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Only the Montana hurdle left.... absent civil disobedience aka DAPP style which may well manifest itself. TRP better start laying pipe Spring of 2020 and get spreads done in both Montana and Nebraska to be sure.
 

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Another vote with their feet move.
It does reduce major pipeline exposure but not so sure this is a 'vote with their feet' move. From https://www.tcenergy.com/siteassets/pdfs/investors/events/2019/tc-2019-investor-day-presentation.pdf there seems to be a broad range of opportunities in both US and Canada. Despite the USA has 10 times the population and GDP of Canada, project opportunities do not seem to be skewed 90/10.

As a shareholder, I want TC Energy to focus on the most profitable and rewarding opportunities, and I still get the benefit of the DTC from a Canadian multi-national.
 

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My take is investors have discounted much value to Keystone XL given its soap opera history. It also helps that the AB gov't has made an equity investment and a loan guarantee. TRP shareholders are not nearly as exposed from a 'sunk cost' perspective than when they were solely at risk. Indeed, I would not be surprised if TRP had told the AB gov't that they (and thus shareholders) could no longer bear sole risk in this project and sought something like Ottawa's rescue of TMX as a means to continue. Especially important given a Dem victory in Nov would risk any further investments made in 2020. Hardly tenable to the TRP shareholder.

This could wipe out any material Montana based construction in 2020.
 

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TRP and Jason Kenney will (should) re-think why they are (will be) spending money this year on construction of the AB segment of Keystone XL, and I think the border crossing segment too. I strongly suspect that had AB not decided to put taxpayer money into the game earlier this year that TRP would have stopped spending shareholder money that will otherwise have to be written off if the project dies.

I would not be surprised if in the next few days (or week) that both TRP and AB will freeze further construction work pending the outcome of the US election. If Biden wins, I think this project is dead and TRP will take a writeoff of sunk costs by mid-2021. A $20 drop in stock price over 5 months is pretty significant notwithstanding some of that is the covid effect. IMO, all the bad news is now priced in.
 

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I think TC's stock price will take a bit of a hit with a Biden win, simply because it will become a 'finality' that KXL won't be completed. I agree with others that KXL completion is not baked into today's price but there will still be a pyschological effect that will weigh on the stock price near term. For those looking for an entry point, I think it is worth a better than 50-50 chance of a temporarily lower price post-election.
 

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$6B is the estimated completed cost....not the sunk cost. There may be $1-2B of sunk costs, some of it to be clawed back through contingency payments and some of it on the AB taxpayer's back based on its equity share (whatever that is).
 
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