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Alright guys, I made this thread to discuss about what's going to happen in the future (near and later).

What do you think about the oil price? Is it gonna go deeper? Back at 100$/barrel? What is it going to happen next?

And what about a next crisis? 2008 is 7 years from us now, is it going to crack again?

My bet : The price of oil will go down when the US reserves will await their limits (soon). Following this, several companies in the sector will collapse, while some other sectors will increase. I think it will affect the overall market for a short period, before quickly rise and exceed records recently established.

And you, on what do you bet?
 

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The 2008 crisis has never left us we are still in it the evidence is everywhere. We have zero interest rates, QE is over but it just was shifted over to Japan and Europe. We have manipulated statistics and markets everywhere to tell us a different story then the one that we should be facing. So the future comes down to can the Fed hold it all together and keep blowing bubbles, keep bond rates down to nothing, keep the fake inflation numbers going, keep faith in the dollar and China, Europe and the world doesn't fall apart along with the huge derivatives mess.
 

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Alright guys, I made this thread to discuss about what's going to happen in the future (near and later).

What do you think about the oil price? Is it gonna go deeper? Back at 100$/barrel? What is it going to happen next?

And what about a next crisis? 2008 is 7 years from us now, is it going to crack again?

My bet : The price of oil will go down when the US reserves will await their limits (soon). Following this, several companies in the sector will collapse, while some other sectors will increase. I think it will affect the overall market for a short period, before quickly rise and exceed records recently established.

And you, on what do you bet?
Noone really knows. Predictions are a fools game. Just like few people predicted the oil crash, and Canada lowering interest rates (actually all of the relevant analysts got this one wrong). World will move on (hopefully) and so will the stock market.
 

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I believe the US reserves reference is to the US storage space, most specifically at Cushing, Oklahoma.

There is currently 61 million barrels of oil stored there and the total capacity is 70 million. Oversupply is continuing to flow in requiring storage space.

Offshore freighters storing oil are at record high levels, filled with speculator oil hoping for a higher price.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/13/us-markets-oil-storage-limit-analysis-idUSKBN0LH0BG20150213

I think the most important factor is that Saudi Arabia has increased their production the equivalent of 50% of US shale production.

The kingdom increased daily crude output by 658,800 barrels in March to an average of 10.294 million, according to data the country communicated to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ secretariat in Vienna. The Bakken formation, among the fastest-growing shale oil regions in the U.S., pumped 1.1 million barrels a day in February, according to data from the North Dakota Industrial Commission.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-16/saudi-arabia-adds-half-a-bakken-to-global-oil-market-in-a-month

I am guessing oil prices will sink again and remain at the $30 - $50 level for awhile, and debt ridden small companies will disappear.

I doubt oil prices will go back over $100 for a long time.

Of course with Iran moving ships into the blockade in Yemen........and maybe facing off against the Saudis............that could change everything.

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/239295-us-officials-concerned-about-iranian-convoy-headed-towards-yemen

With oil..........fundamentals are one thing..........and geopolitics are another.
 

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I read on the internet that some of the big oil producing states in the US that if the wells, & the wells that are started & not finished do not pump for X amount of time they have to shut them down & put everything back to normal. It is cheaper to run them & put more oil on the market. There is some type of fine system set up in the some of the states that some say is going to have the US swimming in oil in the future.
 

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I think you're right that they have to produce or lose the wells but,

If the US was so worried about oil stocks couldn't they
1)Stop importing as much as they are now
2)Become an exporter which I think they currently cannot do under the law but surely that could be changed
 
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