Seems like banks (housing at play too obviously) and engineering and construction stocks such as snc got crushed with oil and haven't participated in the rally at all. seems to be the more compelling play to me.
Suncor (SU)
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Housing is a big drag on banks it would seem. Even more than oil, plus credit is about done it's expansion. Banks have come up a bit on oil, but you're right, there are other factors. I'm watching banks a bit, but I'm not biting yet.
Turning my eye to the smaller oil companies...if you're looking for some hidden value, gotta be careful though.
Turning my eye to the smaller oil companies...if you're looking for some hidden value, gotta be careful though.
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Earned an EPS of 6 cents in Q4, down 81% from prior year. If you annualize that, SU is trading at about 150x earnings. Even on a cashflow basis (1.03 per share for Q4), they are trading at 9x 4th quarter annualized numbers.
The only way the current valuation can be justified is if WTI returns to near normal levels sometime this year. There is very little oil price discount in effect right now.
The only way the current valuation can be justified is if WTI returns to near normal levels sometime this year. There is very little oil price discount in effect right now.
I agree, the big names have already priced in forward price increase of oil. The middle companies are pretty darn close if not there already. To find value (risk) one has to go lower in the food chain to the small caps. LRE (0.9 to 1.27) and PWT (yes I know, but it was trading at 1.8 and now 2.75) have been ridding much higher in recent days than other companies. Playing catch-up.
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SU is integrated, so they do not just do business in crude but also in chemicals and retail. A drop in crude prices makes those other LOBs more profitable. I think part of their staying power is due to a flight-to-quality artificially pumping up the price, but I also think there is a basis of quality there. I haven't looked at their reports to see how much money comes from where, so maybe I'm full of it.
I believe suncor has the lowest debt of all the companies also...
I bought suncor before the meltdown, im even again
Part of me wants to sell it to hide from oil, but the other part wants to at least gain some % ^_^ greed i guess
The other companies tanked... SU held steady... the other companies are going up 10% a day, whereas SU says at 2% it's all balancing out
I bought suncor before the meltdown, im even again
Part of me wants to sell it to hide from oil, but the other part wants to at least gain some % ^_^ greed i guess
The other companies tanked... SU held steady... the other companies are going up 10% a day, whereas SU says at 2% it's all balancing out
agree, su is where you go when you don't want to own oil but think that you have to own some oil
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Suncor now Buffetts largest energy holding.
and 3 of his top 4 are in the semi-crapper ... IBM, KO and AXP ... i am afraid he is showing his age
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He won't sell any of those 3. SU is likely his last big play. I can't wait to read his next letter to shareholders. It should be out soon.
KO is a coin toss, i wouldn't touch IBM and i don't know enough about AXP to comment
Suncor has a whopping 0.65% weight in BRK portfolio. I wouldn't read anything into it.
Also, it's very likely not Buffett's pick. According to Forbes article below, Suncor is Ted Weschler's position. Ted and Todd each manage a few billion $$$. They can make investments without consulting Buffett.
http://fortune.com/2014/10/14/buffett-proteges-ted-weschler-todd-combs/
Also, it's very likely not Buffett's pick. According to Forbes article below, Suncor is Ted Weschler's position. Ted and Todd each manage a few billion $$$. They can make investments without consulting Buffett.
http://fortune.com/2014/10/14/buffett-proteges-ted-weschler-todd-combs/
interesting i think it was easy to predict a NDP victory, but I didn't think of the effects on the market
NDP will have trouble attacking these guys, they probably don't want to stir the pot before the federal election later this year
if oil keeps going up, suncor will keep making monies
NDP will have trouble attacking these guys, they probably don't want to stir the pot before the federal election later this year
if oil keeps going up, suncor will keep making monies
Suncor closed $37 today. It traded at the same level in the second half of 2013, when WTI hovered around $100. Oil is 40% lower today. Eric Nuttall made a point that most oil majors are discounting a much higher oil price. An argument can be made they got well ahead of the oil price recovery. Or, in other words, they detached from the fundamentals. And that's before NDP majority.
http://www.nickldown.com/BNN034.html
above is a link to Eric Nuttalls top picks
not really great returns
he might as well be a technical analyst, and just flip coins on the show
Eric is known to say buy something this week, and sell it the next
his short positions won't be on these stocks forever
Will have to agree that most oil stocks have a recovery bound into their price already... but i'm not playing with much so i'd rather hold than jump in and out with fees
oil has been sneaking up and selling chocolate bars at petro canada has been keeping Suncor a float
above is a link to Eric Nuttalls top picks
not really great returns
he might as well be a technical analyst, and just flip coins on the show
Eric is known to say buy something this week, and sell it the next
his short positions won't be on these stocks forever
Will have to agree that most oil stocks have a recovery bound into their price already... but i'm not playing with much so i'd rather hold than jump in and out with fees
oil has been sneaking up
and selling chocolate bars at petro canada has been keeping Suncor a float141 - 160 of 229 Posts
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