The greater fool is the person who sold their house because they read too much Garth Turner.

There's being wrong and then there's being Garth Turner who has been wrong for a decade and people still read his blog? "The troubled future of real estate"

There are smart people out there who consistently make better analysis that is actually relevant to the near future rather than decades off.

 

Garth hit the nail on the head........too much whining and blaming past generations and the world. They need to grow up.

In short, PP and all the moany young people who think they deserve a condo and a six-figure income for not going to work have never experienced truly high rates, seriously runaway inflation or a meaningful recession with debilitating job loss.

Instead, they face a crisis of expectations. Not a real crisis. Things are actually fine.

The kids want to be just like their parents and secure a piece of real estate. Without a big downpayment, of course. Preferably with a 2% mortgage. In the downtown, or close by. Without a commute. And hopefully financed by a job that doesn’t involve, you know, actually going to work. Or sacrificing for a career, which is so Boomerish and sad.

But also understand expectations are unrealistic because you were delivered a stable, prosperous and promising first-world country by people who overcame far worse, burned up years commuting, never knew WFH, paid outrageous interest, clung on through recessions, bowed to bosses and now, in their autumn have accumulated what you crave in your spring.

 

Pretty bad take. Why is he so hung up on interest rates? Who cares about a 19% interest rate at a time when a house costed under 100K? At this stage, after being wrong for so long, I feel he has no relevance left, if he ever had any. His blog is basically entertainment for boomers.

 

Who cares about a 19% interest rate at a time when a house costed under 100K?

Exactly. The mortgage rates are not the big issue when it comes to affordability. The core issue is overpriced real estate with respect to incomes.

Even in the big cities (Toronto, Vancouver) back in the 1980s, when Boomers were getting into real estate, the price-to-income ratio was just 3x to 4x and lower in other cities. This is where the minds of Boomers remains stuck, in the good old days when a normal person could afford a house -- because that's what they experienced! Just save up a few years of income and buy a house.

Today that ratio is more like 10x. I found this graphic showing national incomes vs home prices, and this really shows how house prices and incomes use to be in balance all the way up to about 2005, and since then it's just become worse and worse.

 

Boomers didn't drive up the price of housing.

 

Yes they did.

 

Garth Turner is 74 and has been calling for a Canadian real estate crash for a decade and a half.

Not only is he an out of touch boomer, a politician, self proclaimed financial advisor (who's been completely wrong for over a decade) He's like the king of the saggies. Lots of yapping and no action at all - "journalist, politician etc" His instagram shows he lives a pampered life of luxury in 2 cities, while telling young people to stop whining.

Shame he doesn't actually help anybody. Boomers with multiple houses telling others to stop whining when we have peak homelessness. These are the worst examples of Canadians. Entitles snowflakes with 0 self awareness because they happened to grow up when things were booming and easy.

Not a clue that the whiners he loathes but doesn't offer to help will be his caregivers in a few years.

 

You missed that he successfully operated newspapers, a general store, was a twice elected MP, the Minister of Revenue, renovated two historical buildings, wrote several successful books, and has a popular website with no advertising.

What is on your resume ?

 

The very last thing I am is a Garth Turner fan.

This article does however hit some 'home truths' when it comes to claims of balancing the budget, eliminating the deficit, cutting waste, and increasing things like defense spending. The numbers shine light on these falsehoods....from ANY political party. This does not imply that we do not need a change in fiscal policy because we do IMHO. But false statements and lies are not the way to present or sell that policy.

It also shows how completely empty the statement that 'Canada is broken' really is. It is dog whistle aimed at those who are oblivious to facts and to the world around them. The statement, IMHO, is not worthy of a Leader of the Opposition who aspires to form a Government.

From my perspective, these statements and others including his absurd fire the Bank of Canada Governor and 'crypto will solve inflation' comments are aimed specifically at those who signed up to the CPC in order to vote for PP as leader.

PP and his political advisors should think very carefully about issuing dog whistle statements such as these. They should reflect on how the Barbaric Practices Hotline announcement turned Harper's then projected minority into a Liberal win in the space of 7-10 days mid way through an election campaign. An election that was originally called because CPC political gurus were forecasting a CPC majority, albeit a reduced majority.

There is a reason why many long term CPC members, workers, and experienced former MP's and Cabinet Ministers have walked away from the Party and/or have chosen to remain silent.

 

PP and his political advisors should think very carefully about issuing dog whistle statements such as these.

I guess it's easier for the left to complain about PP and hidden dog whistles that only they can see (or rather, are assigned to them by leftist media) rather than open their eyes to the destruction that Trudeau has done to the country.

 

If person 1 2 and3 and 4 all work 4 days a week and person 5 works 6 days a week then what happens?? I guess tell person 5 you are working to hard and its hurting the others....Just a thought.

 

I have a friend who is an ER physician on Toronto. He recently finished his education, he now makes nearly 400k/yr, and he bought a 900 sqft 70 year old bungalow near where he works, and he told me the bank nearly didn't approve him.....it cost him $1.4 million.

So you're trying to tell me that an ER physician barely being able to afford a 70 year old 900 sqft bungalow is okay?

No wonder we have a doctor shortage.

 

I have a friend who is an ER physician on Toronto. He recently finished his education, he now makes nearly 400k/yr, and he bought a 900 sqft 70 year old bungalow near where he works, and he told me the bank nearly didn't approve him.....it cost him $1.4 million.

So you're trying to tell me that an ER physician barely being able to afford a 70 year old 900 sqft bungalow is okay?

That's a good example.

And I know engineers and architects who can't afford a basic apartment in Vancouver. I recently met a professional architect (woman in her 40s) who is living with a roommate.

 

So your solution is for ER doctors to leave Toronto? People are dying of preventable disease as is.

Not all of them, just the ones that don't want to pay $1.4 million for a shack. Guess what, doctors are needed everywhere. Toronto isn't special.

We know that people lose intelligence with age so we smile and nod to the boomers. Ok boomer is as polite as this can be.

I'm not a boomer and you're not funny. You never have been.

And don't comment on intelligence when you lack the basic ability to understand a comment and reply to what was actually said.

 

From 2022

These Global Cities Have The Highest Cost Of Living

A newly released ranking compares prices and housing costs in more than 200 cities to help employers design compensation for expats. But in a world reshaped by the pandemic, where many companies now let employees work from anywhere, the ranking also suggests where your dollar may go furthest.

www.forbes.com

 

Check the footnote on your chart.

That was nice cherry picking by MrBlackhill!

From 2022

For those that didn't click on the link ...

89	TORONTO	CANADA

 

Check the footnote on your chart.

That was nice cherry picking by MrBlackhill!


For those that didn't click on the link ...

89	TORONTO	CANADA

We were talking housing.

 

Does that apply to the graph you posted (#41) as well?

 

He works at the hospital for sick children, and likes helping kids. That's why he lives in Toronto. It's more important to him than his house. It's just garbage that such an intelligent, accomplished person has to live in a shack in order to work where they want to work.

 

It was a frenzy for years with hundreds of people lined up to "blind bid" on homes. Home prices are where they are because people kept driving them up relentlessly.

Everybody believed real estate was easy money, just buy and flip. People were bragging about their homes "earning" more than they were just for living in it.

People can blame governments, central banks, realtors, contractors but the bottom line is they did it to themselves.

 

People can blame governments, central banks, realtors, contractors but the bottom line is they did it to themselves.

Yes, everyone who voted for Trudeau who is letting in more people than our housing can handle is responsible.

Or you can blame Harper just like Trudeau does. Because he is so arrogant that nothing is ever his fault.

 

Today people are spending tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars on sports cards just because they are 1/1 or considered rare or high grade examples.

They are completely bonkers. It is only cardboard. It is all going to come to a crashing end. Crypto is the same thing. It is speculation run amok.

People have taken leave of their senses and it seems there isn't much common sense left in the world.

It always takes a big crash and a lot of financial pain to set things back on course again. That crash is surely coming in the housing and new car markets.

 

It always takes a big crash and a lot of financial pain to set things back on course again. That crash is surely coming in the housing and new car markets.

Didn't you just trade in 2 new vehicles to finance a $100k Cadillac to "give to the kids"

I personally don't buy new RE or new cars because it's not worth it when BTC is up 129% YTD and 130% over the last 12 months during the worst financial crisis of the decade. When BTC does a 2x the other coins do 10-100x and you can easily profit off the volume and volatility alone if you know how.

People buy 1 of 1 art and hockey cards for many different reasons. That isn't going to change.

 

Home listings are piling up and realtors have no interested buyers. Large apartment condo projects are abandoned with owners living in partially completed buildings and people with large deposits wondering if they will ever get their money back. The "days on the lot" dealer metric is at crazy levels in the US. Already there are dealers with hundreds of new $100k pickup trucks sitting in empty fields that were built in 2022.. The equivalent price of these trucks when freight, sales taxes, and options are added in would be $150k in Canadian dollars. Who is going to buy them ? Auto manufacturers are building vehicles for people that the people can't afford.......go figure.

It isn't the fault of Trudeau, Ford, Poilivere, Tiff, Freeland, Jagmeet, WEF, Soros, or anyone else.....people can look in the mirror to see who to blame.

Canada isn't broken but a lot of people are and just don't know it yet. So they file bankruptcy, their debt is wiped out, they start over again, and life carries on.

Get ready folks.....the **** hawks are coming.

 

Canada isn't broken but a lot of people are and just don't know it yet. So they file bankruptcy, their debt is wiped out, they start over again, and life carries on.

Get ready folks.....the **** hawks are coming.

Finance Minister says she expects the banks to "work with" all the over leveraged people like my landlord who bought multiple new houses during the pandemic.

The finance industry is one of the largest industries in Canada and the banks and house developers are printing cash right meow. Canada and CAD will suffer if Chrystia and Mr "forgive me if I don't think about monetary policy" get their way.

Kids will learn about how the stupidity of our boomers broke Canada. Garth Turner's blog will provide a perfect artifact of NIMBY boomer entitlement and hypocrisy to study.

 

Home prices and inflation are global problems.

 

Ah yes but some countries currencies are suffering insane inflation. Not all currencies are created or managed equally. Especially when you have a government that states it "doesn't think about monetarily policy"

Unless we want to end up like Zimbabwe, Turkey, Lebanon, Sudan, Iran, Argentina, Venezuela etc we probably shouldn't listen to a GM shelf stocker Trudeau fan about monetary who claims inflation is good for GICs.

Many on a Canadian Money Forum seem to understand that inflation is indeed not good for GICs nor is bailing out foreign companies like GM, or financing a $100k luxury SUV at +80 to give to the kids makes any sense.

 

Canadian military is also broken beyond what most Canadians seem to understand.

Certainly not a 74-year old Garth Turner who retired on MP salary to blog daily bs for the last decade to braindead boomers. Even retired military officers are out of touch within a few years but it seems like old Garth never actually was in touch. Typical journalist/politician troll.

The military is currently at war with the boomer mentalities that got us here.

 

Talking about military made me think of this:

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-forces-personnel-leaving-the-ranks-over-lack-of-affordable-housing-senior-officer-warns

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-forces-personnel-leaving-the-ranks-over-lack-of-affordable-housing-senior-officer-warns/wcm/da5d5ce9-4d20-4dc2-9010-d2ece4555682/amp/

 

If memory serves me right I believe Garth advised people in and around the height of the dot com period to borrow everything they could and sink its into tech stocks like Nortel.

 

He's like the CNBC mad money for Canadian boomers. Except I don't think Jim Cramer truly believes what he says and rather pumps exit liquidity for his old hedge fund buddies.

Garth is just dumb and destroyed a lot of middle class wealth by preaching RE would crash. It never did and any union worker like sags would have lost his ability to own a home.

 

I think that it was PM Harper who said that.

 

Sags. Numerous studies have documented that people vote for parties that are actually not in their best interest.

 

Stay tuned.....the crash has only just begun.

 

When timing the market for a "crash" you need to get the timing right. Being off by a decade is no use.

What year did you sell your house? What did you do with that money to be ready to buy back in? GICs have been negative in real terms all these years and all the new vehicles with platinum protection packages are wealth destructive as they always depreciate and cost money to maintain/insure etc.

And what would have happened if you stayed in your house that would be worth +1M today?

 

What can they do to stop a crash ?

 

The military had a big presence in London, Ontario for a long time that included buildings, land, subdivisions, sports complexes, a veterans hospital and nursing home.

It all got downsized, sold off, or repurposed in the 1990s. I worked for a few months in one of the military buildings where people assembled all the wiring harnesses for the first military MOWAG vehicles that GM was building for Canada, the US, and Saudi Arabia in a new assembly plant also located in London beside the locomotive/Terex assembly plant.

The military is a shadow of it's former self in London and other places. None of the political parties care about the military at all.

Chretien sold off everything, Harper closed remaining bases and veteran affairs offices, and Trudeau has done diddly squat for the military since elected.