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I always find situations like that fascinating.

It shows how far out of the real picture the regular investor really is.

Insiders move an entire sector and we just get to sit and watch.

ltr
interesting. nice bounces. who knew!
I tried to find the skinny on why - but no success.
IPL, another pipeline, didn't do anything. so I don't know why ENB & TRP would go up, but not IPL.
 

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TRP has been a rock star.
so true.
Investors get an additonal 8-10% annual dividend increase through to 2021 as well.
From Morningstar "Despite the strong outlook for the company's business, we think most of the stock's upside has been realized by the market this year, leaving modest upside in this 3-star name. However, the stock is yielding 4.6% at current levels, and we expect TC Energy to increase its dividend 8%-10% annually over the next five years" TRP also has some nice growth projects happening "TC Energy also announced its newest growth project, the West Path Delivery Program. The new project is a CAD 1.2 billion expansion of its NGTL and Foothills gas pipelines and will connect with the GTN Xpress Project."
I recall reading that this is the first year that the US exported oil/gas.
2020 will be an interesting ride.
 

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@doctrine. Interesting article in the G&M today that sounds very much in line with your perspective. Warren Buffett likes pipelines. Maybe you should too

“A lot of these midstream stocks in the U.S. and Canada have really gotten hit – not as much as E&P [exploration and production], but really hit. And this is Warren saying that the businesses are still sound and it is getting harder and harder to build pipelines and transmission assets,” Laura Lau, the chief investment officer at Toronto-based Brompton Funds, said in an interview.​
“I think pipe in the ground is worth more than before because it is so much harder to build,” Ms. Lau added.​

“On the other hand, the transaction offers validation that there are large investors with an interest in high-quality pipeline assets. We expect there will continue to be strategic transactions in the pipeline sector, given the limited ability to grow by developing new infrastructure,” Hinds Howard, infrastructure portfolio manager for CBRE Clarion Securities, said in an e-mail, adding that Canadian pipeline operators will be among the acquirers.​
Mr. Buffett may have set in motion a round of dealmaking that will support the whole pipeline sector – and reward investors.​
I saw an article by a Goldman-Sachs analyst that he expects oil to rally to 66 in 2021.
 

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Biden stated (a while ago) he would get rid of KXL. Not sure if he'll succeed or not, but regardless, with the current situation, and a Biden win, I think KXL will get axed. TRP's market cap is 42.5 Billion. The cost for the project is 1.5 Billion (see here). ...and would therefore be about a 1.5 Billion hit to market cap ... but the bigger unknown, IMO, is the impact on contracts etc that have been included in the KXL plan. Morningstar analysts suggest KXL will get done in late 2023 along with ENB's Line 3. Difficult to separate noise from news from information in all this.
 

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ouch.

Quick calculation on the back of a napkin. 6/42 = 0.15.
Likely a 15-20% drop on that news? ..would put the market price (post write-down) at around 50, but as you mention, the contingency payments have not been added in.
Of course - they could stock pile the pipe and use it in other projects...mexico etc. who knows if that could help offset some of the impact
 

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Long term, I'm still optimistic on TRP. They did well on the Columbia P/L purchase.
There will likely be some bumps in the near term, but overall, this is a long term hold - kinda like RY and BCE and other banks.
 

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TRP shares are at a 15 yr low in valuation.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Robert Kwan:
“With the upcoming November 3 election, a Trump re-election should give the company a four-year window to complete the financially attractive Keystone XL project (6 times EBITDA cash on-cash build multiple),” he said. “However, if Biden becomes president, we see multiple avenues for upside, including: (1) potential for increased natural gas demand to firm up accelerated renewable power deployment and also drive meaningful GHG emissions reductions from coal-to-gas switching; (2) removing the distraction of KXL; and (3) with KXL out of the picture, we see the potential for an attractive move to monetize the Liquids Pipelines assets, which would have numerous benefits.”
Not sure if any of this crystal-ball gazing will materialize, but with TRP shares approaching 50, it is looking attractive.
 

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Interestingly - if the big players like Volvo/VW and others are making changes on that scale, it looks like the next 5 years will see some real change in auto sales... but it begs the question "which companies/businesses stand to benefit most from this huge transition to EV?" Would it be Hydro companies (highly regulated)? Would it be companies that develop/replace electric car batteries (sounds like these companies are/would be foreign - but I don't know, I think China has the battery market pretty locked up)?
Are companies like TRP/ENB positioning themselves to respond to the change? Some crystal-ball gazers suggest that companies like TRP stand to benefit because their natural gas business stands to benefit as Power companies use natural gas to help augment power from renewable sources etc. Not sure who knows these answers, but I'd be interested to learn who follows this kind of stuff.
 

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Why is TRP dropping more than the index?
since Oct 30, oil went from 36 to 48 today. ..so apparently the two are not strongly co-related.
I realize that Biden's plan is to scrap KXL, and there is noise related to that issue.
Also, I think that CEO Gurling is set to officially retire tomorrow, Dec 31.
Not panicking or anything - I'll ride this one a lot lower, but are there any other reasons why TRP's stock price is dropping to these lows?
 

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Yes. I see the reference to Schneider in the G&M feed today.
I think this one is under pressure with many on the sidelines waiting to see what Biden will (or can) do about KXL. I'm left wondering when he will announce any plans to cancel KXL - likely in the first 100 days or so of his presidency I suspect. Many suggest that Canada & Cdn Energy biz do not "need" KXL. Others point to the ESG movement as the reason TRP - which may have some influence - but I personally don't see hydrocarbons (gas or oil), or P/L's disappearing soon. (Coal, yes - it will disappear).
 

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I wonder how TRP will handle this news on Tuesday. I'm curious to see how much of a drop will ensue.
from morningstar jan 6th - a rather optimisitc view

No Keystone XL, No Problem:​
TC Energy Looks Undervalued and Offers an Attractive Yield​
Analyst Note Joe Gemino, CPA, Senior Equity Analyst, 6 Jan 2021​
We are lowering our fair value estimate for narrow-moat TC Energy to $51 (CAD 66) from $52 (CAD 68). With Joe Biden being sworn in as president later this month, we expect him to rescind the Keystone XL’s presidential permit, and it is unlikely that the pipeline will be built. Accordingly, we are removing the project from our forecasts. The modest decrease in our U.S. fair value was a result of a stronger U.S. dollar versus the Canadian dollar. Despite the lower fair value, we still see almost 25% upside in the 4- star stock. In our view, we think that market is overlooking the incremental cash flow from the company’s growth portfolio, even without the Keystone XL. Additionally, the stock is yielding 6.5% with more than enough coverage from its distributable cash flow.​
 

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I bought a lil more around 53.7.
here's what Moringstar said about TC Energy (today)
Canadian Oil Is Poised to Grow, Even Without the Keystone XL Analyst Note Joe Gemino, CPA, Senior Equity Analyst, 19 Jan 2021​
With oil prices on the rise, Canada's crude pipeline egress problem is resurfacing. Oil sands economics have proved to be resilient, and many existing projects can generate free cash flow at oil prices below $40 a barrel West Texas Intermediate, or WTI. Supply will soon be approaching precrisis levels, and Canada's oil industry will need new pipeline infrastructure to bring new crude to market and prevent heavy oil prices from crashing as they did in December 2018. With Joe Biden winning the U.S. presidential election, it is almost assured he will revoke the Keystone XL's presidential permit, shelving the project indefinitely. Fortunately for oil producers, we do not expect the same opposition to Enbridge's Line 3 replacement. Line 3, combined with the Canadian government's Trans Mountain expansion and modular capacity additions on existing pipelines, will create 1.1 million barrels of new pipeline capacity by the end of 2023. Additionally, oil sands producers can take advantage of favorable heavy oil pricing in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Refiners in the region are battling declining imports from Venezuela and Mexico, a trend we expect to continue. With the Keystone XL no longer the answer to the region's problems, prices are attractive enough to incentivize rail transportation as a supplement market option for oil sands producers. Accordingly, we expect Canadian supply to grow 6.3 million barrels of oil per day by 2030, increasing by 1 mmbbl/d over the next decade. We think the market is underestimating the growth prospects and the cash flow potential of the oil sands producers along with the midstream pipeline operators. Accordingly, we see pockets of undervalued stocks, which include wide-moat Enbridge, narrow-moat TC Energy, and Canadian Natural Resources.​
 

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Good article in G&M today - but may be behind a paywall.
Basically, TC Energy "..will be just fine" going forward.
It plans to increase the payout by 5 per cent to 7 per cent annually after this year.
it's up 26% YTD. 95% of it's cash flow is pretty much guaranteed.
But...we knew that all along....
 
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