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I agree all 3 are possible.

However the simplest and most likley is the normal animal -> human jump that happens all the time.
It could have been a wet market, as that's an ideal environment for it.
Exactly ! Everything is possible! People here just don't get that China has completely different mentality than West.
Just during cultural revolution , China killed 40-80+ millions of their own citizens (more than Hitler and Stalin combined), so who cares about 3K Covid victims (mostly very old and sick people) ?!

And now , from BBC report
China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2028, five years earlier than previously forecast, a report says.
unlike other major economies, it has avoided an economic recession in 2020 and is in fact estimated to see growth of 2% this year.
 

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Discussion Starter · #22 ·
China doesn't seem interested in investigating where the virus started. Maybe that is because they already know.
 

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The definition of conspiracy:
a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful

There is nothing in the theory that Sags brought forward to suggest that this was in any way planned.

The theory of an accidental lab release is no more of a conspiracy theory than the pangolin theory. Neither theory suggests pre-planning for a desired result.

The conspiracy theory is China's efforts to hide, lie about, and cover up the accidental lab release. Nearly impossible to prove, but easy to believe.
Secretly weaponizing a virus is harmful.

Even if they accidentally made a more lethal version, accidentally releasing and covering it up is harmful.

Either one is arguably a "conspiracy theory"
 

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Discussion Starter · #25 ·
People are welcome to believe the Chinese claims that the virus origin was from........a bat, a snake, a pangolin or exported to China from the US.
 

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As I have no specific knowledge or expertise, I take a somewhat Bayesian approach in my mind and after reading the below and tracking the debate, I am firmly in the inadvertent lab release camp. Most striking to me is that we have apparently not found the intermediate host whereas in SARS1 and MERS it was ID’d relatively quickly. If a host is found, then I’ll likely swing back quickly.
Nicholas Wade Piece
 

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I thought it was widely considered now that it came from the lab? I never gave much weight to the wet market bat theory from the beginning.
 

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I thought it was widely considered now that it came from the lab? I never gave much weight to the wet market bat theory from the beginning.
I think it's politically advantageous to many different parties to keep the origins unclear.
 

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Most striking to me is that we have apparently not found the intermediate host whereas in SARS1 and MERS it was ID’d relatively quickly.
SARS linkage to its origin wasn't really established until 2017, almost 15 years after the outbreak.
 

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Discussion Starter · #32 ·
I thought it was widely considered now that it came from the lab? I never gave much weight to the wet market bat theory from the beginning.
That was the original assessment......more or less, from the WHO investigation, but they have walked it back a bit to say there needs to be more study because they didn't have access to all the data or researchers who worked there at the time. At best the WHO investigation created more questions than answers.
 

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That was the original assessment......more or less, from the WHO investigation
Here are the current WHO investigation results, (special note to the last line)

The team assessed the relative likelihood of these pathways and prioritized
further studies that would potentially increase knowledge and understanding globally.
The joint team’s assessment of likelihood of each possible pathway was as follows:
• direct zoonotic spillover is considered to be a possible-to-likely pathway;
• introduction through an intermediate host is considered to be a likely to very likely pathway;
• introduction through cold/ food chain products is considered a possible pathway;
introduction through a laboratory incident was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway.
 

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Discussion Starter · #34 ·
As I have no specific knowledge or expertise, I take a somewhat Bayesian approach in my mind and after reading the below and tracking the debate, I am firmly in the inadvertent lab release camp. Most striking to me is that we have apparently not found the intermediate host whereas in SARS1 and MERS it was ID’d relatively quickly. If a host is found, then I’ll likely swing back quickly.
Nicholas Wade Piece
Wow......that is quite a thorough and revealing article. I think the US Congress investigation should be talking to some of the people mentioned in the article.

The timing is quite eye opening. From the funding to the experiments to the lab accident to the diversion tactics of those involved......it all binds together to make sense.

I have no doubt the COVID escaped the lab in Wuhan and I think the Americans already know that.
 

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Discussion Starter · #35 ·
Here are the current WHO investigation results, (special note to the last line)

The team assessed the relative likelihood of these pathways and prioritized
further studies that would potentially increase knowledge and understanding globally.
The joint team’s assessment of likelihood of each possible pathway was as follows:
• direct zoonotic spillover is considered to be a possible-to-likely pathway;
• introduction through an intermediate host is considered to be a likely to very likely pathway;
• introduction through cold/ food chain products is considered a possible pathway;
introduction through a laboratory incident was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway.
Yes that was the original findings made public in February, but WHO have walked that back in March due to the global criticism of the investigation.

I don't think WHO has much credibility left anymore. They seem content to accept China's word for everything and don't act until forced to.

 

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Wow......that is quite a thorough and revealing article. I think the US Congress investigation should be talking to some of the people mentioned in the article.

The timing is quite eye opening. From the funding to the experiments to the lab accident to the diversion tactics of those involved......it all binds together to make sense.

I have no doubt the COVID escaped the lab in Wuhan and I think the Americans already know that.
While the Wuhan lab escape is possible, there is little evidence to support it.
Really what makes more sense, secret biowarfare experiement, released in the wild, like something out of a Tom Clancy novel.
Or that yet another virus simply made the animal -> human jump.

Trump and his "China Virus" conspiracies should take a nap till there is evidence to support it.

That being said, I do agree, Tam & the WHO have little credibility.
 

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Discussion Starter · #37 · (Edited)
You didn't read the article.

I was shocked to learn that the "safety deficiencies" in the Wuhan lab were that they were conducting experiments on these deadly viruses wearing a lab coat and gloves. I thought it would some kind of obscure failure to triple check the air hoses on the space suits or something.

Given that, It is surprising they got away with it for so long. It was an accident waiting to happen.

Nobody is saying the Chinese military (who actually control the lab) deliberately released the virus on the population. It is pure deflection from what actually happened to elevate it from an accident due to poor security protocols to a deliberate enhancement and release of the pathogen.

The scientists in the Wuhan lab were working totally unprotected and one of them caught the virus. They spread it around Wuhan and the rest is history.

I doubt even Tom Clancy would write a novel where the scientists in such a lab casually performed experiments on the world's deadliest viruses wearing only a lab coat and gloves. Nobody would believe that scenario. They would expect an accident while scientists were wearing a space suit and working in environmentally sealed rooms. At least, the pandemic type of movies I have seen.......that is how the accidents are imagined would somehow happen.

The Chinese top researcher....the "bat lady" publicly said that was their security protocol......so there is no denying that was the environment in that lab.

I would say there is a lot more evidence that the COVID origin was a leak from that Wuhan lab, than a natural animal to human transmission.

The Chinese have tried to prove a connection from animal to human and failed to do so. There is zero evidence of the virus originating naturally.

An animal to human transmission happens 1500 kms away from where it first appears....or it originates from within an unsecure lab conducting gain of function experiments on this very virus........only a feet away ?
 

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Yes that was the original findings made public in February, but WHO have walked that back in March due to the global criticism of the investigation.
I don't see how they "walked that back" ... lab incident was always on the table.

I don't think WHO has much credibility left anymore. They seem content to accept China's word for everything and don't act until forced to.
Well you can choose to think WHO is "in on it" or whatever but there is no science backing it escaped from the lab theory so ....
 

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You didn't read the article.
Yet another unsupported claim from the all knowing sags.

I was shocked to learn that the "safety deficiencies" in the Wuhan lab were that they were conducting experiments on these deadly viruses wearing a lab coat and gloves. I thought it would some kind of obscure failure to triple check the air hoses or something.
If you're shocked, you haven't been paying attention.

Nobody is saying the Chinese military (who actually control the lab) deliberately released the virus on the population.
Yes there are people claiming this. You might not be, but there are people making this claim.

It is pure deflection from what actually happened to elevate it from an accident due to poor security protocols to a deliberate enhancement and release of the pathogen.
We don't know what "really happened".
Saying it was an accident might very well be deflection from what actually happened.

or the whole wuhan lab thing is being pushed because people will be very scared if they think something like COVID19 can happen naturally (which it does)
To think about it, it's kind of terrifying that nature can come up with a virus that can run wild across the world sickening and killing millions. Many people would be much happier thinking "oh this was just some evil scientists in a secret lab"

The scientists in the Wuhan lab were working totally unprotected and one of them caught the virus. They spread it around Wuhan and the rest is history.
that is one theory.

I doubt even Tom Clancy would write a novel where the scientists in such a lab casually performed experiments on the world's deadliest viruses wearing only a lab coat and gloves. Nobody would believe that scenario.
You clearly haven't read many Tom Clancy books.

At least, the pandemic type of movies I have seen.......that is how the accidents are imagined would somehow happen.
Movies? Read a book

I would say there is a lot more evidence that the COVID origin was a leak from that Wuhan lab, than a natural animal to human transmission.

The Chinese have tried to prove a connection from animal to human and failed to do so. There is zero evidence of the virus originating naturally.
No evidence, except it's very common to have viruses go from animals to humans.
And that experts have been raising concerns about this for decades.

Do you really think they spend millions monitoring for swine flu to protect the bacon supply? No it's because they KNOW another swine flu could jump at any time.


The simplest explanation is that this pandemic, like every other pandemic in history is from a naturally occuring source.
 

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The simplest explanation is that this pandemic, like every other pandemic in history is from a naturally occuring source.
Exactly, there are even many examples of covid jumping from humans to animals and from animals to humans since this began. What's so hard to believe?
 
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