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Well, I don't think I'm buying the wrong companies, I'm worried of playing this roller-coaster situation the right way.
Precisely because it's a roller coaster ride, I think the only reasonable thing to do is to buy the securities you like whenever you have the money.

I think it's a losing battle to try waiting for perfect entry points. Instead I would put the effort into your securities selection and portfolio construction, and then either buy immediately, OR pre set your entry points (fixed schedule) and blindly buy on a schedule.

I can't see how trying to time your entries is worth the effort. For example, a few minutes ago, the Federal Reserve announced they will now be manipulating the corporate bond market in a new way. BMO jumped on the news. How can you possibly predict such a thing?
 

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Precisely because it's a roller coaster ride, I think the only reasonable thing to do is to buy the securities you like whenever you have the money.

I think it's a losing battle to try waiting for perfect entry points. Instead I would put the effort into your securities selection and portfolio construction, and then either buy immediately, OR pre set your entry points (fixed schedule) and blindly buy on a schedule.

I can't see how trying to time your entries is worth the effort. For example, a few minutes ago, the Federal Reserve announced they will now be manipulating the corporate bond market in a new way. BMO jumped on the news. How can you possibly predict such a thing?
I agree but it's not all black or white. "Buying whenever you have money" vs "Trying to time the market to buy" is black or white, there's a balance. Say you wanted to buy REITs or Energy or maybe financials institutions, let's take XRE, XEG and XFN for example, to avoid pointing a specific stock picking.

XRE suddenly went +12% in less than a week.
XEG suddenly went +23% in about a week.
XFN suddenly went +11% in a week.
No obvious reasons for that. They were all moving slowly and then spiked. It's not as if we announced that we were deploying the COVID vaccine.

Considering the current situation, not sure I would trust that and buy after a sudden spike in price. There was always a correction in the past 3 months for those examples. It's not about technical analysis vs fundamental analysis, I simply use fundamental analysis to select my stocks and a little bit of pattern analysis to make sure I'm not buying an instant loss. When there are no suspicious and obvious spikes like the ones we saw the first week of June, then I would buy whenever I have the money.
 

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Considering the current situation, not sure I would trust that and buy after a sudden spike in price.
You might do a better job at anticipating market ups & downs than me, but I know that I've had a terrible track record (over 20 years) trying to figure out timing, and trying to get 'good entry points'.
 

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You might do a better job at anticipating market ups & downs than me, but I know that I've had a terrible track record (over 20 years) trying to figure out timing, and trying to get 'good entry points'.
I don't have that amount of experience in the market so I'm pretty sure my current opinion is biased even though I've made lots of trades recently trying to figure out strategies, patterns and cognitive biases.

I'm measuring the performance of such gut-feeling decisions to get rational facts.

It's easy to measure. Let's say you have money and you want to buy a stock. You look at the current price and you note it. Then you decide the goal price within a short time-window based on your gut-feeling. Then you decide the limit price to buy immediately if it goes the opposite direction than your gut-feeling. Then you compare the price you ended-up buying it to the initial price when you wanted to buy it. Build a track record of all those decisions and learn from your gut-feeling.

Maybe it's because I believe in how algorithm trading / quantitative trading can help optimising decisions. Using algorithms and AI to help screening for value and growth stocks from fundamental and technical indicators, then validating that selection using a human which will read about the company and dive deeper in the fundamental analysis, then using algorithms and AI again to optimise the entry point, then holding for long, but with the algorithm / AI helping the human flagging warnings if the stock is suddenly going sideways, but with the human taking the final call, then using again the machine to optimise the exit point. In my opinion, fully human-made decisions are not optimal and fully machine-made decisions are not optimal, but combining both of their strengths will provide better results.
 

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I don't have that amount of experience in the market so I'm pretty sure my current opinion is biased even though I've made lots of trades recently trying to figure out strategies, patterns and cognitive biases.

I'm measuring the performance of such gut-feeling decisions to get rational facts.

It's easy to measure. Let's say you have money and you want to buy a stock. You look at the current price and you note it. Then you decide the goal price within a short time-window based on your gut-feeling. Then you decide the limit price to buy immediately if it goes the opposite direction than your gut-feeling. Then you compare the price you ended-up buying it to the initial price when you wanted to buy it. Build a track record of all those decisions and learn from your gut-feeling.

Maybe it's because I believe in how algorithm trading / quantitative trading can help optimising decisions. Using algorithms and AI to help screening for value and growth stocks from fundamental and technical indicators, then validating that selection using a human which will read about the company and dive deeper in the fundamental analysis, then using algorithms and AI again to optimise the entry point, then holding for long, but with the algorithm / AI helping the human flagging warnings if the stock is suddenly going sideways, but with the human taking the final call, then using again the machine to optimise the exit point. In my opinion, fully human-made decisions are not optimal and fully machine-made decisions are not optimal, but combining both of their strengths will provide better results.
Timing the market works until it doesn't. Believe me I've learned my lesson, you can have the perfect trading chart set up for a massive break that never comes. The problem is - timing the market assumes the market is rational but it's not. You can do everything "perfectly" and not get the result you want. The bottom line is that I think it's better to not worry about entry points and just play the value game.
 

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Timing the market works until it doesn't. Believe me I've learned my lesson, you can have the perfect trading chart set up for a massive break that never comes. The problem is - timing the market assumes the market is rational but it's not. You can do everything "perfectly" and not get the result you want. The bottom line is that I think it's better to not worry about entry points and just play the value game.
I understand your point and I agree.

I'm just trying to find a balance. I'm not going to wait for a whole month before buying because I hoped the price would go down.

But even if we are trying to find value stocks, I'm pretty sure we all do some judgement-call before buying during these times of high volatility.

If you buy in a low-volatility market, then I guess you can just send market orders right away when you have the money. If you buy in a high-volatility market in recession, then I hope you do some judgement-call before buying even if it's a high value stock. I've bought some beaten-down stocks at -80%, then it spiked +150% in a week, then loss -50% the other week. People who bought at the peak were pissed, but did they really think that the recent +150% was sustainable and that we were rocketing to recover pre-COVID levels in a matter of a few weeks (after a -80% loss)? Hopefully not.
 

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People who bought at the peak were pissed, but did they really think that the recent +150% was sustainable and that we were rocketing to recover pre-COVID levels in a matter of a few weeks (after a -80% loss)? Hopefully not.
My most recent RRSP contributions were exactly at the peak of the market (right at the top). Sure, it's unfortunate, but I've also learned over the years that this is a pretty random game -- you win some, you lose some.

I was not "pissed" buying in right at the top, and similarly, I was not bothered by the strong rally back. It's interesting to watch but it's part of that crazy thing the market does. It will keep doing ludicrous things, always. The next move could be a swift 50% crash, or it could be a massive rally to new heights never seen before.

If you start dedicating so much time and thought to each of those points (is this the top? why is it falling? why is it rallying?) I think you'll just drive yourself nuts over time.

The market will always do things like this. Yeah, I bought at a recent peak, but it doesn't really matter.

If these things bother you then I strongly recommend following a more conservative asset allocation -- as I'm doing. When you do that, all the movements get smoothed over, so "lows" and "highs" aren't as extreme.
 

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purchased i shares MSCI (MCHI) today looks like a 4th wave contracting triangle formed in the Hang Seng index that that started in 2000 ended in 2016. The thrust out of the triangle so far has completed the 1st & second waves of a 5 wave structure.

The second wave down formed an ABC wave A = wave C With the B wave forming a contracting triangle. The 3rd wave up is in progress. A move below The C wave of 2 will warn the count is wrong & will exit position.

If correct will look to take 50% off the table when 5 up are complete for wave 3 of 5 & or wave 3 = 1.618 the length of wave 1. Will then put money back on the table after .382 retracement of wave 3 & will close position out when it looks like the 5 waves up are complete. Will exit entire position on .618 retracement of a 3rd wave. Low risk to high reward set up with the triangles forming in wave 4 & the 2 nd wave making for some what high confidence. Since contracting triangles always form in the 4th wave or B wave
 

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purchased i shares MSCI (MCHI) today looks like a 4th wave contracting triangle formed in the Hang Seng index that that started in 2000 ended in 2016. The thrust out of the triangle so far has completed the 1st & second waves of a 5 wave structure.

The second wave down formed an ABC wave A = wave C With the B wave forming a contracting triangle. The 3rd wave up is in progress. A move below The C wave of 2 will warn the count is wrong & will exit position.

If correct will look to take 50% off the table when 5 up are complete for wave 3 of 5 & or wave 3 = 1.618 the length of wave 1. Will then put money back on the table after .382 retracement of wave 3 & will close position out when it looks like the 5 waves up are complete. Will exit entire position on .618 retracement of a 3rd wave. Low risk to high reward set up with the triangles forming in wave 4 & the 2 nd wave making for some what high confidence. Since contracting triangles always form in the 4th wave or B wave
I says pardon....

Most recent buy was First National Financial (FN.TO). Has been on my radar for sometime, finally pulled the trigger. Small position for now.
 

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I bought DOO.TO in mid-April. Only a small position. Doubled my money in no time. Never made money that fast (except on luck). Faster than my big position on KXS.TO. I wish I had a bought a big position on DOO.TO.
 

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In June, I dipped my toe in a bit of energy stocks and I guess I should've bought HED instead (2x Energy Bear ETF, currently at +50% for the month). Instead, I'm currently at -20% for the month... Currently my worst entry point of 2020. And today there's blood on the streets everywhere I look. I only have one small cap clean energy stock at +2% at the moment. Not that I'm worried, most of my investment is for the long run and that portfolio is over +25% for my 2020 investments, but I also invested a bit of money for quick cash that I will hopefully sell at profit in 2-3 months.
 

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Precisely because it's a roller coaster ride, I think the only reasonable thing to do is to buy the securities you like whenever you have the money.

I think it's a losing battle to try waiting for perfect entry points. Instead I would put the effort into your securities selection and portfolio construction, and then either buy immediately, OR pre set your entry points (fixed schedule) and blindly buy on a schedule.

I can't see how trying to time your entries is worth the effort. For example, a few minutes ago, the Federal Reserve announced they will now be manipulating the corporate bond market in a new way. BMO jumped on the news. How can you possibly predict such a thing?
What about value vs price? Value investors have been incorrectly called market timers apparently because they wait and buy aggressivley when better value presents itself. Buying anytime opens the door to over
 
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