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What do you mean by crash? some people think a meaningless 5% dip is a crash. others think a 10% pullback is a crash. yet others think a 20% correction is a crash.

You can't see them coming until after they start. And even then a crash might not ensue.
 

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DJI the length of the rally from the Aug 21st low to all time high was fib 1.382 x the length of the decline from the Aug 8 to Aug 21 low.

Waves in a correction will often be related by a fib ratio

Aug 8-21 wave A From 21 to all time high wave B of a 4th wave (possible count)

The market is most likely to subdivide higher to new highs once the fourth wave is complete. If the decline from August 8-21 was all of wave 4 the best price pattern look would still be to subdivide higher in a 5th wave which when complete should result in a one degree of trend larger then the 1929 top.

Structurally a decline below an intermediate low by both the transports & Dow @ the same time would be major warning the rally from 09 is finished.

Hindenburg Omens yes for potential crash

Cycles, Oct of the 7th year Dec pattern has a history of crashing
Mars/Uranus potential crash cycle starts Dec 2 2017 which has contained all the crashes of the last 100 years, Not all of the cycles has the
market crashed & the crash can happen anywhere in the 40% of the cycle

Sentiment: Yes for crash potential Large specs record largest short position in VIX

US stock market crash index: No warning as of yet
 

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This question is difficult. People have different opinions on what a "crash" means, and what time frame you're talking about.

Personally I don't think that any serious stock market decline can happen until at least the index falls below its 200 day moving average. This is partially due to a self-fulfilling prophecy. Here are the stock charts of the US index along with every stock market crash since 1900. You can see that in 100% of these past crashes, the index first fell below its 200 day moving average before the significant part of the decline.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1928-01-01&en=1932-01-01&id=p20602619763
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1936-01-01&en=1939-01-01&id=p57668460772
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1960-01-01&en=1963-01-01&id=p04244666807
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=1987-01-01&en=1989-01-01&id=p59925970616
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=1999-01-01&en=2002-01-01&id=p32197003715
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2007-01-01&en=2009-01-01&id=p69577650814

The only close call was in 1987, where Thursday October 15 the index closed right on the 200 day average, then on Friday October 16 closed a little bit below. On Monday October 19 (Black Monday) the index crashed 20%.

I wouldn't count on this always holding true, but it's certainly been the case for over 100 years. By the way, you will not do well in the stock market if you sell the index every time it drops to the 200 day moving average. If you do this, you will forfeit significant returns all for the purpose of avoiding the one crash that occurs every 8 to 15 years on average.

A better strategy is to remain invested and use asset allocation to reduce your risk; make sure you own enough cash, bonds, and gold. Then you won't have to try timing the stock market and avoiding crashes... which is very difficult to do.
 

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Hi:

No crystal ball here, so no idea.

I like crashes though, whether entire market, a special sector like oil, or even an individual company like Home Capital. Nothing like a good crash to execute the "buy low" part of "buy low, sell high".

Hboy54
 

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it may, or may NOT crash....
but then, it wont really matter once little rocket man & the dotard are done with us....
a hard rain's a-gonna fall

 

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Hi:

No crystal ball here, so no idea.

I like crashes though, whether entire market, a special sector like oil, or even an individual company like Home Capital. Nothing like a good crash to execute the "buy low" part of "buy low, sell high".

Hboy54
Yes most of the time good
Have to take the size of the fractal into account could get another 6 decade bear market like British stocks did in the 1700s. A lot of investors were burned buying the B wave rally after the market crashed in 1929
 

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I monitor scrap metal prices. They have dropped $10 mt. So I'm not worried about manufacturing.

If Trump gets to re-election time and looses that would be a correction.
 
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