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Discussion Starter #1
Based on the "Dow 1000 or ...." thread, I thought it would be interesting to get some guestimates from people about what they think the TSX could do moving forward.

I have no idea so I'm not even going to make a guess, other than it will be somewhere between 0 and N. ;)
 

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I was in the camp of fall correction. Basically sense early summer the TSX has waffled between 10500-11500 with no real direction.

The markets have no real passion so it's more likely to continue a slow waffle higher with minor 300pt corrections.

Most of our stuff is in real solid position with 25% cash.

A nice correction will bring some passion back.
 

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I'm hoping for a correction spring/summer of 2010.
By correction I mean a fall back to the 7,000 level.
My fear is that it may keep going sideways for most of the year, oscillating between 10,000 and 13,000.
For the decade as a whole, it's hard to predict.
I see CAD being strong vis-a-vis the USD unless central banks of either or both countries take deliberate measures to correct the situation.
Canada can't obviously reduce interest rates any further to weaken the Loonie, but the US govt. needs to start raising interest rates to strengthen the USD.
Strong USD is in everyone's interest right now, including Canada and China.
Come to think of it, Canada needs to raise interest rates aggressively ASAP to control the balloning housing bubble and put an end to the leveraged consumer spending.
Raising interest rates will encourage savings and hopefully control the raging inflation in household essential items.

Looking further ahead, unless we find alternatives to fossil fuels, the resources sector will continue to be strong.
Precious metals I care not about.
Banks will be range bound.
Canadian banks are already amongst the strongest in the world coming out of the financial crisis - I don't see them strengthening significantly.
It's hard to say where the TSX will be in Jan 2020.
I would guess somewhere in the 20,000 to 25,000 pts neighborhood.
 

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If the greatest alternative to fossil fuel was discover today I would be dead before the info structure would be in place.

I will let green and alternative slide for a decade or 2 and bet fossil fuel.

If it gets 9000 or lower I will be buying.
 

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hopefully lower than it is today! i'm having a hard time finding undervalued companies right now trading on the TSX/DJIA/NASDAQ/AMEX
 

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TSX earnings of $720 to $750 in 2010.

Assuming it trades between 10x and 20x, we are looking at a range of 7,200 to 15,000. If it trades in the lower end, I'll be adding to my stock portion. If it trades in the upper end, I'll be adding to my bonds.
 

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The corrections are happening all the time. The only problem is that this time there is about $3 Trillion dollars in cash waiting to be deployed out of these pathetic interest rates. As soon as a stock pulls back a little, this cash swamps in and drives it back up. I wouldn't look for any meaningful pullback in the near future. Selling will be costly ... at least in the short term.

Good luck.
 

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Discussion Starter #9 (Edited)
TSX earnings of $720 to $750 in 2010.

Assuming it trades between 10x and 20x, we are looking at a range of 7,200 to 15,000. If it trades in the lower end, I'll be adding to my stock portion. If it trades in the upper end, I'll be adding to my bonds.
When you say bonds, what type do you think are worth getting these days (short term, long term, gov, corp, real return; actual individual bonds or bond EFTs)?

As is being discussed in another thread I'm interested in knowing peoples opinion on this as I have about 50% bonds in 3 laddered 1 - 5 year ETFs (gov and corp) and am interested in knowing what others are doing when they say they are buying, or thing of buying, bonds, and why. There seems to be a debate if GICs or high interest savigs accounts might be better than fund TFs / funds in the short term.
 

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For the short term (one year) it will continue the up trend although at a slower rate, probably as slow as 15% for this year.
For the long term, it depends. If natural resources continue to be overvalued in the next decade, then TSX will continue to do better than SPX, probably at 15% annually (40000 in 2020). If we return to forward-looking growth, like in the '90s, then TSX will do worse than SPX, probably no more than 20000 in 2020. I'm hoping for the forward-looking growth and a return to the great opportunities of the '90s.
 

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Opstyeagle mentions all the sideline cash and low rates forcing people into more risk keeping stocks up for now.

I agree with this that people are caught between a rock and a hard place and the thought that if you hold cash it will not hold its value is forcing people to increase risk. I think this could hold for awhile until long rates force up short rates from the inability to easily roll over and accumulate more debt in the US, not to mention asset prices rising from the risk money coming in. This will all end very bad for the stock market and we will start our trip back to and below the March lows.
 

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When you say bonds, what type do you think are worth getting these days (short term, long term, gov, corp, real return; actual individual bonds or bond EFTs)?
Sorry. By bonds, I mean the short-term bond index ETF (XSB). I hold bonds to reduce volatility and agree with the contention that long-term bonds do not provide enough rewards for the risk investors are taking in moving up the yield curve.
 
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