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Discussion Starter #61
Possibly, depends where ...


Not sure what your point is here? I can guess it's to backup an alarmist stance but better you expand on it so I fully understand.

Also, did this couple spark an out break of the virus? How many in their hotel are now sick?
Cainvest, the couple may have sparked an outbreak, that isn't known yet. The one guy who flew from a business meeting in Singapore to France has now resulted in ELEVEN cases in France, the UK and Majorca, Spain. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/09/fourth-person-in-uk-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

You seem to want to say that if one such incident happens that's no reason to think it will happen again somewhere else. Really? Each time one person is infected and that person travels to somewhere else, the risk of infection spreading exists obviously.

I really don't care to a degree (I don't wish anyone to get sick), if someone chooses to risk getting an infection. But I DO care if they then show up here and transmit it to me. WHERE in assessing the risks to YOU, do you place the risk to MY health? The guy who has now infected 11 people has infected ELEVEN people who are now at risk of DYING. If you are only risking something happening to you, that's your choice but when you increase the risk to ME, that should not be your choice to make.

How many people who are travelling do you think self-quarantine when they return home before venturing into say a supermarket, because they MIGHT have the virus and do not want to risk passing it on to others? The risk taken is not just a risk to that individual.

Maybe that will help you understand the point. The point is that travel increases the risk for EVERYONE, not just the individual who travels.
 

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You seem to want to say that if one such incident happens that's no reason to think it will happen again somewhere else. Really?
Not at all what I'm saying, the risks do increase with more people traveling.

What I am saying is the chances you'll get this virus travelling to many places (not all) in the world is sooooooooooo small it is barely worth considering.

I really don't care to a degree (I don't wish anyone to get sick), if someone chooses to risk getting an infection. But I DO care if they then show up here and transmit it to me. WHERE in assessing the risks to YOU, do you place the risk to MY health? The guy who has now infected 11 people has infected ELEVEN people who are now at risk of DYING. If you are only risking something happening to you, that's your choice but when you increase the risk to ME, that should not be your choice to make.

How many people who are travelling do you think self-quarantine when they return home before venturing into say a supermarket, because they MIGHT have the virus and do not want to risk passing it on to others? The risk taken is not just a risk to that individual.

Maybe that will help you understand the point. The point is that travel increases the risk for EVERYONE, not just the individual who travels.
I do understand that travelling increases the corona virus risks but by how much is the question? Everytime someone in Canada gets the flu and goes out in public it increases your risk as well right? Don't forget, people do DIE from the flu here!

Let's do a simple comparison for perspective ...
Deaths in Canada from the flu in 2018 - let's underestimate and say 1,000 (health canada estimate is 3,500 for 2018)
Deaths outside of China for the corona virus - 2 (WHO sitrep Feb 15th)

So, 1000 vs 2 .... do you really think travelling to a very low or non-infected corona virus area for vacation is a bad idea?
 

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Discussion Starter #63 (Edited)
Not at all what I'm saying, the risks do increase with more people traveling.

What I am saying is the chances you'll get this virus travelling to many places (not all) in the world is sooooooooooo small it is barely worth considering.



I do understand that travelling increases the corona virus risks but by how much is the question? Everytime someone in Canada gets the flu and goes out in public it increases your risk as well right? Don't forget, people do DIE from the flu here!

Let's do a simple comparison for perspective ...
Deaths in Canada from the flu in 2018 - let's underestimate and say 1,000 (health canada estimate is 3,500 for 2018)
Deaths outside of China for the corona virus - 2 (WHO sitrep Feb 15th)

So, 1000 vs 2 .... do you really think travelling to a very low or non-infected corona virus area for vacation is a bad idea?
Are you really that simple minded or do you think I am? Is this an indication of how you do your risk assessment that you say you are capable of doing for yourself?

First of all, there are no reliable figures to tell us how many people get the flu each year. There are no reliable figures to tell us how many die of it either.

Second, even if there were, you would have to wait till COVID-19 has ended before comparing mortality rates. You can't just pick 2 numbers out of the air to compare which is what you have done. That isn't a 'risk assessment', that is simply guessing about something in the way you want it to come out.

Try reading this fairly in depth article: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/flu-deaths-reality-check-1.1127442 In that article you will find the following: "Getting back to the question of how deadly influenza really is, fate did offer up a chance to check the model predictions when the flu pandemic hit in 2009, and the world faced a new influenza threat called H1N1.

Back then a flu expert told me that the pandemic would be a rare opportunity to check the true death toll from flu, because, for the first time, there was widespread lab testing, a national reporting system, and all eyes were on potential flu-related deaths.
"

(H1N1) pdm09 was a novel virus that emerged in 2009 as COVID-19 has now. " From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus." Globally it was estimated to have infected 20% of all people and resulted in 150-575k deaths. Poor reporting in many countries accounts for the spread but the USA numbers are fairly reliable.

So rather than guessing at numbers of how many people die from the flu each year, try using the most reliable numbers we have. 60 million cases in the USA and 12,469 deaths. You do not look at mortality rates without also looking at infection rates and then calculating the % of deaths. At 60m cases and 12.5k deaths you have an infection rate of 20% and a mortality rate of .05%

No one yet knows what the infection rate of this new virus COVID-19 is, nor the mortality rate. But in your infinite wisdom, you want to guess at what they are. That isn't a 'risk assessment'.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html It was fortunate that the (H1N1)pdm09 virus(Swine Flu) only had a mortality rate of .05%. SARS had a mortality rate of 10% but a far lower infection rate. There were only 8k cases of SARS reported world wide in 2003 and it only lasted 6 months. What if it had the same kind of infection rate that Swine Flu did and that 10% mortality rate? That could have been 20% of population infected and 10% mortality. If Canada were to equal those averages, that would mean 7.5M cases in Canada and 750k deaths. That guess is as valid as your guess, they're both just a guess.

We do not yet know how COVID-19 will play out. Now you can take a super optimistic guess if you wish or you can take a more cautious wait and see approach. That's entirely up to you, but do not try to suggest there is a 'simple comparison' you can make and call it a 'risk assessment'.
 

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Discussion Starter #64
Now an American woman who was on the Westerdam cruise ship has tested positive for the virus. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/16/world/asia/coronavirus-cruise-americans.html

Meanwhile all the other 1454 passengers have gone on their way, including 271 Canadians. Now where are those 271 Canadians today? In your supermarket or planning to go to work tomorrow as per normal? The Canadian health officials are now asking them to self-quarantine for 14 days. How many do you think will do so?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/as-canadians-return-home-from-westerdam-cruise-health-officials-urge-them-to-self-isolate-1.5466131

How many of the total 1454 passengers off that ship who have all gone on their way do you think will self-quarantine? I bet the WHO officials are tearing their hair out that this has happened.
 

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The number of infected on the cruise ship in Japan is steadily increasing. It appears that even a lock down quarantine isn't working.
 

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We're going to Italy and Switzerland for two weeks in August. I'm not sure what the odds are of getting coronavirus but the odds of me dying in the next 40 years regardless is about 100%.
 

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We're going to Italy and Switzerland for two weeks in August. I'm not sure what the odds are of getting coronavirus but the odds of me dying in the next 40 years regardless is about 100%.
But.......you might get caught in a quarantine and have to listen to mind numbing yodeling all day every day for weeks. :subdued:

 

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ok, so you say there is no reliable flu numbers then say "I'll use the most reliable numbers we have". So the US can track virus data but the rest of the world (Canada, WHO, etc) can't? Really? How good are the most reliable numbers, off by 20%, 500%? You can choose to ignore estimates and data, an alarmist's point of view BTW, and just decide by your fear you have about dying from the virus, that's up to you.

You can read the sitrep reports from WHO (I gather you don't trust their data either?) to see the current estimate of corona virus cases and deaths. I would definitely be concerned about travelling to areas if the numbers where steadily climbing. Both Singapore and Japan are showing a bit of an increase but the rest of the world is not.

At the end of the day WHO is NOT showing any significant number of new cases (almost all areas show ZERO) outside of China.

With regards to ...
Are you really that simple minded or do you think I am? Is this an indication of how you do your risk assessment that you say you are capable of doing for yourself?
No, not sure and yes, my assesment is based on estimates and available data.
And your assessment is solely based off of "a new virus is in the world" I'll be prudent and just stay in my home until it goes away correct?
 

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We're going to Italy and Switzerland for two weeks in August. I'm not sure what the odds are of getting coronavirus but the odds of me dying in the next 40 years regardless is about 100%.
Though the situation can change, currently I think the biggest risks you face are:

1. any travel segment by car (car accident)
2. standard flu and its complications
 

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Are you really that simple minded or do you think I am? Is this an indication of how you do your risk assessment that you say you are capable of doing for yourself?

First of all, there are no reliable figures to tell us how many people get the flu each year. There are no reliable figures to tell us how many die of it either.

Second, even if there were, you would have to wait till COVID-19 has ended before comparing mortality rates. You can't just pick 2 numbers out of the air to compare which is what you have done. That isn't a 'risk assessment', that is simply guessing about something in the way you want it to come out.

Try reading this fairly in depth article: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/flu-deaths-reality-check-1.1127442 In that article you will find the following: "Getting back to the question of how deadly influenza really is, fate did offer up a chance to check the model predictions when the flu pandemic hit in 2009, and the world faced a new influenza threat called H1N1.

Back then a flu expert told me that the pandemic would be a rare opportunity to check the true death toll from flu, because, for the first time, there was widespread lab testing, a national reporting system, and all eyes were on potential flu-related deaths.
"

(H1N1) pdm09 was a novel virus that emerged in 2009 as COVID-19 has now. " From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus." Globally it was estimated to have infected 20% of all people and resulted in 150-575k deaths. Poor reporting in many countries accounts for the spread but the USA numbers are fairly reliable.

So rather than guessing at numbers of how many people die from the flu each year, try using the most reliable numbers we have. 60 million cases in the USA and 12,469 deaths. You do not look at mortality rates without also looking at infection rates and then calculating the % of deaths. At 60m cases and 12.5k deaths you have an infection rate of 20% and a mortality rate of .05%

No one yet knows what the infection rate of this new virus COVID-19 is, nor the mortality rate. But in your infinite wisdom, you want to guess at what they are. That isn't a 'risk assessment'.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html It was fortunate that the (H1N1)pdm09 virus(Swine Flu) only had a mortality rate of .05%. SARS had a mortality rate of 10% but a far lower infection rate. There were only 8k cases of SARS reported world wide in 2003 and it only lasted 6 months. What if it had the same kind of infection rate that Swine Flu did and that 10% mortality rate? That could have been 20% of population infected and 10% mortality. If Canada were to equal those averages, that would mean 7.5M cases in Canada and 750k deaths. That guess is as valid as your guess, they're both just a guess.

We do not yet know how COVID-19 will play out. Now you can take a super optimistic guess if you wish or you can take a more cautious wait and see approach. That's entirely up to you, but do not try to suggest there is a 'simple comparison' you can make and call it a 'risk assessment'.
Speaking with an old colleague late last week. We were we talking about travel plans for the year. Her son has been on tour through asia for the last month and isn't slated to be out of Asia for another few weeks. The precautions they took were they did avoid all the hotspots in China, but they were just leaving Singapore. I mentioned that my in laws were on a cruise and were diverted. Again, she didn't think there was too much of an issue as they have the ability to dock else where (which they will) if it becomes worse. They are also deciding if they will go to Singapore at the end of March.

She wasn't too concerned, even though I looked concerned. She told me her spouse retired from the medical field a few years ago. He worked with infectious diseases, did work on during the Ebola, SARs, H1N1, MERS, and a couple of other things I had never heard of. He been called to see if he is available to consult for this work too. Essentially, he has been saying that though is this is more contagious than some of the strains, it has been really well contained. The mortality rate is higher than the flu but lower than all of the other diseases he has worked on. It is spreading faster than some other flus, but it is not as dire as the news make out to be.

They are taking the wait an see. They aren't cancelling their trip, but they aren't to go to the hotspots. As for the their daughter, they feel it's safe even in Asia, as long as they stay out of China. They did say won't fly out of anywhere in China, but other Asian countries are fine - for now. They suggested that if we were waiting to book, there's nothing wrong with that, just get good travel insurance and wait.

I asked them about the risk of catching in the airports/cruiseships. They said if you are avoided the hotspots, then right now, there are higher risks with many other things with higher impacts. They also told me to check WHO and CDC. I think before I book anything, I may give her a call.

Lots of things could happen, but unless there is a ban on travel and all people are forced into quarantine after any travel, it may spread more.
 

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Discussion Starter #71
This morning I watched some Canadians on the Diamond Princess speaking via Skype I guess. One couple were complaining that the flight coming to get them is going to be a date later than they were told they could get off the ship. Another couple were complaining about having to go into another 2 week quarantine after the flight back to Canada. Another couple were complaining that the husband who has just tested positive was going to have to go into a hospital in Japan while the wife who has tested negative will be getting on the flight back to Canada, they thought he should be flown back to Canada like the positive cases the USA flew back on their flights. Each and every one of them were talking about themselves and not one was concerned about the possibility of their bringing the virus back to Canada and infecting others.

Of course it is normal selfish human behaviour to be concerned with ourselves first but surely we should also give some thought to others as well.

There are still 150 Canadians on the ship who have not indicated whether they want to get on the flight back to Canada. Some are concerned about leaving their quarantined cabin and getting on the plane with others who may be infected. I can understand that. Some however, are saying that they are due to get off the ship anyway under the original 2 week shipboard quarantine and expect they can then just continue on with making their own travel plans from there!

They clearly are giving no thought to the possibility they could test positive the day after they get off the ship and meanwhile have come in contact with other people. All they care about is the 'inconvenience' to themselves.

Plugging Along, 'wait and see' is as I have been saying here, the only sensible answer at this time. If someone is in the middle of a trip, then they have to just avoid what they can as your colleague's son is doing.
 

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The 14 day quarantine period is supposed to re-start every time there is a new infected person.

It doesn't sound like that is the practice on the cruise ship which is concerning, there are apparently a continuing number of infections despite the quarantine.

The director a big hospital in Wuhan has died of the virus. He was a neurosurgeon and one would presume was taking all preventive measures.

People might rest easier if China let the American teams in to investigate. The information seems to be slowly leaking out of China.

Disruption to the global supply chain is a big concern for the Americans. The production of many medical supplies are in China. The US is currently performing an in-depth inventory of all their supplies.
 

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Discussion Starter #73
Passengers on the Diamond Princess are now being allowed to just leave the ship. They are simply being 'screened' for a high temperature (not 'tested') as they disembark. Off the ship, on a bus, in a taxi and away.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/passengers-begin-leaving-diamond-princess-after-virus-quarantine-ends-1.4818047

There is a 'lag' between being tested and getting the results, of about a day. Someone who tested negative yesterday, if tested again today could turn out positive. There is no way to know if a passenger disembarking today without a high temperature, would test positive tomorrow. Yet they are just being allowed to go on their way. That's just senseless.

Canada has not said what they will do regarding anyone who chooses to not take the chartered flight back to Canada and go into another 2 week quarantine period on arrival. The USA and some other countries have said that they will not allow their citizens to return to their home country for 'at least two weeks'. Who knows, maybe some of them will be travelling to a neighbourhood near you.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/asia/japan-health-guidelines-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html
 

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Discussion Starter #75
Looks like the first group quarantined in Trenton are still all in the clear and on track to be released tomorrow and the second group on the 25th.

It appears our quarantine system was far more effective than that used on the Diamond Princess.
 

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An inspector on the Diamond Princess said there were no quarantine protocols, and the place was an incubator for the virus.

Ship staff lived together in cramped quarters and were provided no protection. They delivered the food and messages room to room.

He noted passengers milling about together. He also said the passengers should not be allowed to disembark, but Japan released them anyways.

The US immediately instituted a new protocol for Americans leaving the ship and returning to the US.

They must undergo an extensive medical examination including throat swabs, 2 diagnostic swabs and can show no symptoms.

Only then will the be removed to the US where they will spend another 14 days in quarantine.

It sounds like the US is not at all confident China, Japan and other countries are performing best practices.

I hope Canada is following the US lead on repatriating Canadians.
 

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Discussion Starter #77
What I don't understand is why the media is not commenting on those passengers who are just being allowed to leave the ship and go on their way independently. A test done yesterday that shows negative does not mean anything in regards to someone's condition today.

Two of the Australian's who were flown back to Australia have now tested positive. When they got off the ship and were transported to the flight back to Australia, they had been previously tested as negative and showed no symptoms when they got on the plane.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/coronavirus-two-australians-evacuated-from-diamond-princess-test-positive-in-darwin

There are people who have disembarked and simply got in a taxi and drove away. Who knows where some of these people are now and if they have been infected or not. No one knows and no one seems to care. The media just keeps saying people tested negative and show no symptoms as if that means something. It means nothing as the two Australian cases show.
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/passengers-freed-from-quarantined-diamond-princess-pose-ongoing-risk-of-spreading-coronavirus-officials

A new case in BC reported yesterday is a woman who apparently got infected in Iran.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-s-new-coronavirus-case-is-woman-who-recently-returned-from-iran-1.4821112
 

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I had the unfortunate experience of attending the local hospital emergency department a few days ago.

Our son needed emergency care after fainting and banging his head on the concrete.

After a few hours he only got some of the treatment and diagnostics that he needed, because they were overflowing with patients. There were no chairs left to sit in the ER.

A CT scan for a major head injury was scheduled for a year from now.......a freaking year from now. Otherwise he was sent home to hope for the best.

Good luck dealing with an outbreak of the coronavirus with "hoping for the best". We need to keep the virus far away from our shores because we couldn't handle an outbreak.
 

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Our son needed emergency care after fainting and banging his head on the concrete.

After a few hours he only got some of the treatment and diagnostics that he needed, because they were overflowing with patients. There were no chairs left to sit in the ER.
Sorry to hear that, just terrible.

Good luck dealing with an outbreak of the coronavirus with "hoping for the best". We need to keep the virus far away from our shores because we couldn't handle an outbreak.
Agreed.
 
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