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I just mean I don't sell all out at once or buy all in at once because anything can happen. I scale in and out with about 10-30% but I try to keep 80% invested in my strongest convictions that pay a healthy yield
Wellll, that would indicate significant lack of conviction on my part haha. Being "partly out" because you anticipate a major correction is like being a little pregnant, or slightly obese. It's one or the other. I think I'll hold on only to my ORGN position: it's an ambitious start-up that has a patented carbon-negative mass production process. (Plastic bottles, etc) Their insiders keep buying their own stock, which makes it an even more alluring buy... I fully expect my 2024 leap calls to become multi-baggers. :)

We're hooked on stimulus and I expect it to end but I don't think significant rate hikes will help the market, which has been propped up since 2008.
Yup. The rest omicron panic (without any actual clinical data to go with it) just showed how fragile the current situation is, imho. Seeing random stuff like RIVN (which produced more powerpoint decks than actual cars) obtain sky-high market caps right after the IPO... If that's not a tulip mania, I don't know what is. But like I said, I accept that I might be wrong. If the market is still in one piece in mid-April, I'll re-enter. :)

On average, “buying the dip” trails investing a lump sum by a wide margin over 10-year periods.
That's the problem with average people: they're basic. :p To quote George Carlin, “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

This may be hubris, but I was a wildly successful financial analyst before I retired at 34 :cool:, and I played the last dip in early 2020 perfectly, to the point where I tripled my money within a year. If I'm wrong about this, I'll miss 4 months of potential profits. If I'm right about this, I could probably boost my portfolio by 50% or so. (Not all stocks fall equally. Some fall much lower than others.)

Four months from now, we'll all re-read these comments and either laugh or admire the foresight hahaha
 

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I could probably boost my portfolio by 50% or so
So you expect to buy a -33% dip within the next 4 months? And that would be -33% from your sell point to your buy point, not from the stock market perspective (peak to bottom).

I'll be very happy to see how this will unfold.
 

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How would you like that?

Equity strategists at Bank of America told clients to focus on dividends and growth given their forecast for slightly negative price returns for the S&P 500 over the coming decade.

"Total return is the number to optimize, and we see dividend preservation and growth as the single most important criteria for stock selection, which could potentially be the difference between a flat-to-negative and positive return over the next 10 years in the S&P 500," they said.
Their year-end forecast for the benchmark index, based on their five-factor framework, stood at 4,600.
 

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Had a chance to review this thread today. I am sure there are several threads on CMF talking about all time highs. I think it is interesting to note that none of us guessed when the correction would be but this post stood out for me. As market timing is certainly a fools game I deployed quite a bit of cash in Q1. I have a diversified portfolio of Can stocks, US stocks and ADRs. Not sure if VEQT,, or similar would be the appropriate benchmark but I am outperforming that. It would be what I would buy if I were to index. Perhaps @GL from QC will pop back in over the summer to let us know what he has done so far in 2022.


I know, I know - trying to predict the market is a fool's game haha. There are always unknown unknowns - random chaotic developments we can't imagine. However, every future is based on what's happening right now. 2021 was a unique year in that a) none of the Americans had federal student loan payments, and b) average people made more ridiculously easy money on stocks/crypto than at any point since 1999. (Or at least the wallstreetbets-induced mania matched what I imagined had happened at the height of the dotcom bubble.)

I made sure to set aside a large amount of my own stock profits, specifically for tax purposes. I imagine most people didn't do that. (Most people live 2 weeks at a time, paycheck to paycheck.) The student loans will resume on February 1. People's taxes will be due on April 15, and they'll start to realize just how much they owe starting early February, with the major liquidation happening at some point between then and early April. This is a push-pull double whammy.

Like I said, if I'm wrong about this, I will lose 4 months' worth of stock-trading profit. If I'm right... That'll be pretty interesting. :)


Alas, nobody does their annual taxes in January - if only because their employers don't bother to send out the paperwork till sometime in February. :) Realistically, you can probably hope for March-ish. I would be surprised (but not shocked) to see a crash in February, but I think it's least likely to happen in January. Good luck to us all.
 

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I think it is interesting to note that none of us guessed when the correction would be but this post stood out for me. As market timing is certainly a fools game I deployed quite a bit of cash in Q1.
I was selling in Q4 and was 2nd guessing it was too early but happy with that decision especially now

Impossible to time the exact top but there were lots of signals last year. The less I listen to the collective hive mind noise the better it seems to work

I made a thread at the start of the pandemic about how the market seems very slow to react. Lots of noise out there to ignore
 

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I recall you mentioning we were near a top. If you happen to have a link to the thread referenced above I would love to give it a read. Although hindisght is 20-20, I see value in looking back through old posts to compare mindset to outcome. I know many people only look at the most recent posts and move on. Not I.
 

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I recall you mentioning we were near a top. If you happen to have a link to the thread referenced above I would love to give it a read. Although hindisght is 20-20, I see value in looking back through old posts to compare mindset to outcome. I know many people only look at the most recent posts and move on. Not I.
Global Financial Crisis 2.0
Mar 4, 2022 I made a thread that credit default swap were pricing in a major financial crisis. A few weeks later I posted in that thread the 10-year bonds inverted with the 2-year which is an even stronger indicator that trouble was on the horizon

Evergrande Crisis
Sept 27. 2021 I was cashing out last year mostly due to the financial situation in China. I thought debt issues in China could be a catalyst to trigger underlying problems that were being ignored all around the world. Everyone forgot China now but the issues are still there
 
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