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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Danielle Park of Venable Investment Council was a guest on BNN's MoneyTalk this week and she stated the opinion that it was a dangerous time to be invested in equities, commodities, and the emerging markets. She has cashed in ALL of her equity positions on behalf of her clients. She feels that buy-and-hold equity investors are in for a world of pain!!:eek::eek::eek::eek:

Here is the clip which I thought would be of interest to some out there who may not have seen the program:

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip378134

The program will be repeated Sunday evening at 9:30 EST.

These are shaky times for investors.

Any thoughts?
 

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Danielle Park of Venable Investment Council was a guest on BNN's MoneyTalk this week and she stated the opinion that it was a dangerous time to be invested in equities, commodities, and the emerging markets. She has cashed in ALL of her equity positions on behalf of her clients. She feels that buy-and-hold equity investors are in for a world of pain!!

Here is the clip which I thought would be of interest to some out there who may not have seen the program:

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip378134

The program will be repeated Sunday evening at 9:30 EST.

These are shaky times for investors.

Any thoughts?
All I can say about Danielle is that she is to equities what Garth Turner is to real estate. :)

Whatever your investment strategy is - just stick to it.
 

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I've stopped buying into equity in the last few months, as I "feel" that it's increase had been unreasonable. But my cash position is getting uncomfortably high now (10%).

But I think the lesson is that the market can stay unreasonable for much longer than you can guess.
 

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Danielle Park of Venable Investment Council was a guest on BNN's MoneyTalk this week and she stated the opinion that it was a dangerous time to be invested in equities, commodities, and the emerging markets. She has cashed in ALL of her equity positions on behalf of her clients. She feels that buy-and-hold equity investors are in for a world of pain!!:eek::eek::eek::eek:

Here is the clip which I thought would be of interest to some out there who may not have seen the program:

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip378134

The program will be repeated Sunday evening at 9:30 EST.

These are shaky times for investors.

Any thoughts?
You may want to consider tighter stop loss orders for your stocks and ETFs.
 

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Or investigate collaring your equities that are up with options to protect your gains. Much better than a stop loss when something like the flash-crash happens again... and it will.
 

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I almost feel like there should be a pop-up window that appears whenever someone tries to post something to the "Investing" forum that asks: "what's your time horizon" and "what's your risk tolerance," and your responses to those questions are included with your post.

Sometimes I get the feeling that people are talking past each other because they are starting with different assumptions. If "investing" to me means investing for a goal that's 20 years in the future (e.g., retirement) and "investing" for you means investing for income now or in the next few years, we're going to have totally different perspectives on risk and the wisdom of buying and holding.

I have seen no convincing evidence to suggest that someone investing for the long term should pay attention to these cries to get out of equities now. The idea that anyone can predict how equities will behave over the next 15 years is ludicrous. This doesn't mean I think they're a safe investment or that they will reliably beat inflation over the long term. It just means that, given your other options, if you want to try to beat inflation with your long-term investments, you have to invest a healthy portion in equities. It's a gamble that may or may not work, but putting all your money in bonds or GICs is a gamble too, because your portfolio's value will likely be eroded by inflation. So either way it's a gamble and you're taking your chances.
 

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I got this off her Juggling Dynamite website.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/238488-insiders-head-for-the-exits?source=email_watchlist

Insider selling is not a good thing. But even still usually Danielle is a little early so we should get a last spike.
Following up on that Seeking Alpha article - the graph they post shows that insider selling has been useless as a predictor of market tops. As I would expect, given that insiders sell for tons of reasons - but only buy for one. The previous spikes in the ratio did NOT predict market tops - check out the end of 2006 for example.

The spikes up in insider buying seem to be a bit more aligned with market bottoms, and yet they are not predictive based on what I see there. When prices go down insiders buy more and sell less... no surprise there as the insiders are normally given stock options and a strike price based on recent history. They are going to hold off on exercising options and selling since the strike price may be high enough that they would not collect any money or have any gains - why would the exercise options when they could purchase the stock in the market for less? They wouldn't.
 

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Yes. And I also find there are too many threads and posts describing some facet of our economy as some sort of a bubble. I think people are a bit jumpy after what happened in 2008 and are afraid it's going to happen again. I don't think we're in any sort of a bubble and wish we would all stop talking and worrying about it. Life is stressful enough as it is without constantly worrying that the economy is going to take a dive. Even if it does, nothing that is discussed here will do anything to stop it. There will always be ups and downs. Let's tone down the bubble predictions and stop worrying please.
 

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[ ... ]

I have seen no convincing evidence to suggest that someone investing for the long term should pay attention to these cries to get out of equities now. The idea that anyone can predict how equities will behave over the next 15 years is ludicrous. This doesn't mean I think they're a safe investment or that they will reliably beat inflation over the long term. It just means that, given your other options, if you want to try to beat inflation with your long-term investments, you have to invest a healthy portion in equities. It's a gamble that may or may not work, but putting all your money in bonds or GICs is a gamble too, because your portfolio's value will likely be eroded by inflation. So either way it's a gamble and you're taking your chances.
+1 for the points about the time horizon assumptions adding confusion to some discussions.

I also see no evidence for getting out of equities.

If I'd listened when the cry was "there's no more money to be made in oil", I'd have lost a lot of distributions and capital gains.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
As I have often stated, I consider myself to be a long term, buy-and-hold investor who is prepared to take the full stock market rollercoaster ride through all of the highs and the lows.

That said, I am finding that the older I get, the harder it is to stick with that strategy and conviction due to the diminishing timeline. Twenty years ago, with a longer time horizon, I thought less about it. I stayed invested during the 2008 crash and eventually regained my losses but, I may not have the same stomach for the next crash, whenever it comes.

It doesn't give me any more confidence when I hear of professional money managers who have their clients currently with ZERO exposure to equities due to their conviction that there are just too many uncertainties out there currently to have money in the markets.

Their current lack of conviction reflects my lack of conviction. However, I will continue with my 60/40 portfolio split equities to fixed income with the hope that I will have enough time left to experience the highs and the lows and still come out ahead when all is said and done.

My hope now is that we will end this year with the markets up at least 7 percent and that there are no flash crashes in store for us next year not withstanding more severe credit crunches and other potential Black Swan events.

Buy, hold, and prosper?:confused:
 

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Buy, hold, and prosper?:confused:
It's more like buy and hope IMO.

I don't think it's time to "exit equities" but at the same time I think you had better have a way to make money whether the market goes up, down, or sideways or for the next 10 to 20 years you will get nowhere. If you think it's bad now, wait until the boomers are all drawing on their savings and continually pulling money out of the market. There just are not enough people to put money in to keep up with it. Basing your investing strategy on a period where the boomers were progressively saving and investing more and more money each year is not going to work when that same demographic force is pushing the markets in the other direction.

This realization along with the events of the last few years is what has driven me to learn a lot more about investing and take control of my own money. I am investing a good bit of time and money learning about things like options strategies, dividend growth, etc., but I sleep well knowing that my portfolio can't be cut in half - that I'm protected. Now I'm in a position that I actually embrace the big swings and volatile markets as they give me great opportunities and far more gains than I would ever get doing buy and hold these crazy choppy markets.

I'm sure lots of folks here will disagree with my stance - and that's fine. But I would entreat all of you to read and study a bit about investing and finances and make your own decisions - don't just take other peoples opinions at face value, even if they seem to be the ones that are shared by the majority of "experts". I would say if the majority of experts all agree on something, you should not only be suspicious of that opinion but look for the contrary play as an opportunity.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
I think that article ends with a slam against Northern Ontario towns!! It was obviously written by a Miami Beach booster!!

On this forum and throughout the financial press, you can find as many different opinions are there are stars in the sky!!

The conclusion that I have drawn is that NOBODY KNOWS and I see that as an argument in favour of buying and holding.

If nobody else knows for certain, then it is darn well certain that I don't as well and neither does your advisor, or any of the pundits on BNN and CNBC, or any of the financial writers out there.

Sure, there were some out there who predicted the collapse of 2008 but much of that was probably from blind luck. Whatever happens in the future, there will be some who successfully predicted it but how do you ever know who is right!!

Just in the past day, I have read opinions varying from it's urgent to get out of the markets and fast to now is as good a time as ever to jump into the markets.

Either of these opinions may be correct or it might be something in the middle.

You pays your money and you takes your chances.

That said, my own personal experience is that, as you age, you generally become less tolerant of volatility because you have less time to experience the rebound and because you may be withdrawing money from your portfolio during market drops and that money becomes very difficult to recoup.

Those younger, with longer time horizons, and no need or plan to make any withdrawals for a number of years have less to be concerned about.

Tonight, I have been thinking about the performance of the Japanese stock market over the past 20 years.:eek::eek::eek::eek:
 

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Tonight, I have been thinking about the performance of the Japanese stock market over the past 20 years.:eek::eek::eek::eek:
Extremely good point that one. Especially when you consider that they started with a real-estate bubble that burst and have held interest rates extremely low for many years trying to get growth going. It's scary how similar it is to the policies in the US right now.

Now tell me, how is buy and hold going to do if we are flat for the next 20 years?
 

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I don't think we're in any sort of a bubble and wish we would all stop talking and worrying about it. Life is stressful enough as it is without constantly worrying that the economy is going to take a dive. Even if it does, nothing that is discussed here will do anything to stop it. There will always be ups and downs. Let's tone down the bubble predictions and stop worrying please.
you can't change the course of events by pretending they don't exist ....

the nikkei 225 was at 38,915.87 on dec 29, 1989 and it dropped to 7,054.98 on march 10, 2009 ... almost 20 years later and it's only above 10,000 today .....

the dow did not reach pre-1929 crash levels until 1954

i don't have enough good years left to weather either of those scenarios ....
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Remember the Japanese experience!!!:(

If we don't learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it!!

All investors, who think that we are preparing ourselves for a financially secure future in retirement, may end up living in poverty if the Japanese example is repeated elsewhere in the coming years.

Heh, you just never know for certain what the future will bring.

If our investments remain flat for the next twenty years, and we don't withdraw anything from our portfolios, we will end up having more or less the same amount as we have today.

Sadly, many of us will be forced to sell along the way and will never be able to recoup our losses and thus will end up with much less than we have today.

When making your investment decisions, consider the Japanese experience as history does sometimes repeat itself.:eek:
 
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