[MrMatt]

Ethereum is not a security.

How do we define if they're in a bubble? If they never pop, and they become the next Amazons/Netflixs/Googles, then maybe they're not bubbles. Maybe we can only safely call them "bubbles" after they pop?

<sarcasm>If they're full of nothing but air, they're a bubble. If they stay that way for a while, maybe they're a mylar balloon.

Really we're talking about stocks that have prices that are far beyond what they are worth.

I held off years before buying Google and Amazon, because I didn't understand the valuation. Maybe that's the case here.

 

[MrMatt]

Me too. Same for Apple, Tesla etc. They always intrigue me then I read on here how overvalued they are

Exponential growth is hard to understand until it's hindsight

I think Apple is a bit overvalued, but they're moving a lot of their revenue from devices sales to the App Store.

 

[MrMatt]

Its valuation is based on the beliefs of the disruptive technology and current moat, which makes it hard to valuate. That's why it's a big debate.

What "disruptive technology" does Tesla have?

Everyone has electric cars, superchargers, over the air updates (if they want), self driving capabilities.

The Tesla moat is simply reputation and brand status, which while valuable, aren't a great moat.
Apple has has reputation and status, but as well the ecosystem lock in.

 

[MrMatt]

They are way ahead of everyone for autonomous cars, batteries, autonomous taxis and ride hailing etc. Here are 2 articles explaining their edge.

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

Based on new research, ARK is sharing our latest model to clarify what we believe is Tesla’s potential. A Tesla price target of...

ark-invest.com

Could a Tesla Ride-Hailing Network Run Over Uber and Lyft?

The Tesla ride-hailing network could offer a compelling value proposition to both drivers and customers as they emerge from the COVID-19 crisis.

ark-invest.com

I'm aware of those reports
I don't think they're significantly ahead of anyone in those areas.
It's interesting that you claim they're ahead in autonomous cars, autonomous taxis and ride hailing.

Honestly the biggest barrier to autonomous vehicles at this time is regulatory approval and the liability problem. The technology in many cases is already better than human drivers.

They might be slightly ahead in batteries, one of the most critical parts, but they're way behind in high quality mass production.
The quality rankings of Tesla have dropped significantly, which is expected as they shift from unique and premium and more into the mass market.

If their only technical advantage is battery tech, they're one innovation away from being second place.

 

[MrMatt]

From the reports they are. Uber and Lyft are unprofitable too.

Yes, reports pumping a stock make claims that the company is technologically ahead.

What relevance is the profitability of Uber and Lyft?
I'm not buying them because their valuation doesn't make sense either.

Uber is only popular because they have an easy to use app, and they simply ignored all the laws that make taxis expensive.
Take away the cost advantage an dialing #taxi on your phone is very close.

 

[MrMatt]

They have teams of researchers and do this for a living and know more about the stock then you or I ever will so I am inclined to listen to their advice. They get nothing for pumping any stock. Their record is on the line though. The 'relevance' of Uber is they are struggling and Tesla isn't in comparison giving Tesla a competitive edge IMO but you can believe what you want.

Tesla and Uber are completely different companies in completely different industries.

GM just announced they're building their Electric delivery vehicle in Ontario. Looks like a Ford Transit, with better range.
This is really good news for them, not so great for Tesla, which hasn't been working on the commercial market.

 

[MrMatt]

But again they both will be competing in the ride hailing industry and autonomous taxis.

Ride hailing and autonomous taxis is a commodity.
You'll pick Uber/Lyft/Ford/Tesla based on mostly price and time to pickup.
Not many are going to pay 10% more, to ride in a specific make.

Look at rental cars, they rent by "class". I expect that autonomous taxis will end up the same.

 

[MrMatt]

I own a sliver of BABA, don't like a lot about them, but they're desperately trying to be the Chinese Amazon.

 

[MrMatt]

I'm not expert, but when I look at their fundamentals and financials compared to AMZN, they've been growing much faster and at higher profit margin with lower debt. And yet they also have a lower P/E. But their return on equity is lower.

Their ownership structure was a disaster, I don't understand it.

I as a rule don't invest in things i don't understand.

 

[MrMatt]

Everyone has this, you say?

Sounds like someone who hasn't tried the products on offer.

Yes, all the major automakers have electric vehicles.

 

[MrMatt]

Also, some Redditors are researching hedge fund company positions and listing all the stocks they are shorting.

They are "targeting" individual hedge funds.

Hedge funds lost $5 billion yesterday. The carnage continues and there may be fund collapses.

One person said......populism on social media has spilled over from politics to finances.

This is going to end badly for those involved.
1. It will increase volatility,
2. The activist agitators will lose a lot of money. << Self correcting problem IMO.
I hope it doesn't spill over.

Personally I like that hedge funds exist, though I don't invest in them.

The biggest fear is that there will be a call for regulation.
At the end of the day, I own my stocks, and I'm happy with the corporate performance. If someone wants to overpay, or sell me those stocks for political reasons, that's just fine by me.

 

[MrMatt]

Playing computer games would be much healthier. Sigh.

Oh yeah.

FYI the epic store actually puts out first rate games free.

 

[MrMatt]

Do you know of any good Epic games that run on linux?

I'm really not up to speed with computer games today. I'd like to get back into it, but I have too much work on my hands (which I am thankful for)

But a few years ago, I was pretty addicted to FPS games like Wolfenstein Enemy Territory, and then later AssaultCube. It was pretty great.

i've been using primarily Linux since the early 90's.
Steam does Linux games, Epic does not.

I game on windows & PS3/PS5 & Wii/Switch (I skip a generation on gaming consoles, because the playability doesn't change much )

 

[MrMatt]

There's no such thing. Acting like a real person means acting with humane emotions.

Not quite.

GPT3 stuff is pretty convincing.
Acting is acting.

Decide to project an emotion, then manifest the cues to that emotion.
No emotion needs to be felt.

 

[MrMatt]

Maybe it's time to create a pure bubble portfolio? Perhaps 1 share each of
GME, BB, AMC, EXPR, KOSS, NAKD

For the above, yesterday's gain was 235%
And today's pre-market gain is +43%

We all know that diversification is key lol

Lottery tickets have better odds

 

[MrMatt]

An AI doesn't know what is an emotion and why. Sure, it can repeat the cues. It won't ever repeat the evolution of the behaviour the same way a human would.

The AI trying to mimic humane behaviour on YouTube will just base itself on its own "understanding" from the aggregated information it has collected from its "learning". It may work out good enough for a simple test, sure.

AI learning has many pitfalls simply because it's not the same kind of intelligence.

Where AI will fail, human will succeed.
Where AI will succeed, human will fail.

Humans have pitfalls, AI have pitfalls, and their understanding is totally different so the way they complete a task is totally different.

Have you ever watched kids learn to interact?
They start out mimicing behaviour, and many people revert to that in situations they don't know what's going on.

I think social referencing is more at play than people think.
In fact, mirroring and other "cheats" can be used to connect to people.

 

[MrMatt]

I've worked a lot with AI and I can just tell that you cannot compare AI learning to kids learning.

AI can sure give an illusion to some extent, but no more.

You are still referring to the acting part in social interactions, but that's just a small part of the human behaviour.

We try to understand humans with the Johari window. It helps understanding relationships and behaviours. That Johari window won't ever apply to AI.

You are glancing on my point.

AI can act like a human.
You say they can "give an illusion", an illusion is all acting is.

 

[MrMatt]

You would know, I'm sure.

Given your posting history I'm not surprised you mentioned GPT3

Not sure if that was a slight accusing me of being an AI. Of course take an intro philosophy course and debate if you're a brain in a bucket, or not.

A robot wrote this entire article. Are you scared yet, human? | GPT-3

We asked GPT-3, OpenAI’s powerful new language generator, to write an essay for us from scratch. The assignment? To convince us robots come in peace

www.theguardian.com

Well I can read and that article is about as well (or better) "thought out" than most articles

 

[MrMatt]

Intelligence is consciousness and free will.

You're getting into a major philosophical discussion at this point.
It's an interesting discussion if free will exists, or it's just the illusion of free will.

 

[MrMatt]

Forget Gamestop and AMC, those are old news. Bo-oring.

Now social media is abuzz about Dogecoin. It's a krypto koin based on a dog meme. It looks like it's up 5x to maybe 6x (six fold) since yesterday.

The fact that you're using K for crypto is suggetive..

If you think it's a silly meme coin you're missing the point.
It's a social coin, also the way it work with Litecoin was a very interesting technical development at the time.