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TRP - TC Energy Corporation

18184 Views 150 Replies 21 Participants Last post by  AltaRed, 
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TRP

Does anybody know the reason for the nice pop in Transcanada today?
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I watched an interview earlier today on the post newspaper website with Eric Nuttall that the KXL pipeline is not needed.

Don't worry about Biden — 'Canada's oilpatch doesn't need Keystone XL anymore:' Eric Nuttall
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E
Thats his opinion...I think once we boot Sockboy we need Northern Gateway as well.
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robfordlives said:
So when the inevitable order comes down that KXL is dead, what recourse does TC have? Could they sue??? if yes what kind of damages may they be awarded? Billions down the drain on this foolish bet. I have zero doubt this is done like dinner as n Biden's speech he mentioned Climate change again and Systemic Racism so it is clear he is going HARD LEFT.
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There is no doubt that if TC Energy is building under an approved presidential permit that then gets cancelled, the government will be liable for the damages.

Canada doesn't need KXL, especially with TMX under construction. Line 3 is still very likely as well. It's all built except for one portion through Minnesota which is awaiting permitting and a few outstanding court cases. But I'm not so sure that there is a legal case to cancel TC Energy at all.
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AltaRed
I am on record having said a number of times the Cdn oil industry really does not need KXL if Line 3 replacement and TMX occur. Canada's oil production will barely fill both Line 3 replacement and TMX and it probably cannot find (afford) the capital to increase production enough to ever fill KXL. Even if oil prices could support all that capital investment, it would take at least 5+ years to do it, and by that time, climate change initiative will likely have permanently arrested demand growth. At best, I see KXL running full for a minimum of years, causing all sorts of financial headwinds for the producers that have committed to 20 year shipping contracts.

Even if TC sues with the pulling of the presidential permit, it will take years of litigation and AB will be on the hook with its equity interest and loan guarantee. Yet again, the AB taxpayer will take a thrashing..

There is some opinion out there that with the border crossing installed already (intentionally so before the US election this year), the rest of KXL is simply US interstate commerce regulated by FERC and the presidential permit is no longer relevant, and that a court would reject the concept that the WH can now 'stop' the pipeline. That could be technically true but the road ahead getting all the state and federal permits could face huge headwinds (inability to cross Federal Lands for example). That all said, I don't know enough about it to offer more than an armchair quarterback opinion.
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With the recent run in some pipeline stocks I plead with you all to sell anything pipeline related. This is the insanity to expect going forward. This will actually hurt the poor the most as their utility costs will skyrocket. With all this green power supposedly taking over, electrical utilities should be skyrocketing.........

www.sfchronicle.com

No more natural gas in new San Francisco buildings starting next year

The San Francisco Board of Supervisors voted unanimously Tuesday to ban natural gas in...
www.sfchronicle.com www.sfchronicle.com
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There was talk in Ontario of banning natural gas in new homes by the Wynne government. It got laughed down pretty quickly. How much natural gas does a home in San Francisco burn compared to a home in Minnesota during a full calendar year?
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robfordlives said:
With the recent run in some pipeline stocks I plead with you all to sell anything pipeline related. This is the insanity to expect going forward. This will actually hurt the poor the most as their utility costs will skyrocket. With all this green power supposedly taking over, electrical utilities should be skyrocketing.........

www.sfchronicle.com

No more natural gas in new San Francisco buildings starting next year

The San Francisco Board of Supervisors voted unanimously Tuesday to ban natural gas in...
www.sfchronicle.com www.sfchronicle.com
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Our new-to-us home has a heat pump. I would assume these are very popular and should be, if not already,the primary heat source for anyone in the lower half of the US. If it’s somewhat reasonable for me in Canada, then there’s no need for fossil fuels in residential heating in the lower US.
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The new apt building we moved into 2 years ago has a heat pump in each unit for heating/cooling. Monthly cost is between $50 -$65 depending on season. It has a fan that is designed to run 24/7 for air circulation. No hot water tanks either in the apartments. Lots of hot water but am not sure how the system is setup.
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newfoundlander61 said:
The new apt building we moved into 2 years ago has a heat pump in each unit for heating/cooling. Monthly cost is between $50 -$65 depending on season. It has a fan that is designed to run 24/7 for air circulation. No hot water tanks either in the apartments. Lots of hot water but am not sure how the system is setup.
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We live in Kelowna and maybe 7 years ago we put in a top of the line heat pump to replace the aging one which was there. Our back up heat was an electric furnace which was expensive to operate but more efficient than the heat pump when temperatures got low. Our friends had gas back up and they were told to shut off the heat pump in the winter and rely on gas. We could not do it as our back up was electric and there was no gas to our house. About 2 years ago we decided to bring gas to the house and replaced the electric with gas and electricity bills have dropped by 33%. The heat pump is just used as an air conditioner and works well. The simple answer is to reduce electricity prices and increase the cost of natural gas but I never hear any mention of this.
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frase said:
The simple answer is to reduce electricity prices and increase the cost of natural gas but I never hear any mention of this.
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In Ontario we've been subject to a Federal carbon charge that has been included on our gas bills since 2019. That carbon tax is ramping up very fast. The rates so far are:
2019=3.91 cents/cubic meter,
2020=5.87 cents/cubic meter,
2021=7.83 cents/cubic meter,
2022=9.79 cents/cubic meter.

So you can see where this is going. They want to stop gas from being used in any buildings. I see today that San Francisco has banned gas in new buildings. I certainly would be hesitant today to install a new gas product in my home in anticipation of how much it would cost to operate in the future.

ltr
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AltaRed
NG will almost certainly always be less expensive than electricity, at least in Western Canada, even with hefty carbon taxes. It is simply because cost of electrical generation will go up with all the renewables and NG backup that would be required, along with transmission and distribution system expansion, even if battery storage becomes an order of magnitude cheaper. The new Site C hydro-electric dam on the Peace River will add even more cost to electrical bills.

The NG infrastructure in most of BC is in place without much, if any, additional capital required and gas production sources are local in the northeast portion of the province. I have no doubt the interior of BC will have most heating usage on natural gas for decades to come. The only place I can see electricity becoming more dominant is in the Lower Mainland where new suburbs can be designed for electrical energy from scratch, and both heating and A/C load is moderate.
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dubmac
Why is TRP dropping more than the index?
since Oct 30, oil went from 36 to 48 today. ..so apparently the two are not strongly co-related.
I realize that Biden's plan is to scrap KXL, and there is noise related to that issue.
Also, I think that CEO Gurling is set to officially retire tomorrow, Dec 31.
Not panicking or anything - I'll ride this one a lot lower, but are there any other reasons why TRP's stock price is dropping to these lows?
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Noone wants to show they own this junk on their year end disclosure due to the ESG movement. This has so severely under-perfomed a simple S&P index. There are no positive catalysts at all for this stock going forward. Gurling was a disaster so I suppose that is one "positive"
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I like TRP and may move back into it if there is some sort of selloff with KXL. Just waiting for the decision and seeing what sort of liability it might cause.
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robfordlives said:
Noone wants to show they own this junk on their year end disclosure due to the ESG movement. This has so severely under-perfomed a simple S&P index. There are no positive catalysts at all for this stock going forward. Gurling was a disaster so I suppose that is one "positive"
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Utter nonsense.

ltr
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The price at close 30 Dec was $51.28 getting down their again. Citi energy analyst Timm Schneider has replaced ENB with TRP as his fav canadian stock pick. Mind you I don't follow analyst's for selecting stocks but thought this was something to post in this thread about TRP.
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dubmac
Yes. I see the reference to Schneider in the G&M feed today.
I think this one is under pressure with many on the sidelines waiting to see what Biden will (or can) do about KXL. I'm left wondering when he will announce any plans to cancel KXL - likely in the first 100 days or so of his presidency I suspect. Many suggest that Canada & Cdn Energy biz do not "need" KXL. Others point to the ESG movement as the reason TRP - which may have some influence - but I personally don't see hydrocarbons (gas or oil), or P/L's disappearing soon. (Coal, yes - it will disappear).
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I would agree with Dubmac re: hydrocarbons and even coal will be tough to completely kill if technology develops to make it cost effective and reduce emissions. This technology is being researched and developed but the Trudeau Carbon Tax has put it on hold. I have a bit of a contrarian view on Biden and KXL. Killing jobs during a Covid recovery will not bode well for the President elect who has also put him self forward as labour friendly and infrastructure friendly. Trump had promised a large infrastructure spend that never came to be during his presidency. My suspicion is KXL will continue to sit in purgatory and money or incentives will go to new green initiatives. Moving to greener and cleaner energy is politically appealing in the short term and may even make sense economically in the long term. Like most things people take an either or approach in opinion but rarely in practice.
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No fooling around with the new president:

Biden indicates plans to cancel Keystone XL pipeline permit on first day in office, sources confirm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/biden-keystone-xl-1.5877038
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