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TC is up something like 33% year to date and recently hit an all-time high. The company is doing well selling legacy assets and investing in new projects with higher returns on equity. As a result their payout ratio is very solid and relatively low ~40-42% (many mid-streamers at 60% or more).
 

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TRP has been a rock star. Closed at a new all time high; has been hitting all time highs since May 2019. And to think I got shares back at $54 just in February. Although ACB is about $47. They have a massive array of projects and so can be choosy about where they invest their capital.
 

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TRP never really had Keystone priced into future expectations. They have been growing quite well without it. Natural gas, which is a majority of their pipeline business, is in a stronger place than oil pipelines as well. A nice 17% discount to 52 week high still.
 

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TRP had never substantially priced in KXL, in my opinion. All these court cases prove is that pipe in the ground remains extremely valuable because its harder and harder to get any new ones built. I sold out of TRP at $69-70 in March (10%+ below the high) but I think this is probably becoming a good place to get back in.
 

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TRP's future isn't dependent on KXL. But they are spending money on it, so a cancellation will be another billion or two burned, likely more than Energy East. They have such a wide network now that they have plenty of opportunity for incremental growth. I like it at the $65 level here and a 5% yield with one of the lower payouts from major pipeline companies.
 

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The refinery in Newfoundland is done. It only ever operated because the government waived all past environmental liability. Companies are lining up to see if the government will offer subsidies, but there is no stand alone business model that makes sense. RIP
 

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TRP will weather this storm because the demand for NG is soaring, and there is a bit of a supply crunch shaping up that could last years. EV infrastructure is coming along but you can plot the decline in oil consumption in the developed world and still end up with far more oil demand 10 and 20 years out based on the rest of the world, including/especially India and China.
 

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I sold TRP at $69 back on 28 Feb. It looks good here at $50 with a 6.4% yield, but so does ENB at $35.82 and 9.0% and PPL at $26.78 and 9.4%. Everytime a pipeline fight erupts, it makes the ones in the ground more valuable. But I think I would wait for more of a short term bottom at least, all of them are setting new lows every week here.
 

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So when the inevitable order comes down that KXL is dead, what recourse does TC have? Could they sue??? if yes what kind of damages may they be awarded? Billions down the drain on this foolish bet. I have zero doubt this is done like dinner as n Biden's speech he mentioned Climate change again and Systemic Racism so it is clear he is going HARD LEFT.
There is no doubt that if TC Energy is building under an approved presidential permit that then gets cancelled, the government will be liable for the damages.

Canada doesn't need KXL, especially with TMX under construction. Line 3 is still very likely as well. It's all built except for one portion through Minnesota which is awaiting permitting and a few outstanding court cases. But I'm not so sure that there is a legal case to cancel TC Energy at all.
 

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There was talk in Ontario of banning natural gas in new homes by the Wynne government. It got laughed down pretty quickly. How much natural gas does a home in San Francisco burn compared to a home in Minnesota during a full calendar year?
 

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Given that a) TC energy offloaded most of the risk to Alberta and b) The legal case for 100% of reimbursement is incredibly strong, there is no real long term risk to TC Energy here. Also they are primarily a natural gas pipeline company with power generation assets and just a few oil pipelines. Definitely high on my buy list here. Slight move down today but the real story will be tomorrow when US markets are back open. Will be nice to get some finality so the company and the focus can move on.
 
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