Canadian Money Forum banner
1 - 7 of 7 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,071 Posts
CNQ has a premium likely because they are not making any mistakes. They also grew considerably through huge acquisitions bought at big discounts, whereas Suncor has been investing more capital like in Fort Hills at very high prices and it is still not fully operational and this is what 8 years later? So, Suncor is a little spotty and CNQ is nearly perfect. But Suncor hasn't taken on new projects so they really just need to straighten out their own house and the stock should move back up. Both are good investments but I think Suncor is going to double before CNQ.

Suncor is technically looking very good now and at 2-3 month highs in a seasonally weak period whereas the index is not quite breaking out yet.
CNQ and Suncor are quite different in some respects. Suncor has a big finger in refining and retail. They are Canada's version of Exxon or Chevron. CNQ is mainly a primary producer. CNQ has a large investment in the oil sands but it has a large investment in conventional oil and gas as well. Suncor less so in conventional oil and gas.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,071 Posts
most energy stocks will pay off all debt in 2022. In 2023 most will have no debt and will have 30 % plus FCF. and will be using that to buy 50 % back stocks and paying out the balance to shareholders . Can anyone explain the downside?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,071 Posts
The Chinese economy is slowing, and the US could enter a recession if there's a change of fortunes. So global demand could plummet.

The war could end, and oil markets could bounce back to normal. Maybe the price of oil could fall a lot in this kind of scenario.

The sharp increase in interest rates and QT could even trigger some kind of financial crisis. You might recall that there was a similar energy & commodities scare in 2007/2008 right before all markets crashed. Oil went through the roof, and speculators aggressively pushed oil contracts higher, right before everything crashed.

I'm not saying that will happen but there are clearly risks. Nothing is a sure thing. Commodities could weaken, and people buying now could be buying at the peak.m,.
yes but even if China slows with the drop of covid restrictions is a still a plus. Russia backs off? doesn't change the sanctions . Do energy companies increase production ? lot luck for that one. Does Trudeau back off from anti fossil fuel policies? do I have to answer that one.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,071 Posts
There is absolutely no point for oil companies to invest in renewables at this point, other than greenwashing.
Raw material prices are very high - and 'green' energy has massive demand for raw materials.
The electric network is not ready to take in the extra capacity from PV and wind power. More and more people who invested in small PV installations are now tackling that issue.
It is simply better to wait couple of years or a decade, when ROI will be much higher from such transition.

I want them to invest more into carbon capture, into electrolysis as a way to recover energy (from flaring, for example), etc. Investment into batteries, solar panels at this point in time simply makes no sense until the issues above are solved or better technology comes along
I would like to invest in modular nuclear power if governments and society would get off their rearends. May-be a swing to CPC and Republicans might show some real movement on this front. We are deceiving ourselves if we think we can make serious progress on reducing CO2 without a major reliance on nuclear.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,071 Posts
I am not suggesting Suncor or any of the oil sands producers actually own and operate modular nuclear power plants, but to be the anchor long term contracts so the plant could be financed by an enterprising entity. Same as is done for major pipeline projects. Someone somewhere, e.g. Brookfield Infrastructure, should see this as an opportunity
May-be a partnership with TC Energy, the large energy players, the Alberta government and someone like Brookfield ? Gates is a big believer in modular nuclear power . Get him involved ?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,071 Posts
Down 6.5% at the open
sentiment has certainly turned on the energy stocks . They start reporting earnings in early August. Even at current prices they are a giant cash flow machine. I guess the market anticipates a recession and a pile of demand destruction. I just spent a week driving through western Canada and a number of US states. I saw no shortage of vehicles and traffic. It seems that Canadians and Americans are just paying fuel prices which Europe has been paying for decades. The free ride is over.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,071 Posts
I still think energy is the best place to put your money for the next 1 to 2 years.
But is anyone concerned about a windfall tax by Lib/NDP alliance? They did it to the banks, surely they'll do it to energy companies which they hate.
Also, Biden could reimpose an oil export ban.
For this reason, I'm in BNO (Brent oil etf) and not in any other energy stocks right now.
I believe the world is headed to an energy shortage crisis due to chronic underinvestment due to the ESG scam. Left wing policies are not just foolish, they're dangerous.
If they want a big blowup in Alberta/SK these idiots are welcome to it. It would be a stupid policy. If you want lower prices create an environment that encourages investment and increased production. That is the only pathway to lower prices.
 
1 - 7 of 7 Posts
Top