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Discussion Starter #1
Some of the daily moves have been very large (as percents) but is this selloff really so bad? Here is a survey of some year-to-date performance figures for some "typical" portfolios.

VCNS +0.5%
VBAL -1.4%
XBAL -1.3%
VGRO -3.8%
XGRO -3.4%

I realize the shorter term movements have been somewhat severe, but seems to me that not much has happened since the start of the year for anyone using any kind of stock/bond mix. Even XGRO is showing a pretty mild change.

Doesn't seem that scary
 

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Don't yet have COB today on Morningstar, but MAW104 YTD Mar 5 is 0.27%.

Will edit when/if I see the today's close.
 

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It's not so bad so far. But we don't know what will happen with coronavirus, and how bad the damage to the economy might be. This could all blow away tomorrow, or it can get a hell of a lot worse. We just don't know.
 

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Some are taking the hit, some are not ...

YTD
AC down 31%
SU down 21%
GWO down 12%
TD down 10%
ENB down 1.2%
L up 8%
FTS up 8.5%
 

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My guess is index lows will be sometime in the 4th quarter as a result of Q2 financials reflecting the greatest impact from economic hits. Probably bear territory but some recovery by year end.
 

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I think it'll depend on when the corner is turned and how much "fear" the markets build in during the event. The economic factors might push it even lower afterwards depending on the serverity and duration.
 

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Of course it could be deeper and longer. None of us know anything other than a likely directional perspective.
 

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Discussion Starter #8
There really is so much uncertainty in this situation.

The virus itself is a total wildcard. We really don't know how bad it could get. Maybe everyone is overreacting? Or maybe it's even worse than currently believed. It's *possible* the market is overreacting.

As if that uncertainty isn't enough on its own, there's also the human/panic/economic side. Just the response to the virus is enough on its own to cause economic contraction. And there's no way to model or predict this either. It's crowd behaviour, feedback loops, and all that wacky stuff. The human mind.

My reaction so far is that, given all of this uncertainty and potential for actual business impacts, I'm surprised that stocks are barely down at all year to date. I feel like the stock market is currently pricing in an optimistic outcome.
 

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Not worth spending too much time guessing. I don't intend to do anything about the financial implications on my portfolio. Been there before.

My focus will be on personal health amongst family and the social/living environment around us.
 

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The S&P crashed all the way down to... where it was last October. Erasing a whole 5 months of gains (out of an 11 year bull market). The only reason no one is yawning is that it happened in a week.

At the same time a lot of pundits say this is only the beginning, the Covid 19 or corona virus will go down in history along with the black plague and the spanish flu and will destroy the world economy. I am skeptical having heard such claims before for SARS, bird flu etc etc but, time will tell. I am out of the market and don't plan on getting back in until I see better signs of life.
 

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The S&P crashed all the way down to... where it was last October. Erasing a whole 5 months of gains (out of an 11 year bull market). The only reason no one is yawning is that it happened in a week.

At the same time a lot of pundits say this is only the beginning, the Covid 19 or corona virus will go down in history along with the black plague and the spanish flu and will destroy the world economy. I am skeptical having heard such claims before for SARS, bird flu etc etc but, time will tell. I am out of the market and don't plan on getting back in until I see better signs of life.
The major indexes are still looking flat or slightly up for Trailing Twelve Months.
I don't like to see the red, but really, it's not that bad yet.
 

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My reaction so far is that, given all of this uncertainty and potential for actual business impacts, I'm surprised that stocks are barely down at all year to date. I feel like the stock market is currently pricing in an optimistic outcome.
Some will fall faster than others, especially for those stocks that are already suggesting lower future revenue due to the virus.

I think the next week (maybe two) will tell the most on the fear factor side with the virus community spread numbers and event cancellations. If we do see containment fail badly in North America things could get real ugly.
 

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My YTD is -5% from Jan 01. I had been sitting on ~ 10% cash or equivalents and am starting to deploy that cash. I had 3 limit orders filled on Friday. Still holding lots of cash in HISA waiting further developments. I'm not overly concerned and I'm waiting for more buying opportunities. I opened my first investment account in 1979 so this is not my first rodeo.
 

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I was just looking at some of the low volatility funds like zlu, xmu and zlb and they definitely dropped less then their counterparts. I know there is a lot of debate about the value of holding these funds though. I hold zlb.
 

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My YTD is -5% from Jan 01. I had been sitting on ~ 10% cash or equivalents and am starting to deploy that cash. I had 3 limit orders filled on Friday. Still holding lots of cash in HISA waiting further developments. I'm not overly concerned and I'm waiting for more buying opportunities. I opened my first investment account in 1979 so this is not my first rodeo.
I am down ~4% YTD with about 5% HISA. It is part of my cost of living 'cash reserve' for equity bears (events) such as these. No movement into/out of equities planned for the rest of this year regardless of where the market goes.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
I was just looking at some of the low volatility funds like zlu, xmu and zlb and they definitely dropped less then their counterparts. I know there is a lot of debate about the value of holding these funds though. I hold zlb.
ZLB has been holding up pretty well. I've been watching this one too.
 

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What is good for the bears is the extremes that the decline started from. Surprises should be to the down side going into the 2022 expected low.
 

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Yeah I am down about a decent midsized SUV in last 48 hours
Yeah, I'm down a bunch too.
I am likely down on 1yr,but still up on my 5yr.
Freaky to go through it with a decent portfolio. When my portfolio was small losing 10% was a yawn, now there is a bit of a gasp.
 
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