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I still find it funny as I recall Musk saying in May 2020 that Tesla was overvalued. Then, he just sh*t up and enjoyed the ride to the first position as the wealthiest on Earth, laughing out loud as the stock is now 6x its May 2020 price. He can play with us fools as much as he wants and still make 6x in a few months. Think about it, Tesla's CEO told publicly that the stock was overvalued. That kind of statement from a CEO should usually be harmful for the stock. It went down the day after, yet it's now at 6x. Let just the market valuate TSLA as high as they wish.

See the case with Blackberry doing a press release because it can't justify their stock's 150% soar in a month. It makes no sense that companies must now tell "investors" to calm down.

The distinction between "disruptive" and "speculative" is very thin. At some point, the rise of a so called "disruptive" stock will enter the "speculative" zone once the valuation gets higher and higher.

Look at Acuity Ads. When will the potentially disruptive Illumin enter the speculative zone? That stock has been soaring more than +1300% in a year.

If we have no means to valuate disruptive stocks, then does that make them speculative?

Cathie Wood may be convincing about how bullish she his on Tesla, but her job is also to sell us her ARK ETFs. My spouse saw one of her video where Cathie Wood talks with a genomics expert and she told me that Cathie's questions and comments show that she's totally clueless about genomics. How clueless is she about other industries, like Tesla? You know, when you're good at marketing and selling, when someone starts getting excited about something, you just continue reinforcing their beliefs as much as you can, you manipulate the momentum of his emotions.

It's not because the bet Cathie made in 2019 about Tesla turned out well that it'll continue in the future. That's like the bearish people saying the market will crash until the market truly crashes and then saying "told ya". It's not because it happened once that it's now a hero.

Also, why do you think Cathie is opening a space ETF? She's all-in with Musk's influence.

ARKK has been there since 2014 and it's been a hero only in 2017 and 2020. But those years were so great that it made ARKK a good investment choice, even though the performance is inconsistent. Let's just say it's the volatility of disruptive innovation and as long as there's more upside volatility, it's a good option.

That being said, I'd buy ARKK, but I'm aware of these risks.

Though I wouldn't buy TSLA at this point. I'd let it cool off from its amazing year and see if it stabilizes. Earnings in 1 day.
 

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Investing 101, easy money for the ultra-wealthy:
  1. Buy a stock
  2. Send a Tweet "I love this stock"
  3. Stock soars
  4. Sell the stock or send another Tweet
  5. Repeat
 

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ARKK has been there since 2014 and it's been a hero only in 2017 and 2020. But those years were so great that it made ARKK a good investment choice, even though the performance is inconsistent. Let's just say it's the volatility of disruptive innovation and as long as there's more upside volatility, it's a good option.
I came across ARKK and Cathie Wood first because of their presence in crypto. Another day years ago I noticed Elon Musk replying to her on Twitter (one of like 100 people he follows). Again this was several years ago. Few days ago a colleague mentioned her and suddenly I'm seeing her mentioned everywhere I look

She seems to ignore short term noise and look +10 years out. Some people have a knack or intuition for disruptive big picture long term potentials without worrying about the smaller details. Rather than analyzing bloomberg terminals in cubicles like everyone else she brainstorm with likeminded investors and send them to network with the industry

I always seem to get excited for things +10 years before they become mainstream. I try to bounce thoughts off others but the vast majority of people can't see that far. It made me second guess myself and miss out on huge investments. Once I stopped listening to all the naysayers it eventually comes to fruition

The best investments like this start out very slow with little interest. Especially if everyone else disagrees because they have blinders on or simply don't have the long term vision. She hasn't wavered from her investments for a long time it's not like she jumped on the bandwagon with the masses at the end
 
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GameStop (GME), or how to become a millionaire within 6 months.

Up +90% so far for today only.
Up +3575% in 6 months. That's nearly 37x.

When you think the bubble is about to burst, but then the stock goes +90% the next day...
 
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Discussion Starter · #66 ·
GameStop (GME), or how to become a millionaire within 6 months.
Yes, incredible move today.

So here's the question. Why would you bother with any dumb old index based investing technique, even TQQQ which will only make you a few percent a year.

Why bother with any of that when you can just buy GameStop and make all your profits in one day?
 

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Discussion Starter · #67 ·
Should be noted that all major media outlets, CNBC etc were talking a ton about GameStop yesterday. So overnight, many greedy speculators were waiting to pile into the stock today.

But you can see in BB that the speculating public completely gave up on their idea of pushing BB up again. So to really "trade" this kind of strategy, you would have to be very on top of which hot themes are in play. You'd have to monitor all the message forums, monitor the media, watch the options activity, and then actively adjust your trading.

It's not necessarily that easy to jump on GameStop. The same thing could have happened to BB. How would you know where to deploy your capital?

Wouldn't you already have been fully invested in TSLA, PLUG, FCEL, BLDP when the GameStop story appeared? This isn't so easy.
 

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Yes, incredible move today.

So here's the question. Why would you bother with any dumb old index based investing technique, even TQQQ which will only make you a few percent a year.

Why bother with any of that when you can just buy GameStop and make all your profits in one day?
Stock market lottery. Catch the rocket while it's rising before it starts dropping back into the ocean.

I don't have the experience yet to catch those epic momentum trades. Maybe small ones, but not those one. When I see a stock soaring +500% in 6 months, I'm tempted but then I tell myself "it can't go any higher, you'll buy and it'll start dropping, too much downside". And then it goes to +800%. Then +1100%. Then +1500%. Then...
 

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I believe there are no technical indicators to help... Or is there? GME's RSI is at 96, almost topping the upper limit of that indicator.
 

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Discussion Starter · #70 ·
Stock market lottery. Catch the rocket while it's rising before it starts dropping back into the ocean.
It's an interesting concept and I'm fascinated by stuff like this too. But it would be a whole art & skill in itself.

I've also invested through different phases of the market and I see another problem with this. This kind of approach might be working for the last couple of months, but we're in a very bullish market with speculative manias happening right now.

The market isn't always like that. Especially in a bear or sideways market, those kinds of things don't happen. I vividly remember times in the market in the early 2000s when it seemed like any potentially hot stock you looked at would immediately start crashing. The strength was non existent, and no speculators were willing to keep pumping things higher.

And the last time I remember seeing conditions like today's were maybe around 2004-2005.

So let's say it's feasible (today) to chase some bubble stocks as they shoot higher. These conditions are probably quite rare in the big scheme of things. So I don't see how you can really act on that for long-term investment.

I realize @MrBlackhill you said somewhere earlier (I think) that your focus isn't long term investment but short term gains? If so, this kind of thing might be up your alley.

But for me, I'm concerned with long term investment and getting steady returns over decades. I don't see any viable way to sit around waiting for conditions like these to occur. Does that mean I'd do passive investing in other periods, and then suddenly abandon all that and start jumping into speculative manias when they occur once every 10 years? Just doesn't seem viable to me.
 

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I realize @MrBlackhill you said somewhere earlier (I think) that your focus isn't long term investment but short term
I'm long term, but if I can make money fast I'll be able to retire soon so it'll be short term. (I'm just joking...)

I plan (or hope) to keep most of my stocks on the long term. I currently have only two stocks I know I'll dump after I feel I'm done with their recovery. Also, since I have a lot of exposure to small caps, I'll certainly dump some losers from time to time.

If ever I feel comfortable with some momentum plays, I may try my skills on stocks I'd hold for only a few months, but I don't think I'll have enough free time to work on that strategy, so I just plan to go long and reassess every few months that everything is still on the right track.

Or maybe I should sell my whole portfolio, buy GME and retire in 6 months? Seems like a good retirement plan! (Joking)
 

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Ok, wow... After a +92.71% in a day, GME is already currently at +52.11% after market.

I'm very curious to witness the outcome of that stock and even more curious about WHEN.
 

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I'd be interested by the patterns. Not sure if there's some advanced technical trader among us.

Look at GME (1-month) and look at AT.TO (6-month), they were both rising fast, then they spiked and dropped back, but then continued. Some say that as long as the stock makes higher highs and higher lows, it's bullish. That's what happened.
 

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BB has been pumped up by Reddit users a lot recently too. You basically just need to dump your money in a few random stocks and pray they come for that one next.
It reminds me of BTC and Crypto a few years ago, when people started taking out loans to buy it.
 

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Investing 101, easy money for the ultra-wealthy:
  1. Buy a stock
  2. Send a Tweet "I love this stock"
  3. Stock soars
  4. Sell the stock or send another Tweet
  5. Repeat
A person who shall not be named, also known for his number, 45, also used to tweet alot. If you can filter out all his noise, you would have been able to make a lot of money based on his market manipulation.
 

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Discussion Starter · #79 ·
Matt Levine has a nice Bloomberg column discussing GameStop and Reddit.

He outlines this hypothetical, honest pump & dump where there is no deception, no fake news, no insider information.
  1. I show up on Reddit and say “hey let’s pump GameStop.”
  2. We all buy GameStop, knowing that we’re just doing it for the pump, with no real or fake catalyst for the stock to go up.
  3. It goes up, because we bought a lot of it.
  4. Other people see us doing this, read my Reddit post, know we are pumping the stock, and also buy it, because we seem to be having fun, and they like fun too.
  5. Eventually some of us get bored and start selling and the price collapses.

But nobody really knows what's going on with GME and BB. There could be more nefarious activity and the SEC could pursue it.
 

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She seems to ignore short term noise and look +10 years out. Some people have a knack or intuition for disruptive big picture long term potentials without worrying about the smaller details.
In 1998 Catherine joined Tupelo Capital where she became a portfolio manager. I was reading somewhere that her fund lost like 80% in 2000.
I don’t know about her intuition that time. Now she is 65 years old and for some reason no one heard about her before.
 
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