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Potential global financial crisis too and maybe even some bank failures. A huge number of people no longer have income and defaults could rise very significantly. On top of that, the corporate debt bubble has burst and we have not yet began to see the fallout from that.

This is all happening so fast, and I think side effects are still coming. The corporate lending market only started freezing up last week so this is a brand new issue.

It's going to hit the banks hard, IMO
I don't think governments will let banks fail. I think they inject all the liquidity necessary and let the chips fall out in inflation/growth in money supply. You can't really blame banks for this situation. Some coco may get triggered to recapitalize if needed.
 

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It is wishful thinking that we are close to bottoming out. The initial panic may pass, but the reality of massive hit to GDP, profits, debts will become apparent. Definitely not yet priced in. Many people are still thinking 'weeks'. We are talking 'months' to a year of heavy economic disruption. The big projects at work with European contractors are probably going to be delayed by 6 months, minimum is my guess.

absolutely. Write the above on stone tablet. Tighten all belts.

i keep thinking of the british during WW II. Everywhere, courage & fortitude. They pulled together. We are to pull together now. Some people have already gotten the memo.
 

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absolutely. Write the above on stone tablet. Tighten all belts.

i keep thinking of the british during WW II. Everywhere, courage & fortitude. They pulled together. We are to pull together now. Some people have already gotten the memo.
^^ I agree. More declines ahead.
I also agree with the spirit of the comment - markets are not a priority now. They are a distant second or third to the bigger challenges of health and safety.

That said tho - most of us will be watching the markets to be informed on how we can provide for ourselves and our families. Not sure if I have this right but this is less likely to be a "V" shaped classic decline and recovery like March 2009. The question that I and likely others are asking is, what is the bottom, and how does one know it's the bottom? I mean, lets say the market drops another 35% on the past 35%. - that takes it to 7,700 next Friday (27th). If another 35% ensues, we are at 5,000 (April 4). I am not trying to be alarmist - what I am curious about in these unpredecented times is what big govt does to support markets, and whether it will work.
 

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Also, we are just one treatment away from getting over this doomsday scenario. Lots of people are working on it and I am hopeful we will hear some good news. I plan to buy in my registered account at 10percent drops from here. Keeping cash in unregistered for possible job loss.
 

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lets say the market drops another 35% on the past 35%. - that takes it to 7,700 next Friday (27th). If another 35% ensues, we are at 5,000 (April 4). I am not trying to be alarmist - what I am curious about in these unpredecented times is what big govt does to support markets, and whether it will work.

they can't really let the stellar CPP fund go to hell in a handbasket since the future of the country depends on it ... although canada will never be able to offset or neutralize US market movements.

i don't know wy but extreme crises somehow cause me to try a joke here or there. Thus here's a piece of yellow humour: do you suppose bar chart curves for north american stock markets will inverse charts for falling COVID 19 cases, whenever that day finally comes
 

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so, if I understand what you are suggesting, the rates of recoveries need to exceed the rates of infection before any hint of improvement in the market.
I read this last week in the G&M. Makes sense.
 

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didn't mean to suggest your contribution was not valuable - I appreciate the mention on CPP and it's role. I had not considered this. Regarding the US of A, they are the elephant in the bed (as PM Trudeau refers) - "Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt."
 

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so, if I understand what you are suggesting, the rates of recoveries need to exceed the rates of infection before any hint of improvement in the market.
I read this last week in the G&M. Makes sense.
This is a good marker, although it will become obvious before that point is reached that new cases have dropped. In China, notionally infections<recoveries on Feb 18, whereas the sustained peak was Feb 4. South Korea only hit this mark clearly on Mar 12, whereas their peak in cases was Mar 4.

New cases are still on a pretty high trajectory. However, European cases are worth watching. They are sort of plateauing. It will become clear this week whether Europe is a runaway mess or maybe has limited the damage. The peak may be in but realistically not more than 7-10 days away.

That would be really good news. Up next would be where the US is going. They may have a while to go to hit peak cases, probably closer to 10-14 days.

When the new cases starts to drop in the developed world, people will start to feel optimistic. Even if its going to be hard economically, at least it won't be getting worse.

Markets are down 30-40%. This is the type of range that is predicting a mess for a year or two. Once we know it will only be a mess for a year or two, markets will stabilize. And future returns look good from then. Don't wait too long to buy in.
 

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I got a buy signal in TQQQ on Friday and took a very small position even though I don't believe the bear is over. I feel obliged to follow the system I have laid out. Last time I failed to take a signal was October and I missed a hell of a run up. I have a tight stop so, not much to lose.
Still holding my TQQQ position. Up about 4 points or 10.54%
 

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I'll just point out that at 20800 on the DOW, we are 2500 points or 14% off the recent bottom - it will take a real move to get back down there. This bottom was also a 38.5% drop from the high just 6 weeks ago. If the Dow/S&P close up on Wednesday, it will be the first time in a month there have been two consecutive up days. And the market will actually be at a 8-9 day high.

I think you can be buying here (which I am), and I think that 18200 low on the Dow will be very difficult to breach. Markets bounced off the -40% barrier pretty hard and are starting to test the -30% barrier now.
 

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I think you can be buying here (which I am), and I think that 18200 low on the Dow will be very difficult to breach. Markets bounced off the -40% barrier pretty hard and are starting to test the -30% barrier now.
Not sure if we're bottomed out yet but I'll continue to nibble into the market as the weeks go on. Still big potentials for both good and bad news plus the markets will likely keep a buffer in for the mostly bad financial reports coming.
 

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Here's a view from technical analysis: the stock index is only NOW painting a death cross pattern and we are still very far below the 200 day moving average.

Generally, there cannot be much assurance that stocks are out of bear territory until they can at least get back above the 200 day moving average.
 

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I would agree a retracement is certainly possible. We were at one point almost 30% below the 200 day moving average - unheard of levels of divergence.

The bounce back was just as powerful - 21% gain in under 48 hours - when has that happened before?

Maybe we find a new range here under bear market status that holds until the situation subsides. Wouldn't be surprised. But this has all the trappings of being contained (not eliminated but at a manageable level like China) within 3-6 months. Markets can EASILY see past 3-6 months.
 
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