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This is such a fascinating time. I really find this kind of uncertainty to be exciting and fun.

The future can play out many different way ...

All of these seem plausible to me. I also find it interesting that the average forecast (which is likely what banks and REITs are pricing today) does not capture the fact that there's an enormous difference between worst case & best case ...

Good luck to all gamblers out there!
Hmmm ... so back when the market said DFN-PA was worth $8, the market had it right where there was, from what I recall you writing - lots of hidden risk. Now for REITs, the market has it wrong because it's missing out on the risks.

Maybe .... just maybe - the market isn't always right and isn't always as efficient.


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Hmmm ... so back when the market said DFN-PA was worth $8, the market had it right where there was, from what I recall you writing - lots of hidden risk. Now for REITs, the market has it wrong because it's missing out on the risks.

Maybe .... just maybe - the market isn't always right and isn't always as efficient.
I think you have to re-read what I wrote. I said that the range of possible outcomes is very wide here. The current price is somewhat of an average scenario forecast which seems correct -- it may be a rational pricing. But pricing is a one dimensional thing (it's a scalar number) which cannot capture the huge range of possible outcomes.

I do agree that the market isn't right, isn't always efficient, but I think REIT pricing today might be about right. But at the same time, I think pricing is incapable of reflecting the huge uncertainty of where this could go.
 

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Myself, I think REITs are in for a lot of pain. These are leveraged financial entities (like banks) and we are possibly heading into a very bad environment for real estate and commercial property.
...
I wouldn't be surprised if REITs turn out to be one of the worst, chronically underperforming sectors going forward. Already in the recent stimulus driven rally, REITs have underperformed. This indicates that institutions are selling them into the strength.
I would agree that if you really want to invest in REITs, it's best to use an ETF.
if there is 1 sector where you should stock pick instead of index, it is REITs.
There are a small subset of REITs that have performed spectacularly (compared to other REITs, I mean, not tech stocks, obviously).
Vast majority of REITs are unappetizing...meh stocks.

Speaking of spectacular performers, look at how Milestone Apartments turned out for investors...a few others have been mentioned upthread, such as Pure Industrial.
but the vast majority of REITs are dead money (Artis, Dundee Office, etc...)....understand the sector, do your research, and stock pick a small handful of REITs.....pass on these ETFs
 

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I think you have to re-read what I wrote. I said that the range of possible outcomes is very wide here ...
I do agree that the market isn't right, isn't always efficient, but I think REIT pricing today might be about right. But at the same time, I think pricing is incapable of reflecting the huge uncertainty of where this could go.
So what's different that one investment pricing is incapable of reflecting risk while for another, it does?

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So what's different that one investment pricing is incapable of reflecting risk while for another, it does?
Not much of a difference, and we're not discussing DFN.PA here.

I don't have a team of editors reviewing everything I type, looking at my entire posting history, and finding all possible incongruencies.
 
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