I don't know the specific answer to your question, but I remember reading a financial book (I can't remember which one), which suggested that if investors give themselves a chance to use their own logic they can often make accurate assessment of investing opportunities. (And probably have as good a track record as the gurus.)
For example, there are certain trends that most of us can see taking place in society:
North American, European and Japanese populations are aging.
China, India and other developing economies will continue to expand.
Fossil fuels will continue to be depleted (not in small part due to the previous point).
The US is taking on an enormous amount of debt.
The world continues to become more economically interconnected (although this may stall at times due to the financial crisis).
The North American auto sector is contracting.
There is a trend toward "greener" solutions.
So you can take any one or a combination of those points (or others as well) as the starting point for investment decisions.
As for the gurus, it may sound totally contradictory, but I've learned to "take seriously everything they say" and to "not place too much reliance in anything they say".
For example, there are certain trends that most of us can see taking place in society:
North American, European and Japanese populations are aging.
China, India and other developing economies will continue to expand.
Fossil fuels will continue to be depleted (not in small part due to the previous point).
The US is taking on an enormous amount of debt.
The world continues to become more economically interconnected (although this may stall at times due to the financial crisis).
The North American auto sector is contracting.
There is a trend toward "greener" solutions.
So you can take any one or a combination of those points (or others as well) as the starting point for investment decisions.
As for the gurus, it may sound totally contradictory, but I've learned to "take seriously everything they say" and to "not place too much reliance in anything they say".
