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I'm sure someone did.

But it's different, you're buying a device you own and use, and you get the Apple system, and the device brand/OS matters. That being said, I think Apple will have trouble justifying their price premium to the next generation who grew up on Chromebooks. iPads are nice, but if all you're doing is using Gmail and google Chrome... why pay the Apple premium.

With self driving uber, you're buying transport, the brand stamped on the wheels doesn't matter.
Only Uber doesn't have a self-driving program anymore, and Tesla can only be used in their own ride-share network.
 

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so much progress was made with deep neural networks and AI
DNN, ML, GA and AI are the hot keywords of the decade, but as I worked in that industry we know it's oversold. There's no intelligence, there's no learning, there's no abstracting, it's just an algorithm like many others and we've put fancy names to what has inspired those algorithms. Computers are good at one thing : computation. Computers are bad at one thing : understanding the world.

A paper revealed in October 2019 how they could fool a DNN analysis about picture categorisation by modifying only a single pixel in that image.

Humans can be fooled with many documented optical illusions but DNN can be fooled a lot easier. "Deep Neural Network" is a cool sci-fi name and it does a lot of great things, but it's not the solution to everything. It was the same with the dot-com bubble where people would throw their money at anything with ".com", but now everybody say "it's easy, just use AI", which is a very generic concept.

We have studied for centuries how humans can be fooled, how we take decisions, how we are biased, how bad we are at some tasks and then only a few decades of algorithm development and we're good to go? Automated driving will have better reflexes to avoid an accident, better skills to keep control of the car but it's still a car driving in an environment it doesn't understand at all.

This is how bad DNN can be while there's no doubt for humans :

20605


And this is how bad humans can be when there's no doubt for any basic algorithm :
20606
 

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And even if TSLA makes it without LIDAR, which would be awesome, the simple fact that Waymo has LIDAR data provides much more detailed information. Therefore, it may be considered less in terms of "driving miles", but more data in terms of precision and details.
LIDAR approach only works in areas with HD mapping. It's going to be difficult to scale, even if they get it to work.
 

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You know, TSLA is not alone in the self-driving vehicle industry.

We keep saying TSLA is gathering so much data for their self-driving cars, yet have you heard of Waymo taxis? That's from GOOG, not TSLA.
Tesla has over 3 Billion miles logged, and nicely labeled with user interventions.

 

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Competition news. TSLA down -16% pre-market and NKLA up +30% pre-market.

NKLA partners with GM to launch some real-world truck, not a futurist-looking Cybertruck like what TSLA did.


View attachment 20604

And if that's not enough, TSLA failed to enter S&P 500.


Badger starts at $60k, Cybertruck starts at $40k. I'm sure Tesla is quaking in its boots. Of course, these vehicles are addressing different markets. Cybertruck has polarizing style that will not appeal to everyone, while Badger still has somewhat unconventional styling (still flashes 'EV") but more like a traditional truck styling. 900hp is kind of irrelevant. We need to see real world performance.

Then there is a small matter of rapid charging infrastructure. All the Tesla road-trip naysayers would have a fit if they saw what non-Tesla owners have to put up with.
 

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LIDAR approach only works in areas with HD mapping. It's going to be difficult to scale, even if they get it to work.
No, a LIDAR is just plain better input. It gives information even our eyes can't get. And better input makes the self driving software easier to write.

A simply analogy is that you can drive with an eye closed. But it's a lot easier and safer to drive with both eyes open.
 

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Tesla down 35% from its high in a week. A moderately inflated price for Tesla would be $100 a share. That would leave them a $100B company, one of the largest in the world, and maybe a P/E of 50 based on 2021-2022 earnings - maybe. It would also be up 20% from the year start.

Probably it will never reach there, but you never know. I don't own any shares, but it is useful to follow hype stocks as a learning experience.
 

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No, a LIDAR is just plain better input. It gives information even our eyes can't get. And better input makes the self driving software easier to write.
I think of it as LIDAR being more precise

Optical provides far more information but it also can be obstructed. That's what the forward facing RADAR and surround ultrasound sensors are for..

Basically you could get closer to an obstacle using LIDAR. But unless your goal is stunt driving within a hair of obstacles what is the advantage
 

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No, a LIDAR is just plain better input. It gives information even our eyes can't get. And better input makes the self driving software easier to write.

A simply analogy is that you can drive with an eye closed. But it's a lot easier and safer to drive with both eyes open.
Either Lidar is unnecessary and you can do it with cameras, or you need to map the domain.
 

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DNN, ML, GA and AI are the hot keywords of the decade, but as I worked in that industry we know it's oversold. There's no intelligence, there's no learning, there's no abstracting, it's just an algorithm like many others and we've put fancy names to what has inspired those algorithms. Computers are good at one thing : computation. Computers are bad at one thing : understanding the world.
The vast majority of industries and business is just marketing flash rehashing buzz with little actual substance

Where is your self-driving car? Your disruptive online map database and payment systems? Your reusable rocket boosters, autonomous satellites and orbital refueling system?

Where is your neural linked computer?
 

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Some thoughts on the Nikola + GM partnership. Kind of what I felt. Interesting that Nikola is contributing zero technology to the truck, it is all GM tech for battery and hydrogen. I don't see how they will be able to compete... this honestly smacks of a pump and dump type situation by the CEO. Wonder if he is unloading his stake.

 

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FB, AMZN, GOOG aren't just selling ads... That's under-evaluating the power of the data they are gathering. Their are basically gathering your entire life. Ok, that sentence may seem too much. They are gathering your profile - your persona. They get to know your habits, your desires, your needs, your problems, your photos, your calendar schedule, your travels, your commute, your health, your heartbeat, your sleep habits, your sports & activities habits, everywhere you went and everything your bought, etc. more than what you even know of yourself. They get to influence your life. It's not just an "ads" thing.
How convenient of a coincidence. Netflix just released a documentary called "The Social Dilemma". I started a thread here : The Social Dilemma
 

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CEO is the Model S's lead engineer.
Musk disputes this.
Rawlinson didn’t design Model S. Prototype was done before he joined & he left us in the lurch just as things got tough, which was not cool. He did make some contributions to body/chassis engineering, but not to powertrain, battery, electronics or software.

ETA:
Lucid may have a decent product. It is no Tesla killer. It doesn't compete with Tesla's core product, which is Model 3/Y. Probably more competition for likes of Porsche Taycan, etc.
 

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You realize that Musk was twitting a non-sequitur. Unless there is some article where Rawlinson claimed to design the Model S, all that is claimed is that he was the lead engineer and worked on the Model S. That's not in dispute. Musk even acknowledged that he worked on it.
"Elon Musk, however, admitted that Rawlins did have a contribution towards the Model S' body/chassis engineering, but certainly not to the battery, powertrain, electronics, or even software."
[Fact Check] Elon Musk Clarifies that Rawlinson Did Not Design the Tesla Model S and Left When Things Got Tough

In fact this is what Rawlinson said in an interview:
"Additionally, during the interview, Rawlinson says his influence is the reason for the Model S’ success in the electric industry. “Model S was actually styled before I joined Tesla. My task was to retrospectively fit all the bits into it. It was a pretty interesting intellectual puzzle to design a car from the inside out,” he says."

So basically what Musk is saying is that a prototype was done, but one that probably isn't similar to the final form as Musk even states that Rawlinson contributed to the body/chassis engineering which would include as Rawlinson stated, how to fit all the pieces together effectively.

Maybe it was this interview that Musk took offense to?

"Rawlinson says that,after his first few days at the company, the fiery Tesla chief asked him what he thought of the Model S.

“Elon says, How bad is it?’ I say, Look, you’re going to have to cancel it,’” Rawlinson recalls. “He says, What! It’s that bad?’ It really is,’ I say.”

Rawlinson completely reconfigured that first Tesla prototype,and then some. The production model debuted in 2012. Eleven years after he joined Tesla, Rawlinson boasts that his name is still on more than 70 patents associated with the car."

 

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Looks like both of them have large egos and like to make inflated claims.

At this stage, several manufacturers have shown it's possible to build decent electric cars. And it's not too difficult to make a nice one if your budget is nearly unlimited, all the required pieces are fairly well known by now. Lucid has nothing special until they can show a great and affordable car. They have a long way to go to get there.
 

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Lucid has nothing special until they can show a great and affordable car. They have a long way to go to get there.
It is comparable to the Model S which is the market that it is targeting and cheaper than the Porche Taycan.

Yes, they don't start delivery until next spring, but given their deep pockets, I'm sure that there's no reason to doubt that delivery will happen.
 

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The more the merrier. Hope the Lucid makes it though ownership from one of the most repressive regimes on earth gives me pause (not that they do not already own a boatload of other big names).
 
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