[james4beach]

James, of course you're correct in that you must compare apples to apples, so it's a requirement to chart Total Return as you say. In that regard, XCG is fairly close to the index (XIC.TO) as you can see by the attached chart.

That's pretty interesting, thanks for posting. You're right. For that long time period, XCG doesn't look very different from XIC.

... from all the various schemes you have followed over the years and can't imagine why you would want to switch to an ETF and accept index returns when yours are so much higher?

It's true that my various schemes are beating the TSX. At the moment, I still like both my 5-pack and growth stock picks and both are outperforming.

Just because they've done well in the last few years (maybe 3 or 4 years) doesn't necessarily mean they will beat the TSX in the long term. This is what I worry about. I'm not convinced that my outperformance will persist long term.

4 years isn't much of a track record yet AND we've been in a market that's generally been rising this whole time. I do actually feel a bit more confident now that my stock picks have done well through the 2020 crash, but it still wasn't much of a crash. And it certainly isn't a bear market.

This is, so far, a pretty easy market to invest in. But what happens once we have a real bear market, with severe declines and multiple years of losses?

 

[Pluto]

Nope, I don't really have any other criteria to determine if it's a growth stock or not. Once I've established it's a growth stock, then it might be a growth stock that's doing well or a growth stock that doing poorly. Doesn't change what it is, it just tells me when to buy or sell a growth stock. That is the same with any type of stock, growth or dividend.

ltr

If your only criteria is div < 2%, then as long as that parameter is met, its doing well. Is that what you are saying?

 

[like_to_retire]

If your only criteria is div < 2%, then as long as that parameter is met, its doing well. Is that what you are saying?

No, I'm saying I categorize stocks into two 'types' - Growth or Dividend.

Their 'performance' isn't considered in that determination.

I'm honestly having trouble understanding what your confusion is, unless you're just messing with me for some reason?

ltr

 

[Pluto]

No, I'm saying I categorize stocks into two 'types' - Growth or Dividend.

Their 'performance' isn't considered in that determination.

I'm honestly having trouble understanding what your confusion is, unless you're just messing with me for some reason?

ltr

No, I'm not messing with you.
I'm trying to clarify what you are talking about.
So far, I have if a stock pays < 2% dividend it is automatically a growth stock for you. You don't use any other criteria to determine growth, just div < 2%. So I don't get it.

 

[Pluto]

Update:

 

[Eder]

You can't do better than the index silly.

 

[MrBlackhill]

20% CAGR on the long term? That's my goal.

Or maybe I just missed the best decade of the last 50 years.

 

[Pluto]

20% CAGR on the long term? That's my goal.

Or maybe I just missed the best decade of the last 50 years.

Nope, there will be more best decades.
Even in bad decades, there are growth stocks.
You only need one or two good growth stocks in a life time, said Lynch. That doesn't mean you only buy one or two, it means you buy a bunch and out of that bunch if one or two are really good, then mission accomplished.

My formula, in essence is,
1. Above average eps growth over say, 10 years.
2. a] Above average ROE. b] medium to low debt.

3. Stable expanding industry. No boom and bust mining oil type stuff. Look at CAE over the decades, for example. WOW.
4. Credible management and corporate culture.

20% CAGR is doable. Even if one got 15% its nothing to cry about.

 

[doctrine]

Goeasy is my go-to growth stock. Some of the easiest money I ever make on pullbacks. A little high priced now and I sold my position but made 100%+ in 6 months.

 

[MrBlackhill]

Goeasy is my go-to growth stock. Some of the easiest money I ever make on pullbacks. A little high priced now and I sold my position but made 100%+ in 6 months.

I agree, GSY definitely bounced back pretty quickly. There's also DOO which I didn't expect but it dropped -70% in a month and then 4 months later it was back to all-time highs, but it dropped recently. Very high beta (3.33).

 

[Pluto]

I don't trade much anymore but I did sell HDI. The story seems to be earnings got a boost from the lockdowns - People having cash pile up and redoing the dining room with hardwood or something like that. So I figured I'd take the money and run, and maybe buy it back later.

Hung on to GSY however. PEG is still less than 1. I figure if the PEG gets up to the 1.5 - 2 range, I may trim. Otherwise, its a keeper.