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Europe is hurting because Russia has cut down its natural-gas supply — but Russia is even worse off: study
Russia's export revenue is overwhelmingly derived from commodities. "These export earnings make up well over half of Russia's total government budget in most years — and presumably, an even larger proportion now," the Yale team wrote.
Its isolation from the west has devastated Russia's strategic hand in negotiating with China and India, notoriously price-conscious buyers who retain close ties to other major commodity exporters," the Yale team wrote.
These countries have not been shy to exploit sanctioned pariah countries before, with China notoriously driving massively discounted oil deals with countries such as Iran and Venezuela with regularity," the authors added.
Even so, the Yale authors argued it's the Russian economy that would be "hurt the most" in the long run by shifting the natural-gas supply chains. That's because the European Union has already agreed to end almost all its oil imports from Russia by the end of this year and has said it will cut coal imports starting in mid-August. European countries including Germany and Italy are also working to wean themselves off Russian gas.
 

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In my view the sanctions were put in place so that Russia would back down and that did not happen. The EU's move away from Russian energy longer term will have a huge impact to Russia. It is likely Russia will see further decline as a nation. It's population will suffer as a result of Putin's insane attempt restore the great Russian Empire. A few questions that remain for me are:

1) Will the Ukraine maintain its borders and and be admitted to the EU
2) Will the EU be able to prosper post conflict due to a lack of energy certainty/price concerns
3) Is there a chance that a global conflict arises with Pelosi's visit to Taiwan?
 

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In my view the sanctions were put in place so that Russia would back down and that did not happen. The EU's move away from Russian energy longer term will have a huge impact to Russia. It is likely Russia will see further decline as a nation. It's population will suffer as a result of Putin's insane attempt restore the great Russian Empire. A few questions that remain for me are:

1) Will the Ukraine maintain its borders and and be admitted to the EU
2) Will the EU be able to prosper post conflict due to a lack of energy certainty/price concerns
3) Is there a chance that a global conflict arises with Pelosi's visit to Taiwan?
Russia has made it untenable for Europe to maintain any interdependency. It is a matter of domestic security that Europe develop alternatives to Russian supply for all strategic goods and resources. Regardless of whether Russia capitulates, Europe has to ensure their domestic security.
 

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Gazprom shares dive after dividend cancelled for first time since 1998

imagine ENB doing this.
That is big news that will impact the Russian market. I haven't really monitored the Russian market prior or after the invasion but the wealth of many Russians may have been decimated at least on paper.
 

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Putin Bans Oil Companies, Banks From Exiting Nation to Year-End
  • Exxon and partners won’t be able to quit Sakhalin-1 oil field
  • Many international firms consider leaving Russia over invasion
    President Vladimir Putin tightened his control over two key sectors of the Russian economy with a decree that bans some foreign banks and energy companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp., from exiting their businesses in the country.

    Exxon and other foreign shareholders in the Sakhalin-1 oil field won’t be allowed to dispose of their holdings until year-end as part of measures “to protect national interests,” according to a decree published on Russia’s legal database. The decree comes just days after Exxon said it was in talksto move its 30% stake in Sakhalin-1 to an unnamed entity.
    Some banks have said they are evaluating option of leaving the country because of the invasion. Russian officials have threatened to block any such moves, saying the nation’s banks are not treated fairly abroad. Many foreign bank units still remain in Russia, including UniCredit SpA, Raiffeisen Bank International AG and Citigroup Inc.

    Citigroup Inc. said last month that it’s considering a “full range of possibilities” on leaving Russia. Raiffeisen has said that exiting the country is one of its options.


 

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Putin Ally Threatens to Kill German Journalist Reporting From Ukraine
Aleksey Zhuravlyov, a member of the Russian Duma and an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, recently threatened to kill a German reporter who has been covering the Russia-Ukraine war.
I don't give a damn, I want to tell this Nazi: B****, all of us will come and kill all of you," he said in the video, which was translated by Davis.
 

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Does Ukraine Have A Stash Of Domestically Developed Ballistic Missiles?
A possible high-profile long-range attack on a Russian airbase has led many to wonder if Ukraine has a pocket arsenal of ballistic missiles.
 

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Does Ukraine Have A Stash Of Domestically Developed Ballistic Missiles?
A possible high-profile long-range attack on a Russian airbase has led many to wonder if Ukraine has a pocket arsenal of ballistic missiles.
Jul 19 Ukraine destroyed a Podlet K1 radar in Kherson Oblast that would detect SRBMs

Yesterday, a Russian TU-134UBL VIP transport flew into Novofedorivka. Today, the base was hit in a Ukrainian strike.

Looks like tactically sound use of very limited SRBMs by Ukraine (y)
 
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Russian Military Vehicles Inside Sensitive Building At Ukraine Nuke Plant
Evidence of Russian military hardware being stored in a turbine building at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as fears of an imminent incident rise.
 

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In my view the sanctions were put in place so that Russia would back down and that did not happen. The EU's move away from Russian energy longer term will have a huge impact to Russia. It is likely Russia will see further decline as a nation. It's population will suffer as a result of Putin's insane attempt restore the great Russian Empire. A few questions that remain for me are:

1) Will the Ukraine maintain its borders and and be admitted to the EU
2) Will the EU be able to prosper post conflict due to a lack of energy certainty/price concerns
3) Is there a chance that a global conflict arises with Pelosi's visit to Taiwan?
It's all about timing

Russia/China demographics and military are as good as they will be for war, and the western military moral and economics are as weak as they will be

Putin and Jinping are both fading boomers from the old world that want to leave a cherry of wartime conquests on their legacies

These grumpy old men played the long game and they only have so much time left
 
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