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Are you tempted to sell into this rally?

  • Yes

    Votes: 15 37.5%

  • No

    Votes: 25 62.5%
  • Total voters
    40

Time to get out of the market?

16881 Views 47 Replies 18 Participants Last post by  mike_bayer, 
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With the recent market rally - are you tempted to cash in and go to the sidelines?

Some industries have bounced >75% from the lows (Ag/fertilizers stocks), the CAD life-co's are up almost 50%, banks have recovered a lot etc.

No one has shown any real ability for sustained growth in this environment, we know both consumers and financial institutions are not spending - the major root of this down turn (tight credit) is still around.

I'm not bearish per se, certainly no bullish - I just think it'll take a long while before things start chugging. So, any of your tempted to sell, now that markets have recovered substantially? I know I'm tempted, don't know if I'll do anything though.
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Sampson said:
With the recent market rally - are you tempted to cash in and go to the sidelines?
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No. My wife and I don't like the idea of cashing out - especially since we don't need the cash. We have found that 10 years of gains significantly outweights any fast short term price increases.

Sampson said:
Some industries have bounced >75% from the lows (Ag/fertilizers stocks), the CAD life-co's are up almost 50%, banks have recovered a lot etc.
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Our stocks have run up 30% in a month. We don't expect that rate of growth to continue, but we won't sell either.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

Sampson said:
I'm not bearish per se, certainly no bullish - I just think it'll take a long while before things start chugging. So, any of your tempted to sell, now that markets have recovered substantially? I know I'm tempted, don't know if I'll do anything though.
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When prices are low and falling we are VERY bullish. When prices are high and rising we are VERY bearish. At the moment we find ourselves to be bullish far more than bearish. A year ago it was the opposite.
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thecomingdepression said:
You may want to view this Economic Advisor by the name of Martin Armstrong, if he is right, we will see a catastrophic event on April 20-23. He has predicted, with his mathematical economic model, many events that have happened. He is currently in JAIL because he refused to turn over this "model" to the US government. The Government claimed he was controlling the world markets. Goldman Sachs was the main whiner. Martin got 5 yrs in prison, if you can believe that! It must have some HUGE economical meaning for the government to put him away. I have read entire articles over the years and they are incredibly ACCURATE and SCARY..He just wrote one in the last few weeks I have it on my blog...We'll see how accurate he is over the next few days!
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I don't pay attention to predictions because I don't believe in predicting the future. If I did, I would also believe in fortune tellers... but perhaps I should pay more attention to fortune tellers who use 'mathematical economic models'? Yea, math definately lends more credibility to my fortune teller...
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confusion said:
Now the question is, when do I get back in?
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My wife and I hate this question; we're not smart enough to know the answer - which is one of the reasons we never get out.
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ethos1 said:
My wife can predict almost anything and be 100% wrong
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When I try to make predictions I usually come out with the same record.
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spbrunner said:
Before the last bear market, that start at the end of 2000, I had always waited until it was considered that the bear market was over before starting to invest again. This did not work out well, as I never got any really great deals in stock. In the last bear market, I invested when the market was on it way down. When I found a stock I liked at a price I liked, I bought. This worked out very well for me. The main problem was dealing with stock I bought go further and further down. However, in all my time investing since the '70's, I got some of the best deals I ever managed. I have been investing in this market basically since January 2009. I have been doing this carefully and slowing, but I have been investing. Is this bear market over? Will we have another down leg? I do not know. But, eventually, the market will turn and my portfolio will continue to be in great shape.
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My wife and I strongly agree.

Buy during bear markets and go to bed. Wake up in 10 years and enjoy the wealth.
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I don't know if it's a zero-sum game or not, but it sure is an easy way to build wealth!

"I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient." - Warren Buffett

"I have a name for people who went to the extreme efficient market theory which is "bonkers". It was an intellectually consistent theory that enabled them to do pretty mathematics. So I understand its seductiveness to people with large mathematical gifts. It just had a difficulty in that the fundamental assumption did not tie properly to reality." - Charlie Munger
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