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To the bottom of the sea

3K views 22 replies 11 participants last post by  dubmac 
#1 ·
Oil down 30% VIX exploding higher S&P locked limit down and the US markets aren't even open for the week. Corona virus cases doubling every 3 days. What is to become of us?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4x8QmMFaJw
 
#6 ·
Imagine the reaction when California and New York are simultaneously hit with quarantines. Who is going to go through New York subways during an outbreak?

A lot to think about for Wall Street investment bankers there when they feel the fear in the subway when they go to work.
 
#9 ·
the warning signs were all there.....plain as the nose on your face:

Warning for Stock Market Investment

If you have a heavily afflicted Moon in the natal horoscope, it indicates fickle mind and such people should not invest in stock market.
The placement of Lord of 8th house in the 4th/5th/9th and 10th house in the natal chart indicates losses in the stock market.
The placement of Sun and Rahu in the 1st/5th and 9th house in the natal chart and if not aspected by beneficial Jupiter indicates a severe loss in stock trading.
The placement of the lord of 5h/9th and 11th in the 12th house indicates loss in the stock market.
Retrograde lord of 6th and 11th house placed in the 12th house also signifies the loss in the stock market.
If all quadrants are not aspected by any planet and if empty and Moon is placed in the 6th/8th and 12th house, the native will face severe losses in the stock market.
 
#17 · (Edited)
Sure. Lots of them. Especially the big dividend payors. They are and always have been a ponzi scheme waiting to blow up.

A recession, in its most basic definition, is a situation where companies are producing too much at too low of profit margin and probably many doing this while carrying too much debt. The recession is a process where the weaker players go extinct. This is either done by bankruptcy or merger, depending on the merits of that particular company.

That said, when the dust settles and it all ends, the benefits of a recession are that the remaining companies that survive, tend to become so much MORE profitable that they make up for the ones that go under. As long as you have a pretty good cross section of the market or industry, you cannot help but own both the losers AND the winners. Since the winners will benefit more then the losses taken on the losers, it allows an index and/or a portfolio to achieve levels that they could never have achieved if the recession did not happen.

The volatility that we see during these times is just the result of investors attempting to pick the winners from the losers. Since anything that is obvious, about one stock from another, is probably already priced in, an investor is best off to simply own them all and make no attempt at this futile effort.

That was long winded way of saying yes, if it lasts a long time, a few if not many energy companies will go bankrupt or get diluted to almost nothing by issuing stock at very low prices to meet debt and operational needs.
 
#15 ·
So much conflicting statements on the virus. I just heard on the news the virus is difficult to catch, isn't airborne and only lives a few minutes on surfaces.

Yesterday, I heard the virus is easily transmitted, can be airborne for some distance and can survive for days or weeks on a surface.

Small wonder people are panicking.
 
#19 · (Edited)
I think the financial dangers are more systemic and a lot more dangerous than a few oil companies going broke.

The derivative market today is far larger than it was during the last financial meltdown. Over half of all corporate lending is in the private non-bank sector.

Debt bond markets will determine how bad it will get, not the much smaller and inconsequential equity markets.
 
#20 ·
In a way this should be called a "relief crash". We all knew its coming sooner or later...now we are in it and I'm relieved this gas bag is deflating a bit. I feel sorry for those who are getting a haircut for the first time but hair grows back in time.
 
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