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Discussion Starter #23
Are you looking at total return? Your comment about with or without dividends seems to imply you are not?

Total return is all that matters.
good point. I'm talking about total return.
 

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Using Canadastockchannel calculator provides some interesting data.

For example (since Jan 1 2004~15 years), Total returns of stocks I had on Jan 1st 2004 (Also had some etfs and MFs back then plus bonds & GICs.

TSX
with dividends reinvested XIU 7.2% XIC 7.04%
with dividends not reinvested XIU 6.66% XIC 6.31%

BANKS
with dividends reinvested BMO 8.72% BNS 9.55% TD 12.32% NA 11.56% RY 12.03%
with dividends not reinvested BMO 6.69% BNS 8.02% TD 10.43% NA 9.42% RY 10.12%

OTHERS
with dividends reinvested BCE 9.09% EIF 19.01% TRP 8.45% EMA 10.56% REI 10.75% MX 15.45
with dividends not reinvested BCE 7.18% EIF 13.77% TRP 7.06% EMA 8.63% REI 7.88% MX 13.67

BASEMENT
with dividends reinvested PWF 5.35% L 1.97% POW 4.65%
with dividends not reinvested PWF 4.6% L 1.28% POW 4.0%

What I found interesting:
- XIU/XIC underperformed the banks, utilities and other dividend payers on a Total Return basis
- Even without re-investing dividends, the dividend payers provided excellent portfolio growth beating out XIU's Total Return (incl divs)
- EIF (Exchange Income Fund) was best performer! MX was second.
 

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Yes, in this ultra low interest environment, dividend stocks in the TSX have done well and outperformed average. (The same does not apply to US stocks by the way).

Do you think the same outperformance will happen going forward, if rates rise significantly?
 

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Yes, in this ultra low interest environment, dividend stocks in the TSX have done well and outperformed average. (The same does not apply to US stocks by the way).

Do you think the same outperformance will happen going forward, if rates rise significantly?
Interest rates go up in order to slow down the economy and keep inflation in check. So yes, as interest rates increase, I expect businesses and therefore share prices to do well.

Go back and check market performance vs interest rates last time there was an extended period of growth in interest rates. Say 1960 to 1980.
 

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I keep seeing GOOS go up but to me these will be the next Crocs. I don't see anything proprietary about a down filled jacket. Mind you I said the same thing about Lululemon
 

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Discussion Starter #29
Wow, this is a fine list of growth issues. My strategy is to have about 80% in large dividend stocks that grow dividends, and about 20% in faster growers. My theory is one only needs one or two fast growers to signficantly improve capital growth, while getting income and some growth from the others - for me, the others are mostly banks and utilities. (I used to shun banks and utilities.)

Currently my hopes for a fast grower amidst the stalwarts is GSY.T. It reports on, I believe, Nov 12, and expectations are high. It is also consolodating recently after a significant runup in price.
P/e around 16, but recent growth has been 30% so p/e could expand.
 

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Wow, this is a fine list of growth issues. My strategy is to have about 80% in large dividend stocks that grow dividends, and about 20% in faster growers. My theory is one only needs one or two fast growers to signficantly improve capital growth, while getting income and some growth from the others - for me, the others are mostly banks and utilities. (I used to shun banks and utilities.)

Currently my hopes for a fast grower amidst the stalwarts is GSY.T. It reports on, I believe, Nov 12, and expectations are high. It is also consolodating recently after a significant runup in price.
P/e around 16, but recent growth has been 30% so p/e could expand.
You have to be lucky to find fast growing smaller cap stocks. Especially ones that would beat the growth of those dividend paying stalwarts I listed above.Just read a bit about GSY. Rents out furniture, offers personal loans, etc:

goeasy Ltd. is a leading full-service provider of goods and alternative financial services that provides everyday Canadians with a chance for a better tomorrow, today. goeasy Ltd. serves its customers through two key operating divisions, easyfinancial and easyhome. easyfinancial is a non-prime consumer lender that bridges the gap between traditional financial institutions and costly payday lenders.
No idea if it will do well, but not something I would buy. By the way, I see it has taken a 12% drop today so far and is still dropping!
 

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Discussion Starter #31
^
Yes it is not for everyone. Just reported revenue up 26%, EPS up 24%. Volatility is to be expected. has a high beta. To me not a big deal as it offers buying opportunites. Unconfirmed reports are that there is a CEO change, so that might have made some investor nervous.

In the meantime I was looking into MX as a possible buy. Its debt/equity is reported to be in the range of 100 to 113. So I'm looking deeper into that. Retrun on equity is a nice 20%. Debt/equity is a concern.
 

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GSY is a very strong growth company. It may have gotten slightly ahead of itself. It is now trading at a trailing P/E of 10, and a forward P/E of around 8, which is low but interestingly not that far off comparables, plenty of small companies trading at very low valuations. A really good company and if it falls another 10-20% without a drop in outlook then a very strong buy.
 

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Discussion Starter #33
BAM-A is another one that keeps growing and growing. Like to get it at bear market prices, however.
 

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Discussion Starter #35 (Edited)
^And I bet you are happy.

Another CDN growth name that came to mind is CAE. I always coveted this one, but when I was looking to buy it was "too expensive". Always seems to be too expensive. that seems to suggest it is a great company.
 

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Discussion Starter #36
another one came to my attention. Open Text.
 

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Discussion Starter #37
One of these days I'm going to make a fictional portfolio out of these and see how it does going forward. Call it the "CMF off the top of our heads growth fund".

dividend stocks get a lot of air play here, so I think its time to pay some attention to the growth names.
 

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One of these days I'm going to make a fictional portfolio out of these and see how it does going forward. Call it the "CMF off the top of our heads growth fund".

dividend stocks get a lot of air play here, so I think its time to pay some attention to the growth names.
That could be a fun exercise. Growth stocks in Canada have had some excellent returns. And some mutual funds that specialize in it (such as BG Small Caps) have done very well.

Suggestions I have, from experience: make sure you have good sector diversification in the portfolio, because it's easy to end up very heavy in one sector (e.g. tech). Also make sure you evaluate the volatility of the stock picks and don't load up too heavily on the most volatile ones, such as pharma or pot. Finally, growth stocks require more active management... you must constantly re-evaluate the portfolio and weed out the duds, find new promising ones.

This is why a portfolio of mature, dividend payers is probably easier to manage long term. They are already well established, so you can hold them more passively. But I think small cap / growth stock investment requires more active management.
 

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That could be a fun exercise. Growth stocks in Canada have had some excellent returns. And some mutual funds that specialize in it (such as BG Small Caps) have done very well.

Suggestions I have, from experience: make sure you have good sector diversification in the portfolio, because it's easy to end up very heavy in one sector (e.g. tech). Also make sure you evaluate the volatility of the stock picks and don't load up too heavily on the most volatile ones, such as pharma or pot. Finally, growth stocks require more active management... you must constantly re-evaluate the portfolio and weed out the duds, find new promising ones.

This is why a portfolio of mature, dividend payers is probably easier to manage long term. They are already well established, so you can hold them more passively. But I think small cap / growth stock investment requires more active management.
Good post James. I agree with what you said. I had immediately thought of your LowDiv TSX Portfolio experiment in this regard. I know you might not consider it a perfect candidate for a Growth Portfolio, but any time you get low dividends and small caps, I think "growth".

Pluto should read through that thread and see what transpired.

ltr
 

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Good post James. I agree with what you said. I had immediately thought of your LowDiv TSX Portfolio experiment in this regard. I know you might not consider it a perfect candidate for a Growth Portfolio, but any time you get low dividends and small caps, I think "growth".

Pluto should read through that thread and see what transpired.
Thanks ltr. You're right, my Lowdiv stocks are mostly growth stocks. In that thread you can also see a link to my older thread (my first attempt at this technique) to see what mistakes I made. I'm still sticking with the method and will increase its size a bit in the December rebalance.
 
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