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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
As the election draws nearer and the possibility of President Trump is looking less incredible... At what point will the stock market start panicking?
 

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Good question mordko.
At the very least some volatility could be a reasonable expectation.

How to benefit from that is another question, maybe impossible to answer.

I guess long term, maybe stick to the plan, for me, keep the powder dry and look for deals in quality stocks, after all, how much damage can a fascist leader do in 8 years :cower:
 

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Trump is very protectionist with his America first rhetoric. He is intent on tearing up NAFTA and THAT would be devastating to Canada's trade with the USA. How many other free trade agreements will he tear up and what tariff barriers will re-surface?

I speculate that formal notice to terminate NAFTA would cause the TSX to potentially fall by 50% and US markets half that. In Canada, only the corps with substantial ex-Canada operations will resist the downdraft. In any event, global GDP will shrink because global trade will be squeezed.
 

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Can a President tear up trade agreements? I doubt it somehow. It would think it would take the House of Rep and senate to do that. Somehow I doubt even the Republicans would go along with such wild protectionism.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
@agent99 - right. He can't tear up trade agreements, unless the Congress plays along. They actually might given that protectionism is gaining cross-party support. There will be other mechanisms for Trump to damage profits, like by banning US companies from setting up shops abroad. Still the likelihood of Trump becoming a President has to be low. Will even a possibility of this scare off the markets as the time draws nearer to November?
 

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I think Trump could get congressional support but even if not, the uncertainty would curtail any incremental business investment to maintain or further NAFTA trade. Neither of the US nor Canadian economies need any new headwinds.
 

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lol.

Nailed it.

Jesus, are people that far out to lunch on the US election too? rofl.
I guess so, btw somebody here, possibly h_p, has already suggested that rolling on the floor 24/7 could result in carpet burns & possibly some nasty infections, you might wanna look into that.
 

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It's already crumbling. Just look at a chart of the S&P and you will notice it peaked a year ago.Since then we have seen two bad drops giving a series of lower highs and lower lows, the hallmark of a falling market.

This is not surprising since we are in the 6th year of the bull market that started in March 2009, and such bull markets last an average of 4 years.

Trump is a businessman. He understands what it takes to get business moving. If he can do something about the Obamacare mess and a few other disastrous government policies the economy will recover after a brief bear market. But, he is not Superman and can only do what the law and Congress allows. So, I don't think he can make much difference either way. The bear market that started a year ago will run its course and Obama will weasel out of any responsibility, like always.
 

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As the election draws nearer and the possibility of President Trump is looking less incredible... At what point will the stock market start panicking?
I don't think the market will panic due to Trump.

Markets will panic when institutions get the idea they need to raise cash fast and I don't think Trump will trigger that.
Looking back, Bush took office in 2000, then followed the fall, a 1929-33 style NASDAQ bear market.
Obama took office in 2008, and yet another spectacular bear market.
But I don't think it is the presidents that triggered it. Economies are cyclical regardless of who the political leaders are. Lots of resources are used to try and blunt or eliminate such cycles, but they persist.

I await the next fall.
 

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do i ever see it differently than the opinion on here:

i am trying to buy more US stock because i think the markets will INCREASE under trump.
Trump is following Reagan to a tee and in the 80's the stock market went crazy under Reagan's rule.

and hey we got trudeau back as prime minister so maybe ill be able to see though 15% interest rates.
 

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do i ever see it differently than the opinion on here:

i am trying to buy more US stock because i think the markets will INCREASE under trump.
imho, some stocks will favour Trump as POTUS, other Hillary... The trick is to figure out which ones :)
Big corps that have a lot of cash broad like AAPL, UTX etc can be under pressure.... On the other hand it may be buying opportunity as Presidents changes , but Fundamentals stay
 

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do i ever see it differently than the opinion on here:

i am trying to buy more US stock because i think the markets will INCREASE under trump.
Trump is following Reagan to a tee and in the 80's the stock market went crazy under Reagan's rule.

and hey we got trudeau back as prime minister so maybe ill be able to see though 15% interest rates.
I'm in this camp!
Don't be a Chump, Vote for Trump!"
 

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