[daveking]

Swine Flu is among us. It is not good for business.

From early reports here is the following effects on the Asia markets this morning.
1) Swine stocks took a beating (obvious)
2) Pharmaceuticals spike up
3) Aviation drops

I was not involved in the market during SARS. Anybody know the ramifications? Which companies was affected the most?

 

[daveking]

Market is going to tank if there is a death caused by Swine Flu in the US or Canada.

Swine Flu play
GSK - GlaxoSmithKline, flu vacine
MMM - 3M Makes the best N95 respiratory mask and everybody (infected or not) will be wearing one.
RHHBY Roche - Tamiflu vacine
JNJ - Jonhson & Johnson, Purell hand cleanser
BCRX - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Avian Flu
SVA - Sinovac Biotech Ltd, Avian Flu
NVAX - Novavax, biopharmaceutical

Of course, do your own due diligence with any investment.

 

[CanadianCapitalist]

I was not involved in the market during SARS. Anybody know the ramifications? Which companies was affected the most?

SARS impact on Toronto was terrible. If memory serves right, the biggest economic casualty was tourism. If this Swine flu turns out to be a severe epidemic, it will almost certainly have serious economic effects.

 

[FinancialJungle]

The media has a way to blow mini-crises into proportion. In 2003, SAR killed 50 people in Toronto, while common flu kill 1,000 a year on average in Canada. In the end, SAR turned out to be a non-event.

With due respect, phamas may be the obvious plays for Swine Flu, but my contrarian hunch tells me to invest in the casualities instead.

A risky play I'd consider is Mexican airport operator, Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sure (ASR.) Over the long-term, ASR should be a nice proxy to this developing nation's economy. The best time to invest, IMO, is when the stock is whipsawed by a recession and a flu outbreak. As I write this, ASR is down 12% yielding over 6%.

I emphasize risky!

 

[NormR]

Google Flu Map

The Markets on Flu

 

[mfd]

There was more fear of sars in the US then there was in the city of toronto. I guess the media needs something to report.

 

[daveking]

Google Flu Map

The Markets on Flu

WallStreetJournal has a good map also

 

[JayRoc]

While I realize that there are financial implications of an epidemic (the severity of which is still uncertain), I do find it quite disturbing to talk of chasing profits based on people dying.

 

[Financial Highway]

While I realize that there are financial implications of an epidemic (the severity of which is still uncertain), I do find it quite disturbing to talk of chasing profits based on people dying.

I understand what you mean, but there really isnt anything unethical about it.

here is my view on Swine Flu and Stock Market

 

[NormR]

The medical side of things ... flu fears

 

[ernestmanning922]

If the current swine flu epidemic progresses in a similar fashion.

 

[CanadianCapitalist]

In the Globe & Mail today:


Keep fear-o-meter on low for now

To reiterate, swine flu remains a travel-related infection that has affected relatively few people.

So far, the outbreak of swine flu news coverage has been far more severe than the outbreak of the disease itself. The good news is that there are stark differences in the response of politicians and public-health officials to swine flu, compared with SARS.

 

[Jon Chevreau]

I just blogged (and tweeted) on this, giving full credit to this forum for several of the ideas:

http://bit.ly/FgwPc

 

[CanadianCapitalist]

It doesn't look like the round-the-clock news coverage is panicking investors. S&P 500 is up since Monday and even airline stocks seem to be relatively flat.

 

[daveking]

I'm very bearish. The market is not following fundamentals. I believe there is manipulation from the big guys to calm everybody.

This morning we have lower GDP numbers out, Swine Flu, banks needing to raise capital and what do we get? A market rally. It just doesn't add up.

Obama switched from saying "Swine Flu" to "H1N1 Flu".

Does it really make a difference that the toddler from Texas died this morning from Swine Flu is Mexican? He died in the US with US medical health care.

I closed a few positions and switch to money market.

 

[CanadianCapitalist]

WHO has raised the pandemic alert one more notch, again today.

WHO raises pandemic alert

American health officials explained that it is a virus that has never been seen before, which means there is no background immunity in the population, and it is spreading from human to human. That means it has the potential to become a pandemic.

"At the start of an outbreak, you don't know what the course is going to look like," Dr. Besser said. "You don't know if this is a virus that is going to fizzle out in a couple of weeks or one that is going to become more or less severe in the diseases it causes."

 

[Financial Highway]

I'm very bearish. The market is not following fundamentals. I believe there is manipulation from the big guys to calm everybody.

This morning we have lower GDP numbers out, Swine Flu, banks needing to raise capital and what do we get? A market rally. It just doesn't add up.

Obama switched from saying "Swine Flu" to "H1N1 Flu".

Does it really make a difference that the toddler from Texas died this morning from Swine Flu is Mexican? He died in the US with US medical health care.

I closed a few positions and switch to money market.

When the market stops reacting to bad news, it's a good sign.

 

[Rickson9]

Swine Flu is among us. It is not good for business.

From early reports here is the following effects on the Asia markets this morning.
1) Swine stocks took a beating (obvious)
2) Pharmaceuticals spike up
3) Aviation drops

I was not involved in the market during SARS. Anybody know the ramifications? Which companies was affected the most?

This is a non-event for our portfolio.

 

[FinancialJungle]

Media coverage on Swine flu has dissipated. It's interesting to note that since the thread started, pharmas have trailed S&P500 by a marginal amount, while a Mexican airline operator (ASR) is beating the market by nearly 20%.

Even Air Canada is convincingly ahead of S&P500 before and after currency conversion.

Go figure.

 

[Alexandra]

It's interesting to note that since the thread started, pharmas are trailing S&P500 by a marginal amount, while a Mexican airline operator (ASR) is ahead of the market by nearly 20%.

I would sell those ASR stocks just before Autumn...that's when the experts predict that the swine flu will be back again.