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I just mean I don't sell all out at once or buy all in at once because anything can happen. I scale in and out with about 10-30% but I try to keep 80% invested in my strongest convictions that pay a healthy yield
Wellll, that would indicate significant lack of conviction on my part haha. Being "partly out" because you anticipate a major correction is like being a little pregnant, or slightly obese. It's one or the other. I think I'll hold on only to my ORGN position: it's an ambitious start-up that has a patented carbon-negative mass production process. (Plastic bottles, etc) Their insiders keep buying their own stock, which makes it an even more alluring buy... I fully expect my 2024 leap calls to become multi-baggers. :)

We're hooked on stimulus and I expect it to end but I don't think significant rate hikes will help the market, which has been propped up since 2008.
Yup. The rest omicron panic (without any actual clinical data to go with it) just showed how fragile the current situation is, imho. Seeing random stuff like RIVN (which produced more powerpoint decks than actual cars) obtain sky-high market caps right after the IPO... If that's not a tulip mania, I don't know what is. But like I said, I accept that I might be wrong. If the market is still in one piece in mid-April, I'll re-enter. :)

On average, “buying the dip” trails investing a lump sum by a wide margin over 10-year periods.
That's the problem with average people: they're basic. :p To quote George Carlin, “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

This may be hubris, but I was a wildly successful financial analyst before I retired at 34 :cool:, and I played the last dip in early 2020 perfectly, to the point where I tripled my money within a year. If I'm wrong about this, I'll miss 4 months of potential profits. If I'm right about this, I could probably boost my portfolio by 50% or so. (Not all stocks fall equally. Some fall much lower than others.)

Four months from now, we'll all re-read these comments and either laugh or admire the foresight hahaha
 

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I could probably boost my portfolio by 50% or so
So you expect to buy a -33% dip within the next 4 months? And that would be -33% from your sell point to your buy point, not from the stock market perspective (peak to bottom).

I'll be very happy to see how this will unfold.
 

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How would you like that?

Equity strategists at Bank of America told clients to focus on dividends and growth given their forecast for slightly negative price returns for the S&P 500 over the coming decade.

"Total return is the number to optimize, and we see dividend preservation and growth as the single most important criteria for stock selection, which could potentially be the difference between a flat-to-negative and positive return over the next 10 years in the S&P 500," they said.
Their year-end forecast for the benchmark index, based on their five-factor framework, stood at 4,600.
 
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