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Discussion Starter #1
As of now, my portfolio value is back to where it was before the Covid crash.

My portfolio is a Couch Potato style mix, mainly VCN, VTI, VIU (Cdn, US, global) and ZAG for bonds. [20/20/20] : 40

How is everyone faring?
 

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portfolio value is back to where it was before the Covid crash
You count unrealized gains as your break even point? I'd consider break even getting back what I put in

I'm more concerned now that the market is back to all time highs than I was when the market was down
 

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Congrats to everyone benefiting from the rally. I'm now just above Dec 31, 2019 levels and that's including additional contributions and distributions. I think my Canadian holdings (primarily divvy payers) are the laggards.

That said, I am concerned that the markets are running before they walk. Even though the markets are forward looking, they aren't the economy, and things are opening up, there are so many industries and businesses that are going to struggle for the next year or two along with their revenues and profits. Kind of hard to justify a strong sustained rally. .
 

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Congrats to everyone holding on during the big swings. I have a low volatility portfolio and I'm up 7% since start of the year (YTD). Since one year ago, up 13% which is just crazy considering everything that has happened.
 

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I've done well past few months thanks to having time to watch the market and cash to deploy. Bought some VTI, Cdn equities, gold, crypto and it all went up in a short amount of time

Sold some taxable Cdn oil stocks for the tax loss harvesting and bought CNQ which also recovered nicely. Might sell some US equities now at all time highs. My laggards are POW and NTR

I'm just not cheering for all time highs right now. I don't want to sell and I don't like when the market feels overpriced
 

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I'm just not cheering for all time highs right now. I don't want to sell and I don't like when the market feels overpriced
The problem is that stocks have pretty much been expensive since the early 1990s, when Alan Greenspan started this "modern era" of central bank stimulus for any economic problem or shock.

Ever since then, stocks have been engineered higher using intervention and stimulus. That continued through 2001, then 2008, and again in 2020.

It's why value investing has been dead since the 90s. We're now approaching 30 years of overvalued stocks, so the problem is... can you really sit out? Or is this a permanent, new regime that will last until we reach old age?
 

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Or is this a permanent, new regime that will last until we reach old age?
Nothing is permanent and everyone's time horizon is different. I'm not sitting out but also not all in. The cracks have been showing for awhile and there are many signs of decline imo.

30-something looking at alternatives for when the house of cards inevitably falls down. 60-something would be completely different risk analysis
 

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Nothing is permanent and everyone's time horizon is different. I'm not sitting out but also not all in. The cracks have been showing for awhile and there are many signs of decline imo.

30-something looking at alternatives for when the house of cards inevitably falls down. 60-something would be completely different risk analysis
It's different for all of us. The baby boomers have mostly joined the stimulus party since many of them have been investing for a while. They've come to think that constant stimulus and market support is normal. The central banks have trained people to "buy the dip".

In your situation m3s, consider the possibility that the stimulus regime lasts for another 20 years. In fact, they may devalue the currencies in the mean time... it could be that you have to join the stimulus party, or your wealth will be devalued.

Would it really do you any good to wait this out another 20 years?
 

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In fact, they may devalue the currencies in the mean time... it could be that you have to join the stimulus party, or your wealth will be devalued.
Currency is being "printed" (not even - numbers are just created digitally) at unprecedented rate while the alternative is being adopted more and more everyday. I'm not holding my breath for the day the mass discover this boomer system is unsustainable but I'm at least diversifying
 

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Discussion Starter #10
Congrats to everyone holding on during the big swings. I have a low volatility portfolio and I'm up 7% since start of the year (YTD). Since one year ago, up 13% which is just crazy considering everything that has happened.
Thanks James. I held on. I also resisted the urge to buy on margin during the lows and go into debt. (I'm too old for that.)
 

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Thanks James. I held on. I also resisted the urge to buy on margin during the lows and go into debt. (I'm too old for that.)
I slightly regret not buying some things during that crash, but I also had to make sure I kept enough cash reserves. Since I'm self employed, cash management (including tax liability) has become more important than when I had a regular job.

I've found it helpful to separate my net worth into (a) cash, (b) investments. I periodically check the cash total and make sure I have enough. If I have excess cash, then I can add to my investments.
 

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Enjoying today's rally. I'm up 15% year year to date now in my Canadian portfolio. My balanced registered portfolios are now up 4% year to date. The S&P 500 is up about 1% in Cdn, and the TSX is down about 7%.

Really, as we discussed here in March, the lows were just easy buying opportunities. Such discounts. And most of the discounts lasted for several weeks. The volatility was insane though. But I have been waiting nearly 10 years for such a massive opportunity. My best move was selling high priced pipelines trading at multiples of book values and buying the producers at fractions of book value.

My #1 performer has been hands down CNQ. Bought shares as low as $11 but also at $15 and $16. Now around $29. CNQ is really performing arguably the best of nearly any oil and gas company in the entire world right now. Needs $31 WTI to sustain production, capital spending, and the dividend, and didn't have to write down one cent in assets because of their low cost position.
 

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CNQ is really performing arguably the best of nearly any oil and gas company in the entire world right now. Needs $31 WTI to sustain production, capital spending, and the dividend, and didn't have to write down one cent in assets because of their low cost position.
Somebody here cued me to CNQ in March and indeed did not disappoint. I mostly wanted to lock in some tax losses and flipped most of my oil stocks into it. I also got some CNR at $100 for a quick 20%. TSLA limit order missed by $10 for quick 150% but made that in crypto

But I have been waiting nearly 10 years for such a massive opportunity. My best move was selling high priced pipelines trading at multiples of book values and buying the producers at fractions of book value.
I fall into a similar trap waiting for major opportunities. I mean most stocks only fell back to what they were 2 or 3 years ago so waiting longer than a few years doesn't really make sense. VTI briefly dropped to 2017 prices but there was nearly as low at end of 2018 just over a year ago
 

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I missed the real gainers like CNQ...grats to those who bought but I wont own resource stocks...did load up on Fortis ...decent gain but I like these kind of companies. Still down 6% from my high mostly due to my bank stocks...but they are still paying dividends, that's all that really matters to me.

Maybe I was wrong to expect another drop...this has been no dead cat bounce. Happy new bull everyone?
 

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Up for the year. Went all in during the crash and a bit on margin. Took some winners off. I will keep the remainder for the long term. Not expecting such a quick recovery (so far), but pleased with the results.
 

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Definitely up for the year. 18% I think?
I started a pandemic portfolio in early April. It's up 30% so far. I was expecting to sell some of it in Q4 2021, but half of them are within spitting distance of what I thought I would sell them at already. Will try not to be greedy.
 

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As noted in the buying thread I did make some moves the past couple months which to date have benefited me in the very short term. I did miss out on some orders (CNR, MSFT, APLA) as I am underexposed to Rails and Tech. Both always sectors seem to be overpriced to me when looks at them. Perhaps I am using the wrong metrics. Yesterday saw a nice bump and if the trend continues I will likely close a few positions.
 

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Had a peek this weekend at the portfolio and at a glance I'm about 5% above early Feb levels. While a number of my holdings are still below Jan 2020 levels my covid-dip purchases have already made up for that. Hopefully things continue to recover from here, smooth and steady.
 
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