Canadian Money Forum banner

Traditionally Poor October Hasn't Hurt The Markets Yet

2525 Views 4 Replies 5 Participants Last post by  el oro
2009 ytd

nasdaq +34.6%
s&p/tsx +28.4%
s&p500 +18.0%
dow +11.6%
1 - 5 of 5 Posts

Look at Alcoa..revenues were up 9.5%..thats all the market sees....even though aluminum prices were up 18.3%, and they shipped 50,000 metric tonnes less than the quarter before. But revenues were up so everyones happy.
I've never bought into the Oct downturn idea.

If you were to take out the Great depression, Black Monday, and other 'catastrophic' events etc. I'm guessing equity markets in Oct perform about the same?

Anyone every seen data where the outliers were removed?

Now if you argued that the catastrophic market events happen in October, there's probably a lot of uncanny truth to that.
In was thinking about shorting the market this month but I think everyone has bought into the idea that you must be careful this October so those who would sell are out. This also will leave buyers behind so this market could go higher for some time yet maybe even until RRSP season ends with people buying back in.

I still believe this is a bear market rally and at some point we will head back down and we will get another good buying opportunity. I just don't think the world economy will be all that strong without the American consumer buying all that stuff that China and so on are still relying on. And of course in the US deficits are out of control and not improving.
Stocks and everything are up again recently with the falling USD. The USD hit that critical support point again today so it looks like it would have been a good day to go short again.

Multiple Asian central banks were trying to devalue their own currency by propping up the USD today.

Either USD falls through support and stocks have another strong wave up or USD rebounds and stocks correct a bit. Whichever it is, I hope it happens quick.
1 - 5 of 5 Posts
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.