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I feel we are in a technical market that can be read in different ways that throw crap into the everyone knows theory. This market is to be played and not held. I am looking for an extreme low in nat gas this month and I have just sold gold for a gain looking for a play back in. I also hold gold in a precious metals fund for a longer term hold.

It all sounds crazy but that is where we are and if you you buy and hold you will get destroyed. Play the cycles if you can or stay in cash. I may buy some dividend junk to hold for now but I know disaster is close by. I mentioned FTS before and was right on but now it is high such as it is.

Don't love anything and get ready for anything as we enter the next horrific phase of the bear market.
 

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I mentioned FTS before and was right on but now it is high such as it is.
Glad to see you back after a long time.
What did you mean by FTS?
FTS is trading highly valued at this time, IMO.
But then it's always been over-valued if you ask me, except for the brief period of Oct 2008 - Mar 2009.
 

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I feel we are in a technical market that can be read in different ways that throw crap into the everyone knows theory. This market is to be played and not held. I am looking for an extreme low in nat gas this month and I have just sold gold for a gain looking for a play back in. I also hold gold in a precious metals fund for a longer term hold.

It all sounds crazy but that is where we are and if you you buy and hold you will get destroyed. Play the cycles if you can or stay in cash. I may buy some dividend junk to hold for now but I know disaster is close by. I mentioned FTS before and was right on but now it is high such as it is.

Don't love anything and get ready for anything as we enter the next horrific phase of the bear market.
It is possible that buy-and-hold types make no money over 10 or even 15 years. It's happened in the past. It could happen again.

However, I don't see how those who trade the markets could, on average, do better. There is very little evidence that retail investors (or even professional investors for that matter) are any good at playing the cycles.
 

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Buy and hold will get destroyed?

from page 155 of The Little Book of Behavioural Investing: “At a one-year time horizon, the vast majority of your total return comes from changes in valuation - which are effectively random fluctuations in price. However, at the five-year time horizon, 80 percent of your total return is generated by the price you pay for the investment plus growth in the underlying cash flow.”

I buy and hold for growth of underlying cash flow aka dividends. I dont "play" the markets, I become an owner of great companies that raise their dividends year after year. As the dividend grows, so to does the stock price.

As for FTS, it is still trading slightly above it's 5 year dividend yield average. IMO not exactly not too highly valued, but not a screaming bargain either.

FTS is a great dividend grower, so even at todays price, if you held for the long haul, and if FTS grows the dividend at 7-12% per year I think you would be very happy.
 

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Also glad to see you back Dogcom. After reading a lot of Bernstein and similar strategy books they seem to be making a slam dunk argument for indexing. I'll probably always keep an account for trading, but I'm gradually moving my my funds towards the indexing model. It has been proven that the professionals have not been able to beat the indexes over the long term and I see no reason for that to change now. Also if professionals are unable to do it, why would the small investor be able to?

Probably what is more important is picking the appropriate asset allocation of bonds, cash, domestic equity (small and large cap), foreign equity, emerging markets and gold for your risk tolerance and objectives and sticking to it through thick and thin.
 

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Spidey, I second your thoughts completely.

Get your asset allocation correct, according to your circumstances and risk tolerance, in the first place, and choose a diversified portfolio of broad-based, lowest fee, index products and then avoid trying to time the markets which often leads to jumping in at or near market highs and getting out at or near market lows. That is a mug's game.

The individual investments, which you choose for your portfolio, are not nearly as important as getting the asset allocation right in the first place and then rebalancing periodically only as required to roughly maintain your original target asset allocation.

Put a priority on keeping your management and trading fees as 'little' as possible.

Don't chase after the hottest investments de jour. Usually, you are getting in too late in the cycle and that is a recipe for poor long term portfolio returns.

Most seasoned investors will already know this but this advice might help some of the novices out there.
 

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Get your asset allocation correct, according to your circumstances and risk tolerance, in the first place, and choose a diversified portfolio of broad-based, lowest fee, index products and then avoid trying to time the markets which often leads to jumping in at or near market highs and getting out at or near market lows. That is a mug's game.

The individual investments, which you choose for your portfolio, are not nearly as important as getting the asset allocation right in the first place and then rebalancing periodically only as required to roughly maintain your original target asset allocation.

Put a priority on keeping your management and trading fees as 'little' as possible.

Don't chase after the hottest investments de jour. Usually, you are getting in too late in the cycle and that is a recipe for poor long term portfolio returns.

Most seasoned investors will already know this but this advice might help some of the novices out there.
aren't you the one always complaining about poor investment returns for many years?
if you have been following your own advice then it doesn't say much for this strategy.
 

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I do have my days of different moods depending on market conditions.

For the past six years, my passive, buy-and-hold portfolio of mainly ETF's has produced an annualized return of 6 percent, including reinvested dividends, during a period of great volatility.

While not making me a millionaire, all things considered, I am satisfied with that given all that we have been through.

That doesn't mean that I will stop complaining which is just in my nature.:(
 

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With such volatile markets, it depends on when one measures one's portfolio performance.

If things take a serious turn for the worse, as many pundits are predicting, and you ask me again in a few month's time, my portfolio's annualized return might be much lower.

It's just a snapshot in time.

Up and down like a yo-yo!!!:mad:
 

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Yes index funds will outperform managed funds over the long term. Usually 10 years is used as the benchmark. Shorter periods will often show managed funds with the edge. Choice of period is crucial.
 

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After today's market action, we're all a little poorer--unless per chance you were invested in inverse ETF's. Markets lost approximately 2% of their value today with futures down as well.

Gold expected to rise significantly over the next 6 months as the only non correlated investment currently out there! An increase of $1000 an ounce from these levels is not out of the question.

Buy GLD!!!:D

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/gld
 

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Discussion Starter #15
Thanks spidey and haroldcrump and sorry I didn't reply sooner but I was down in Portland for a few days.

First to mario 1, I do not like going short so easily, like HXD as you mentioned, because even in a secular bear market you will get better rallies then you will see in a bull market.

To CanadianCapitalist buy and hold is great in a secular bull market but does you no good in a secular bear market. I buy and hold solid gold companies in a precious metals fund because gold is in a secular bull market and I also play HGU in this area. And because I went to Portland I sold my HGU for a profit because I wouldn't be around to trade it.

To bellguy I only buy in oversold conditions, so I never buy at a top when everyone else does and I only hold for a few weeks at most. I also like to play the seasons so Nat Gas could be there at the end of this month if it sells off hard from here.

Back to spidey if you like oil from here then you should like Uranium even better in my opinion. But because of where we are now in the market I would not own anything right now except to play.
 

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I feel we are in a technical market that can be read in different ways that throw crap into the everyone knows theory. This market is to be played and not held. I am looking for an extreme low in nat gas this month and I have just sold gold for a gain looking for a play back in. I also hold gold in a precious metals fund for a longer term hold.

It all sounds crazy but that is where we are and if you you buy and hold you will get destroyed. Play the cycles if you can or stay in cash. I may buy some dividend junk to hold for now but I know disaster is close by. I mentioned FTS before and was right on but now it is high such as it is.

Don't love anything and get ready for anything as we enter the next horrific phase of the bear market.
I agree to a certain extent , my only long term hold these days are small/medium cap REITs , the 11-14% (TR.UN is currently paying 16%) distribution makes it worthwhile holding them thru the ups and downs.

After re-investing distributions for a year or two , it really starts to add up.

I currently keep 15% of my portfolio in cash and/or short term trades , I buy and sell on news alone and get out when I can make 7% or better after trading fees , it has been working out very well in these volatile markets.

PDN , CWTR , TKO , CYPB , UUU are just some of my recent trades that have returned 7 - 10% per trade , usually 1 to 2 week holds , and no big losers yet.

It can be kind of gut-wrenching at times so I limit my the amount I put into any one company to about $5000 , assuming I will eventually lose money on a trade gone bad.

"Be fearful when others are greedy , be greedy when others are fearful" (let's see how that quote plays out) , it seems to me that most others are fearful at this time , everyone is waiting and expecting the next crash , it may or may not happen , I have no Idea.
 

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I have sometimes heard that you shouldn't put money in the stock market that you can't afford to lose.

How then, are investors supposed to play the markets when there is always a chance of another great crash and so much apprehension out there. After all, we are 'playing' with our life savings and the money that we will need for retirement.

It's quite disconcerning for this older investor and I'm sure that others feel the same way.

And yet, we are told that we need to be in the market so that we don't run out of money in our retirement.

That's precisely what I'm afraid of by being IN the market.

My parents taught me to not trust the stock market and here I am invested in it even with all of the dire warnings that are currently out there.

If I could make 6 percent on GIC's right now, I think that is the way that I would go.

The stock markets carry too much uncertainty and I don't have the skills to day trade it and I don't want to pay exorbitant fees to have a third party manage my portfolio for me.

Many of these anxieties come from my approaching my 70's and would be less so if I were in my 30's or 40's with a longer time horizon.

Just what does "don't put money in the stock markets that you can't afford to lose" mean anyway when it comes to one's retirement nest egg???:confused:
 

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I think it means that you keep the portion needed to live on in safe investments (like annuties) and invest the rest in equities to acount for inflation long term. I know this advice is tough to follow when interest-type rates are low.

But the other conclusion is that, if you must garner equity-type returns to sustain your retirement, then you should keep working.

If choice A or choice B are not acceptable, then you just cannot follow this advice. You take your chances and hope for the best. The other choice C is to reduce your outflow until choice A or B works for you. This often means living on CPP and OAS.
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Furgy is sort of playing it the way I like to. I would like to just be in cash waiting until the crash runs its course but of course there is no guarantee that a crash will happen. So like belguy says rates are very low forcing us to have risk exposure especially if we are wrong on deflation and they somehow crank out high inflation through money printing.

I picked up XFN today figuring it is oversold and I can make a buck on that. I could just pick up a bank stock but I figured I may as well have a little MFC and so on mixed in. I am not looking for miracles here and when this pick gets a bit over bought I will dump it and probably buy something else oversold. Also because many things move together I may consider a bear fund when everything looks overbought.
 
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