[dubmac]

I wonder how TRP will handle this news on Tuesday. I'm curious to see how much of a drop will ensue.
from morningstar jan 6th - a rather optimisitc view

No Keystone XL, No Problem:​

TC Energy Looks Undervalued and Offers an Attractive Yield​

Analyst Note Joe Gemino, CPA, Senior Equity Analyst, 6 Jan 2021​

We are lowering our fair value estimate for narrow-moat TC Energy to $51 (CAD 66) from $52 (CAD 68). With Joe Biden being sworn in as president later this month, we expect him to rescind the Keystone XL’s presidential permit, and it is unlikely that the pipeline will be built. Accordingly, we are removing the project from our forecasts. The modest decrease in our U.S. fair value was a result of a stronger U.S. dollar versus the Canadian dollar. Despite the lower fair value, we still see almost 25% upside in the 4- star stock. In our view, we think that market is overlooking the incremental cash flow from the company’s growth portfolio, even without the Keystone XL. Additionally, the stock is yielding 6.5% with more than enough coverage from its distributable cash flow.​

 

[londoncalling]

Looking back on post 119 is a prime example of my ability to predict the future. This is why I hardly invest on my predictions. Be interesting to see how it shakes out for TC and Premier Kenney

 

[AltaRed]

KXL is not needed if Enbridge Line 3 replacement and TMX get built. We will thank Biden in about 3-5 years.

 

[doctrine]

Given that a) TC energy offloaded most of the risk to Alberta and b) The legal case for 100% of reimbursement is incredibly strong, there is no real long term risk to TC Energy here. Also they are primarily a natural gas pipeline company with power generation assets and just a few oil pipelines. Definitely high on my buy list here. Slight move down today but the real story will be tomorrow when US markets are back open. Will be nice to get some finality so the company and the focus can move on.

 

[Money172375]

Up 5% today.

 

[gardner]

Up 5% today.

Yeah. I was thinking of averaging down but others beat be to it. I expect there will be other opportunities.

The legal case for 100% of reimbursement is incredibly strong, there is no real long term risk to TC Energy here.

It would be interesting to see if the Americans actually paid off on that, though. They seem to be alright with walking away from treaty obligations when they feel like it.

In any event, I feel like the perpetual uncertainty about KXL has been priced in since the week before Obama said "no", and virtually any level of success it might achieve is mainly upside. KXL also serves a lot of the midwestern US oil shale areas and can likely pay its freight on that basis without any US federal approval.

 

[dubmac]

I bought a lil more around 53.7.
here's what Moringstar said about TC Energy (today)

​

Canadian Oil Is Poised to Grow, Even Without the Keystone XL Analyst Note Joe Gemino, CPA, Senior Equity Analyst, 19 Jan 2021​

​

With oil prices on the rise, Canada's crude pipeline egress problem is resurfacing. Oil sands economics have proved to be resilient, and many existing projects can generate free cash flow at oil prices below $40 a barrel West Texas Intermediate, or WTI. Supply will soon be approaching precrisis levels, and Canada's oil industry will need new pipeline infrastructure to bring new crude to market and prevent heavy oil prices from crashing as they did in December 2018. With Joe Biden winning the U.S. presidential election, it is almost assured he will revoke the Keystone XL's presidential permit, shelving the project indefinitely. Fortunately for oil producers, we do not expect the same opposition to Enbridge's Line 3 replacement. Line 3, combined with the Canadian government's Trans Mountain expansion and modular capacity additions on existing pipelines, will create 1.1 million barrels of new pipeline capacity by the end of 2023. Additionally, oil sands producers can take advantage of favorable heavy oil pricing in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Refiners in the region are battling declining imports from Venezuela and Mexico, a trend we expect to continue. With the Keystone XL no longer the answer to the region's problems, prices are attractive enough to incentivize rail transportation as a supplement market option for oil sands producers. Accordingly, we expect Canadian supply to grow 6.3 million barrels of oil per day by 2030, increasing by 1 mmbbl/d over the next decade. We think the market is underestimating the growth prospects and the cash flow potential of the oil sands producers along with the midstream pipeline operators. Accordingly, we see pockets of undervalued stocks, which include wide-moat Enbridge, narrow-moat TC Energy, and Canadian Natural Resources.​

 

[Eder]

I like Morningstar but if they want to comment seriously they should clue in that Alberta oil is not priced in WTI units.

 

[dubmac]

TC wrote off $1 Billion on KXL. did ok last qtr

TC Energy reports solid first quarter operating performance

Continues to advance $20 billion secured capital program following formal suspension of Keystone XL...

www.globenewswire.com

 

[nobleea]

TC officially cancels KXL for good.

 

[dubmac]

Good article in G&M today - but may be behind a paywall.
Basically, TC Energy "..will be just fine" going forward.
It plans to increase the payout by 5 per cent to 7 per cent annually after this year.
it's up 26% YTD. 95% of it's cash flow is pretty much guaranteed.
But...we knew that all along....