[dogcom]

Looking at the markets today my feelings are that I am neither bullish or bearish going into October. I feel that there is neither high greed or fear in the market today. On the fear front I believe people have become much more use to the idea the markets can tank and are now better prepared or mentally ready for that. On the greed front they are far more cautious about chasing markets higher.

At this time in 2008 I think everyone was uneasy but stayed the course, even though it didn't feel right and it turns out that their gut was right. Last year at this time I believe people felt it could get very ugly, but there were no signs or indications to confirm that feeling like there was in 2008. This year it looks and feels like will go nowhere and just stay in a trading pattern. Of course this can change if statistics, the US elections or world events swing us hard one way or the other and that is now what we are waiting for.

On gold, I feel that $1300 this year has been whispered so much into everyones ears, that I feel we will get close to or top that, at which time I believe you will probably get a good opportunity to short it. Looking back at oil when it was a $100 I remember hearing $150 whispered into everyones ears and that is where we went to or almost before the bottom fell out. I don't think however the gold bull market will end at $1300 and will go much higher over the next few years.

 

[John_Michaels]

I'm not much of a gold bug.

My gut says the market (TSX/S&P) is still too optimistic. My guess is that we'll end up 7.5% (how's THAT )by year-end but next year reality will set in and we'll end 2011 down 10% from that....so, a rut for 2 more years.

Reasons (general US & Canada) being;
> Consumer Debt is too high, deleveraging will continue
> Unemployment will fall but not by a significant amount
> Real Estate won't recover until it's significantly below the long term average (say another 3-5 years) due to a) it was a very high bubble, b) people retire and there will be a glut of homes in 2-4 years....this really affects how people feel about their situation
>increased taxes in the US to pay for <insert stuff here>

I believe the equivalent stock rise of 1994/1995 won't happen until 2013/2014.

 

[John_Michaels]

oops, forgot to indicate what I'm doing..

Still investing in the market, targeting dividends (I'm a dividend bug?) and NatGas/Oil. Not much Fixed/Bonds/T-bills. Trying to time the market when it goes 5%-7% down.

 

[Belguy]

Buy, hold and prosper.

Gold at $2000 before you know it.

Oil will be significantly higher than it is now in the years ahead.

I like the emerging economies going forward.

Black Swan events can always come out of left field and cause a market drop but then recoveries inevitably follow.

Market volatility will be a fact of life for quite a while. Either you can live with it or you can't.

Buy low. Sell high. However, don't get that backwards!!

Market timing is one tough game!! Even the experts seldom get that right.

A portfolio of dividend paying stocks from solid companies with a history of increasing their dividends is likely to be a good way to invest in these market conditions.

That said, I invest in a diversified portfolio of broad-based ETF's.

 

[dogcom]

At the moment it looks like solid dividends are what people are looking for like you guys are saying as an alternative to bonds.

Other then dividends or gold it seems that nobody is saying they are interested in risk. On Black Swans you will probably face more of those because of the times we are in so be aware of that.

 

[sags]

Interesting to see what corporate "insiders" are doing.

According to Bloomberg news, the sellers outnumber the buyers by a ratio of 650 -1.................hmmmm.

Maybe they know something they aren't telling the rest of us.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-outpaces-buying-over-650-1-past-week

 

[kcowan]

Often insider selling is a matter of asset allocation. It used to be a major factor. I am not sure it is anymore. Of course, I am not sure of anything anymore.

As to going forward, I foresee a market level that is equal to where it is today out 3 years. How we get there is anybody's guess!

Pay Daddy now. No more speculation. As long as I get paid to wait, I am not concerned. I am concerned about the low levels of dividend yield, but it looks good compared to GICs.

 

[warp]

Belguy,

care to share what broad based ETF's you are in,,,and what dividend payers you own?

thanks,

Anthony

 

[Belguy]

Anthony, here are some of my investments but always do your own due diligence to determine what is suitable for you as far as individual investments and asset allocation are concerned:

Claymore Canadian Fundamental ETF (CRQ)
iShares Dow Jones Canada Select Value Index Fund (XCV)
iShares S&P/TSX Smallcap Index Fund (XCS)
iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index Fund (XRE)

Power Shares FTSE RAFI U.S. 1000 ETF (PRF)
Vanguard U.S. Value ETF (VTV)
Vanguard U.S Small-Cap ETF (VB)

Vanguard Europe-Pacific ETF (VEA)
iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (EFV)
Vanguard All World ex-U.S. Small-Cap (VSS)

This is based on the Uber-Tuber ETF portfolio as shown in the model portfolios at www.canadiancouchpotato.com
Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)

For dividends:

PH&N Dividend Income Fund Series D
iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY)
SPDR S&P International Dividend ETF (DWX)

RBC Global Precious Metals Fund Series D (5% of portfolio)

For bonds:

iShares Short term bond ETF (XSB)

I have a few additional ETF investments but these are the main broad-based ones.

 

[Belguy]

According to NBC Nightly News, there is an alarming rise in poverty currently in the U.S.

In the richest country on earth, 14.3% of the population is living below the poverty line which is $22,000 for a family of four. That's a staggering 43.6 MILLION Americans or one in seven (one in five children) who are growing up poor. Child poverty is currently at the same level as it was back in the 60's.

25% of blacks and hispanics are currently unemployed.

51 million Americans, or one in six, have zero health care coverage.

95,000 American families lost their homes to foreclosure in August which is an increase of 25% over the same month last year.

For many Americans, this situation is becoming a way of life as there is no prospect of good paying jobs coming back anywhere on the horizon.

The Dow is below where it was over ten years ago with little prospect of significant gains for many years ahead as the economy stagnates.

It's a very grim picture all told.

 

[osc]

According to NBC Nightly News, there is an alarming rise in poverty currently in the U.S.

In the richest country on earth, 14.3% of the population is living below the poverty line which is $22,000 for a family of four. (

The rise in poverty and the rich getting richer generally is bullish. US's rise to superpower status was based on slave labor and later on the exploitation of the uneducated poor. China's "amazing" growth is nothing but exploitation of slave-like labor.
Also the return to power of the right wing nuts, now crazier than ever, is bullish. That is in short term till next bubble burst a few years down the road.

 

[sags]

KC......don't tell me you have fallen prey to the Kevin O'Leary spell......

Belguy,

You forgot to mention a few other tidbits:

The US housing market is teetering on the edge of another steep, downward spiral into the abyss. Government intervention accomplished nothing more than kicking the can down the road a few feet. Banks are holding millions of homes on their books, because they don't want to dump them on the market.
Qualified buyers are worth their weight in gold. Even the VP of Wells Fargo was discussing the difficulty that he had refinancing his own home. What is it like for everyone else trying to borrow from leery bankers?

Baby boomers are approaching retirement, or at least they were until the wheels fell off their investments or their jobs. Selling their home was the way that many were going to fund their retirement. They might still be able to sell their home, but not for nearly as much as it used to be. A few more million homes for sale won't help the situation either.

People are in debt up to their eyeballs. The heady days of refinancing the home and paying off the credit cards to start afresh are gone. Now debt payment has to be done the old fashioned way by paying month after month after month........for year after year after year...........while not re-using the credit to finance a lifestyle they can't afford on their income. Been there and done that........and believe me it wasn't a whole lot of fun. It is difficult to give up a lifestyle enjoyed for a few decades.

Governments are up to their eyeballs in debt, and financial help for the masses is going to be harder to come by in the future. At some point, the cost of borrowing for the Government is going to rise with the default risk.

It all looks rather doomsday-ish, when it is collected together in one thread, doesn't it.

But it is what it is, and we can recognize it or just pretend it doesn't exist.

I think the best advice right now, is just to keep your money close and safe, and hope that the value of the currency doesn't fall off a cliff. There isn't much any of us can do to prepare for that.........unless you want to start canning beans and raising chickens.

 

[hboy43]

I think the best advice right now, is just to keep your money close and safe, and hope that the value of the currency doesn't fall off a cliff. There isn't much any of us can do to prepare for that.........unless you want to start canning beans and raising chickens.

I blanche and freeze my beans. No chickens yet though. Had pigs a few years ago, but they were a money losing proposition once their primary job was done - clearing more land for expanding the garden ... to grow more beans.

I am selling the rental house and the poroceeds from same will reduce our debt to < $100K. I held that house since 1985 and doubt it kept up with inflation. Buy at 88K, sell at net about 266K, 40K capital improvements, usual maintenance, 25 years, you do the math. My thinking has evolved to "the optimum quantity of real estate is zero." So I am down to one at least. My plan is to never buy or sell a property ever again, I expect to leave this place horizontally.

I have 2 asset classes: equity and agriculture. Don't do fixed income. As far as equity goes, these days I am mostly sitting on the fence, it is not clear we are either "high" or "low". I just collect the dividends and look forward to the increases beginning to roll in again one day. With my leverage mostly gone with the house sale, I wait patiently for the next world panic/massive buying opportunity. As for the real estate equity component, I think some capital improvements will be in order, chiefly more insulation so the old man version of me only needs 3 to 4 cords of firewood annually as opposed to 6 or 7 now between the house and workshop.

Agriculturally, I have a modern tractor and basic impliments. My main garden is 3000 square feet. I am prepping 3/4 acre plot in the field - buckwheat followed by winter rye this year, probably repeat again next year. I have the beginnings of an orchard, but it is mostly a disappointment thus far. I don't actually produce a significant portion of my food, but if I had to, I should be ready to go. Presumably if she were hungary enough, my wife would pitch in and help. I do my own firewood.

I know many here will think "guns and bunkers" about me, but that is fine. I mostly do it because it is in my blood I guess. I recall as a child the wonder that was the food garden the my grandparent's back yard. I have never come close to the productivity that garden had, but I see improvements. After some decades it occurred to me that while the rest of you are discussing holding gold to one day in a world panic situation still have something of value in order to buy food, why not skip the middleman and just be prepared to grow the food. In the mean time, I get to eat real tomatoes and carrots instead of unreasonable facsimiles, and I get plenty of fresh air and exercise. I get to live in what is a de facto park, surrounded by more de facto park - half the township is crown land.

I used to work in software at a peak of $600/day IIRC. Man, life is much better now out here in the bush. A day working on my firewood might be worth $75 in economic terms, but it is a much better day than the old life.

Am I wealthy because my family has a high net worth, or am I wealthy because I don't NEED a high net worth?

hboy43

 

[Square Root]

Such a diversity of opinion! You guys might as well be talking heads on BNN. Nobody knows rather most people just talk their own books up.