You are correct that the cost/benefit to RRSP depends on your tax rates at contribution vs withdrawal, and that it is impossible to predict. But at $50,000 you are at the bottom of the 2nd tax bracket, about in the middle of possibilities. So there is a pretty good chance you will be withdrawing eventually at the same rate. So no differential cost/benefit from TFSA.
You are only allowed to put $5,000/yr into the TFSA and at $50,000 you certainly should be saving (two times) more than that. So the issue here is only what to do with the first part of your savings.
You restricted the discussion to "retirement". That is a error. All savings that increase your net worth are savings 'for retirement'. There is nothing to be gained from labeling different pots. The problem with doing so is that you end up putting money into 'retirement' even while you are borrowing money for a new car or realestate downpayments etc. You do not save money by borrowing.
You do not mention owning realestate. At your age it is premature to work on the presumption that you will NOT want any. I am against using the RRSP for RE downpayments (simply because you can is not a reason). But the TFSA is perfect for savings for that purpose.
I say put the first $5000 into the TFSA and the next $$ into the RRSP.
You are only allowed to put $5,000/yr into the TFSA and at $50,000 you certainly should be saving (two times) more than that. So the issue here is only what to do with the first part of your savings.
You restricted the discussion to "retirement". That is a error. All savings that increase your net worth are savings 'for retirement'. There is nothing to be gained from labeling different pots. The problem with doing so is that you end up putting money into 'retirement' even while you are borrowing money for a new car or realestate downpayments etc. You do not save money by borrowing.
You do not mention owning realestate. At your age it is premature to work on the presumption that you will NOT want any. I am against using the RRSP for RE downpayments (simply because you can is not a reason). But the TFSA is perfect for savings for that purpose.
I say put the first $5000 into the TFSA and the next $$ into the RRSP.