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The spread to Iran is concerning, according to scientists. The virus appears to be finding ways out despite all the quarantines.

My question is how does a microscopic virus with no brain figure out how to spread, mutate and make it difficult to cure ?

Answer to my own question.......

“Viruses are very intelligent. They can think. They do things that we do not expect. They adapt to the environment. They change themselves in order to survive,” said Lai, professor of molecular microbiology and immunology and a Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator.

That’s part of what got Lai interested in studying the coronavirus, which is made up of 31,000 nucleotides and has the longest known viral RNA genome. “Conventional wisdom would say that having such a large RNA genome wouldn’t work, that the virus would become defective. But coronavirus seems to have broken all the rules,” he said.

Lai’s studies of coronavirus have revealed the details of how the virus enters target cells and how it turns on RNA synthesis in the host cell. Coronaviruses cause respiratory illnesses in humans and animals and may cause neurological symptoms similar to those of multiple sclerosis.


https://news.usc.edu/9791/researcher-teases-out-secrets-from-surprisingly-intelligent-viruses/
 

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Discussion Starter #82
An Iranian man who had been in China, brought it back to Iran. He has since died. Iran had stopped all direct flights from China but this man returned using an 'indirect' route to get around that.

This is what people do, they think only of themselves and what will inconvenience them. Every person who is travelling right now is putting other people at risk. It is travellers who are spreading the virus, it isn't spreading by itself.

If I visit Switzerland on a hiking vacation, the hotel where I stay probably has people there from a dozen countries who I will come into contact with. Any one of them could infect all the others who then travel on elsewhere or return home. That's what happened in France with the guy who brought the virus in to a resort and infected 11 other people.

People who have been in close contact are even being allowed to travel. Japan has just admitted that 23 passengers from the Diamond Princess who had been tested BEFORE the ship quarantine began but not tested again before they disembarked. Three have since tested negative, MOST have AGREED to be tested again and all have been ASKED to self-quarantine at home. That's most, not all have agreed and that's asked not made to self-quarantine.

If someone is quite willing to take an indirect route to get to where they want to go like the guy from Iran, what would make anyone think that 'asking' people to self-quarantine will not be ignored just as easily and probably? People put themselves first and disregard the risk to bring to others.

Everyone travelling right now is putting other people at risk however small that risk might be. It is in fact saying, 'you don't matter to me, I'm doing what I want to do.'

WHO rates the risk globally as High. They are saying the window of opportunity to contain this is narrowing. The risk of a pandemic is increasing. But it is not WHO that can tell people not to travel, that is up to governments. But they are ALWAYS playing 'catch up' because they look at the political and economic consequences of putting out a 'avoid unnecessary travel' advisory or an outright, 'do not travel' advisory.

People who don't self-impose a 'I'm not gonna travel till WHO says this is contained' policy, use government travel advisories as an excuse to do what they want to do without regard to the risk to other people they are contributing to increasing.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/korean-covid-19-cases-double-iran-linked-infections-climb

It's becoming more and more likely each day that it is going to get away from containment. If that happens, people who keep saying, 'oh the 'normal' flu kills more every year' are going to find out why comparing a .1% mortality rate to a 2% mortality rate without also looking at the infection rate is stupidity. If this virus gets loose and has the same infection rate as the 'normal' flu, it will kill 20 TIMES as many people.
 

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People are infected in Italy and other countries who had no connection to China. They don't know how they were infected.

Scientists are also saying the incubation period appears to be longer than 14 days. They aren't sure how long it is but some people are infected without symptoms.

The head of the US infectious diseases is warning of being on the cusp of a pandemic. It seems the experts believe it is only a matter of time.

Personally, I think anyone who travels outside of North America should be subject to mandatory quarantine for 30 days.

They have the right to take the chance, but not the right to infect others. We have to stop the virus before it comes in.
 

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It's too late sags. Any kind of reporting has a time lag; Canadians have already been exposed to the virus and there are likely more cases than we know. Hopefully not too much more.

CBC is running a story right now, that one passenger on a Montreal - Vancouver flight last week tested positive for COVID-19
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/air-canada-passenger-travelling-from-montreal-to-vancouver-on-valentine-s-day-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-1.5473283

So that's 100 or 200 other domestic passengers that were exposed. Hopefully nobody caught it.
 

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Discussion Starter #85
Italy has been unable so far to identify 'patient zero'. Starting with 16 confirmed cases in Lombardy on 21 February, an additional 60 cases on 22 February, and Italy's first deaths reported on the same days. As of 24 February 2020, there have been 229 confirmed coronavirus cases and 7 deaths in Italy. Italy currently has the third highest infection count per country in the world.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-austria-considers-border-controls-over-coronavirus-outbreak-11941438

Meanwhile, if you check the Government of Canada travel advisory page what do you find? Does it suggest 'avoid all non-essential travel' to northern Italy, Milan, Venice, etc.? Nope, it suggests you 'exercise normal security precautions'. https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/advisories The government advisories are a joke.

Does anyone here think this is a good time to visit Milan or Venice? The last 2 days of Carnival in Venice have been cancelled now. How many Canadians might be there and will now fly home? How many have a flight to Milan booked in the next couple of weeks and will choose to take those flights?

The scary thing about the outbreak in Italy is the rate of contagion. So far, that has remained an unknown. They know how it spreads but have not yet got a handle on how contagious it is. The numbers in Italy over just a few days seems to indicate a high rate of contagion.
 

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Meanwhile, if you check the Government of Canada travel advisory page what do you find? Does it suggest 'avoid all non-essential travel' to northern Italy, Milan, Venice, etc.? Nope, it suggests you 'exercise normal security precautions'. https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/advisories The government advisories are a joke.
Two points to consider,
- There is lag time updating the travel advisories
- They are not written for alarmists :)
 

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Discussion Starter #87
Two points to consider,
- There is lag time updating the travel advisories
- They are not written for alarmists :)
Give the 'alarmist' a rest cainvest. Would you want to travel to Milan or Venice TODAY? Yes or no? Would you advise someone else to do so?

You seem to think everyone has to be classed either as an optimist or a pessimist. There is also a realist. Not only would it be stupid to travel to Milan today, it would also be irresponsible in that IF you caught the virus, you would bring it back with you and put everyone else at risk around you. There might then be an outbreak of 200+ in your town because just like in Italy, ONE person brought it in. But you don't CARE if that might happen, is that what you want me to believe?
 

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I'm not the one concerned it'll show up in my local supermarket or even getting it travelling to very low or non-infected areas.

I also know how to read the "last updated" date on Canadian travel advisories, like ...
Italy Exercise normal security precautions 2020-02-19 14:02:38
And, of course, that's not the only source one can use to determine if to travel or not.
 

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An infected person showed up at the Toronto airport.

A woman flew to Wuhan, China in January and returned on a flight on Friday. She was infected with the virus, but no matter.......she is 20 years old and doing fine.

But, she was on a plane load of passengers, some of whom are much older than 20 and won't do as well if they are infected. She was also in contact with the airline crew (who were in contact with other passengers), and of course people in the airport, including border agents who are in contact with many people. Not to worry though......probably nobody else was infected......maybe. The local health authorities have some tracking down to do before all the people she was in contact with are in contact with others.

I thought there was a quarantine in Wuhan. How did the woman get out of China ? What where her airline connections ?

Canada seems intent on playing a game of chicken with the virus. I don't think the public is being told the whole story either.

Edit.....just look at all those flights. I doubt the virus will be contained for much longer.

https://flightaware.com/live/
 

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Discussion Starter #90
I'm not the one concerned it'll show up in my local supermarket or even getting it travelling to very low or non-infected areas.

I also know how to read the "last updated" date on Canadian travel advisories, like ...
Italy Exercise normal security precautions 2020-02-19 14:02:38
And, of course, that's not the only source one can use to determine if to travel or not.
Yes keep reading the government travel advisories cainvest, never mind that you will always be behind the curve doing so. The government travel advisories still haven't told you to avoid travel to northern Italy. Their count is 220 today.

Go ahead and travel to 'very low or non-infected areas' cainvest. Just as the people in a Tenerife hotel did. Now there are around 1000 of them quarantined in a hotel enjoying what one Brit calls her 'vacation from hell'.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-tourists-at-tenerife-hotel-tested-for-coronavirus-as-case-confirmed-in-adeje-11942764
That was a non-infected area the day before yesterday cainvest but there are no 'very low' risk areas. The risk is High Globally.

Since SARS in 2003, air travel has increased TENFOLD cainvest. Containing this virus without acknowledging that fact and telling people to avoid travel has little chance of happening. The virus has now been found in 36 countries. It was only around 25 countries a week or so ago. Does that sound like it is being contained to you?

Canada's public health advice now for ALL returning Canadians who have travelled internationally is to 'monitor yourself on your return for 2 weeks'. That will do a lot of good if someone brings it home and takes it to the office on Monday morning. The more people who travel, the more risk that exists EVERYWHERE. But no government is going to say, 'stop travelling'.
 

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Discussion Starter #91
An infected person showed up at the Toronto airport.

A woman flew to Wuhan, China in January and returned on a flight on Friday. She was infected with the virus, but no matter.......she is 20 years old and doing fine.

But, she was on a plane load of passengers, some of whom are much older than 20 and won't do as well if they are infected. She was also in contact with the airline crew (who were in contact with other passengers), and of course people in the airport, including border agents who are in contact with many people. Not to worry though......probably nobody else was infected......maybe. The local health authorities have some tracking down to do before all the people she was in contact with are in contact with others.

I thought there was a quarantine in Wuhan. How did the woman get out of China ? What where her airline connections ?

Canada seems intent on playing a game of chicken with the virus. I don't think the public is being told the whole story either.

Edit.....just look at all those flights. I doubt the virus will be contained for much longer.

https://flightaware.com/live/


She had been away for a while sags and visited multiple places. She didn't return to Canada directly from China. It is not impossible for someone to leave China and end up anywhere. It is only some direct flights that can't be made.

In this case, the young woman did act responsibly and declared herself on arrival in Toronto.
https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/02/23/new-presumptive-case-of-coronavirus-diagnosed-in-toronto/

What gets me is she was just told to phone public health and when she did, they just told her to go to the hospital Emergency Department, thus exposing even more people. She is now 'self-quarantined'.

What it does show is how easily someone could turn up tomorrow and spread the virus. You can't stop that possibility as long as people continue to travel.
 

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Yes keep reading the government travel advisories cainvest, never mind that you will always be behind the curve doing so. The government travel advisories still haven't told you to avoid travel to northern Italy. Their count is 220 today.

I'm not the one concerned it'll show up in my local supermarket or even getting it travelling to very low or non-infected areas.

I also know how to read the "last updated" date on Canadian travel advisories, like ...
Italy Exercise normal security precautions 2020-02-19 14:02:38
And, of course, that's not the only source one can use to determine if to travel or not.
Can you only read text in Bold? Maybe this will help. :)

Go ahead and travel to 'very low or non-infected areas' cainvest. Just as the people in a Tenerife hotel did. Now there are around 1000 of them quarantined in a hotel enjoying what one Brit calls her 'vacation from hell'.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-tourists-at-tenerife-hotel-tested-for-coronavirus-as-case-confirmed-in-adeje-11942764
That was a non-infected area the day before yesterday cainvest but there are no 'very low' risk areas. The risk is High Globally.

Since SARS in 2003, air travel has increased TENFOLD cainvest. Containing this virus without acknowledging that fact and telling people to avoid travel has little chance of happening. The virus has now been found in 36 countries. It was only around 25 countries a week or so ago. Does that sound like it is being contained to you?

Canada's public health advice now for ALL returning Canadians who have travelled internationally is to 'monitor yourself on your return for 2 weeks'. That will do a lot of good if someone brings it home and takes it to the office on Monday morning. The more people who travel, the more risk that exists EVERYWHERE. But no government is going to say, 'stop travelling'.
There are always risks with travelling, some areas should no doubt be avoided. Many thousands are enjoying their winter vacations and returning safe and sound. Some will no doubt choose to stay home and that's fine.

Of course you want to label all that travel right now as irresponsible with the fact they may come back to Canada and infect you. Maybe make a sign "How dare you!" and walk (in hazmat gear) outside your closest airport's international terminal to get your view point out?
 

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Discussion Starter #93
Cainvest, if you want to stick your head in the sand that's your choice. Italy went from 220 yesterday to 320 today. Four more countries have just announced their first cases. It si not being contained. At this point, I believe the cat is out of the bag and people like you as well as those responsible for our safety and keeping us informed, are not doing a good enough job.

We need more transparency and I'm going to start a new thread on that subject.
 

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How will airlines and resorts deal with border closings and/or requests to cancel? Will travel insurance kick in (if purchased) or will the airlines and hotels do the right thing?

What would happen if a travel advisory was instituted to a country after you’ve made the purchase? And does travel insurance allow you to cancel for any reason? How will they view worried travellers who decide to stay home?
 

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My inlaws have a south american cruise booked next month I think.
They actually missed their flight down to Buenos Aires due to one of them having bad case of stomach flu. So they missed the cruise. Luckily this was the only time they ever sprung for the cancellation insurance. With a local doctors note, looks like they'll be able to collect on it.
 

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Discussion Starter #96
How will airlines and resorts deal with border closings and/or requests to cancel? Will travel insurance kick in (if purchased) or will the airlines and hotels do the right thing?

What would happen if a travel advisory was instituted to a country after you’ve made the purchase? And does travel insurance allow you to cancel for any reason? How will they view worried travellers who decide to stay home?
The answers to those questions will vary depending on the details of your reservations and insurance Money172375. If or example someone has booked a 'no-cancellation, no refund' basic airline ticket and have no travel insurance and no actual 'do not travel' advisory for a given country has been declared (say Italy at present and you had a flight booked to Milan in the affected area right now) tough luck.

There are too many variables to try and give general answers that make any sense. What does make sense is to not make any travel plans right now for this year. Then you will not have to concern yourself with any of the questions you are asking about.
 

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The answers to those questions will vary depending on the details of your reservations and insurance Money172375. If or example someone has booked a 'no-cancellation, no refund' basic airline ticket and have no travel insurance and no actual 'do not travel' advisory for a given country has been declared (say Italy at present and you had a flight booked to Milan in the affected area right now) tough luck.

There are too many variables to try and give general answers that make any sense. What does make sense is to not make any travel plans right now for this year. Then you will not have to concern yourself with any of the questions you are asking about.
Thanks. We’re already booked for 2 getaways in the next 3 months. March break to Florida and a week in the Caribbean in May.
 

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Discussion Starter #98
Thanks. We’re already booked for 2 getaways in the next 3 months. March break to Florida and a week in the Caribbean in May.
Personally, I would no longer be planning to take those trips. While the PROBABILITY may be low the consequences can be HIGH. For example, consider the hotel in Tenerife where all the guests are now quarantined. No one there went on their vacation thinking, 'oh, we might run into Covid-19, but they did.
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-guests-in-a-hotel-in-tenerife-being-quarantined-due-to-cases-of-covid-19/

This is not unlike the Diamond Princess cruise ship where the virus spread throughout the passengers. A large number of people confined in a small space. And it isn't just the possibility of getting the virus, it is the other affects as well. Those returning to Canada from the cruise ship have all been quarantined for another 2 weeks on arrival in Canada. What about everything in the normal lives at the same time?

This can happen anywhere, it does not have to be an area where the virus is already known to be present.
 

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Discussion Starter #99
Your situation Money172375, is typical of many that I was trying to get at when I wrote the OP of this thread.

Rather than deciding 'should we travel', you now have to take the possible loss of money into your decision making and that in many cases will influence people to do something they might otherwise decided not to do.

My wife was actually at her hairdresser's today and heard another woman saying that they were booked to fly to Milan and visit Venice. No one in their right mind should be flying to Milan or visiting Venice right now. But this woman was saying she had called earlier in the morning to ask what would happen if they decided they didn't want to go.

Answer, there is no travel advisory against flying to Italy, so no airline or insurance refund. Clearly, on the one hand the woman did not want to go given the circumstances and clearly she was agonizing over the money.
 

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My in laws booked a last minute cruise trip in beginning of January that left this week to from Australia ended in Hong Kong. We tried to get them to cancel, the cruise has diverted the last port to Singapore, and we just hope they are okay. I sent them with some mask, hand sanitizer and alcohol wipes and extra things for the cabin in case there are stuck in quarantine. We didn't want them to go, but they didn't want to lose the money and felt it was be fine. Hopefully all works out. We drove them to the airport, but have told them, that will we not see them for 15 days after then get home.
How did this story pan out?

Get us the hell off: Nearly 250 Canadians aboard ship with passengers, crew exhibiting flu-like symptoms
 
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