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"Chaudi: If you think things are going to get worse, why wouldn't you wait to pick up even larger bargains? "

Yes your right and that's what i'm thinking. But this house is only 150k, my rent is 9k for 6months, if i wait a year i'll have saved 20k. I'm not so sure these houses will devaluate so quickly because they are already so cheap.

(ps, i'm awake now because the stupid tenant in the basement apartment woke me up!
 

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Discussion Starter #22
Amen Captain. Anyone that thinks we can dodge the downturn is not thinking clearly. It won't be as bad but then that's not saying much.
Ya, but this bear rally is making me sweat. Please council me NOT to buy anything... I need group support. lol

Repeating... i am not a trader...i am not a trader..i am not..
 

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I'm sure y'all heard the news today - Canada's economy is racing forward at breakneck speed, and collecting NYT accolades. Rates are ticking up. But its all Ontario in the job growth, and health-care is leading the way. Interesting times.

Edited to add, and Quebec
How does health care pay for itself?

I mean, if most of the jobs are in health care and health care is subsidized...doesn't that mean that health care is paying for itself in a way?

I'm very worried as an engineer about my long-term job prospects in Ontario. I don't see a very good future ahead.
 

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Discussion Starter #24 (Edited)
How does health care pay for itself?

I mean, if most of the jobs are in health care and health care is subsidized...doesn't that mean that health care is paying for itself in a way?

I'm very worried as an engineer about my long-term job prospects in Ontario. I don't see a very good future ahead.
What industry do you work in? If i was a forestry eng, i'd be very worried. Robotics, not so much.

Heathcare is a drag on the economy.

In order to understand this economy ACCURATELY, you have to eliminate the noise. At the top, in order of importance-drivers, is the US economy. Stop there, until that's figured out.

What drives the US economic cycle? Answer: investment in residential housing. (that's a hard, unshakable fact, where you can drive a stake in the ground, if you want to read the abstract, i'll send you the link).

Where's investment in RRE going? answer: down

Why is the US RRE going down? answer: over-supply and under-demand

Why is there an over supply? answer: Greenspan. Monetary policy in the US, cheap cost of money from 2002-2005 created a massive RE bubble. 3 trillion in excess lending, money that had no economically-sane reason to be loaned in, was.

Why is there an under-demand for housing investment? answer: consumers over-borrowed 3 trillion dollars 2002-2005, and household balance sheets are badly damaged.

When will the cycle turn? answer: not before 5 years, when RRE bottoms in the US

There, that eliminates the noise.
 

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What industry do you work in? If i was a forestry eng, i'd be very worried. Robotics, not so much.
Nuclear with prior experience in Industrial Automation.

When will the cycle turn? answer: not before 5 years, when RRE bottoms in the US

There, that eliminates the noise.
So what does this mean in Ontario? The same applies here?
 

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Well, as far as I call tell, our nuclear plants aren't going anywhere. I wouldn't worry about Ontario too much, as an engineer. It's one of the more dynamic manufacturing economies in North America and it has a lot of diversification.
 

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Discussion Starter #29
Nope which worries me. Time to move/run?
Where would you run to - India? China? France?

Canada is going to slide down the pole just like all the G7 economies, the comfort is, we will maintain our position on the pole, IMHO...thank god bank of Canada rates are cooling off the crazy borrowing. Canadian households are in deep, way above healthy household debt to house price ratios.
 

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Where would you run to - India? China? France?

Canada is going to slide down the pole just like all the G7 economies, the comfort is, we will maintain our position on the pole, IMHO...thank god bank of Canada rates are cooling off the crazy borrowing. Canadian households are in deep, way above healthy household debt to house price ratios.
India or China, or the Middle East wherever I can secure a relatively good job if I'm out of luck here.
 

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China looks good now - but their dirty secret is beginning to show its ugly head. Their banks have extended themselves thin, and some are not being repaid by their borrowers (sound familiar). Hopefully this can be contained.

On the other hand, China is also in the midst of a shift from producer to consumer economy - which would be good news for China, but perhaps not such great news for the Western world - interesting changes afoot.
 

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Looking at the yield curve for Canadas and comparing with a year ago:

20428

Yields are certainly lower, but the yield curve is no longer inverted and show a healthy slope. I don't know if this is just incidental, but in my books a normal slope should always be welcomed!
 
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