That study I referenced looked at global markets. As I quoted: "six individual country stock indexes, the MSCI World index, and the MSCI World ex-US index"
Where to park money at alltime highs?
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Wellll, that would indicate significant lack of conviction on my part haha. Being "partly out" because you anticipate a major correction is like being a little pregnant, or slightly obese. It's one or the other. I think I'll hold on only to my ORGN position: it's an ambitious start-up that has a patented carbon-negative mass production process. (Plastic bottles, etc) Their insiders keep buying their own stock, which makes it an even more alluring buy... I fully expect my 2024 leap calls to become multi-baggers.
Yup. The rest omicron panic (without any actual clinical data to go with it) just showed how fragile the current situation is, imho. Seeing random stuff like RIVN (which produced more powerpoint decks than actual cars) obtain sky-high market caps right after the IPO... If that's not a tulip mania, I don't know what is. But like I said, I accept that I might be wrong. If the market is still in one piece in mid-April, I'll re-enter.
That's the problem with average people: they're basic.
To quote George Carlin, “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”This may be hubris, but I was a wildly successful financial analyst before I retired at 34
, and I played the last dip in early 2020 perfectly, to the point where I tripled my money within a year. If I'm wrong about this, I'll miss 4 months of potential profits. If I'm right about this, I could probably boost my portfolio by 50% or so. (Not all stocks fall equally. Some fall much lower than others.)Four months from now, we'll all re-read these comments and either laugh or admire the foresight hahaha
Had a chance to review this thread today. I am sure there are several threads on CMF talking about all time highs. I think it is interesting to note that none of us guessed when the correction would be but this post stood out for me. As market timing is certainly a fools game I deployed quite a bit of cash in Q1. I have a diversified portfolio of Can stocks, US stocks and ADRs. Not sure if VEQT,, or similar would be the appropriate benchmark but I am outperforming that. It would be what I would buy if I were to index. Perhaps @GL from QC will pop back in over the summer to let us know what he has done so far in 2022.
I know, I know - trying to predict the market is a fool's game haha. There are always unknown unknowns - random chaotic developments we can't imagine. However, every future is based on what's happening right now. 2021 was a unique year in that a) none of the Americans had federal student loan payments, and b) average people made more ridiculously easy money on stocks/crypto than at any point since 1999. (Or at least the wallstreetbets-induced mania matched what I imagined had happened at the height of the dotcom bubble.)
I made sure to set aside a large amount of my own stock profits, specifically for tax purposes. I imagine most people didn't do that. (Most people live 2 weeks at a time, paycheck to paycheck.) The student loans will resume on February 1. People's taxes will be due on April 15, and they'll start to realize just how much they owe starting early February, with the major liquidation happening at some point between then and early April. This is a push-pull double whammy.
Like I said, if I'm wrong about this, I will lose 4 months' worth of stock-trading profit. If I'm right... That'll be pretty interesting.
Alas, nobody does their annual taxes in January - if only because their employers don't bother to send out the paperwork till sometime in February.
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