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Lockdowns are only implemented because of the high rates of people being hospitalized and dying so to think that you will look at lockdown communities and not see high death rates is not likely to happen.

Just give these things some thought and you can probably work it out yourself.
 

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Also good to note the 14 day is not a magic number, it's not like a light switch. Protection grows over time and one breakdown I saw showed it can take up to 21 days.
This is great advice and it has been proven that protection continues to grow. One study showed real world improvement continuing up to 59 days after vaccination.

That said, most of the advice about how long it takes for the vaccine to begin to be effective comes from the trial data. That data looks like this from Pfizer:

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This is precisely the reason they say that it takes 14 days before their vaccine really starts to show efficacy. Now if you give this a little more thought and add a few other observations from our pandemic you may recall that when a person is infected with covid-19, it usually took about 4 to 6 days before they showed symptoms. Remember the above infections on the graph are all "symptomatic infections". Let's say the average took 5 days of incubation. If you started to see symptoms today or overnight, we can assume it would not be until the next day that you would be tested. So 6 days before you become a person on that chart.

What that means is that the majority of the infections recorded above, in the 1st 6 days were from people who were already infected when they received their 1st dose of vaccine. The people who were "not getting infected" in the 12th day after their 1st dose, was because the vaccine was obviously starting to protect them on day 6, plus or minus a day or two.

I don't want anyone to think that they are fully immune on day 6 because we know that you will never be fully immune, ever. That said, if you are the type to be losing sleep over getting a covid infection, I believe that after about day 6 or 7 you are probably starting to be fairly well protected. As said, every extra day you can avoid exposure to covid will see you with a higher level of protection but it definitely gets started within the 1st week.
 

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When do we expect “final” approval for these vaccinations? Ie. when will “emergency” approval move to “approved”. Months? Years? I have some doubts (fears?) about vaccinating my teens.
 

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Lockdowns are only implemented because of the high rates of people being hospitalized and dying so to think that you will look at lockdown communities and not see high death rates is not likely to happen.

Just give these things some thought and you can probably work it out yourself.
Well I think that's one way to look at it.
Not disagreeing, but some jurisdictions did pretty harsh lockdowns and restrictions. They didn't wait for high rates of deaths or hospitalizations.

I think different cultures reacted differently.

Canada and the US are not monocultures, there is very significant regional variation.
 

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When do we expect “final” approval for these vaccinations?
Pfizer is expected to file for approval this month in the USA. At this point it's just "paper work" and they are putting out as much vaccine as they can so no rush for them to do so. Not sure how long the process takes to get the final approval.
 

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I don't want anyone to think that they are fully immune on day 6 because we know that you will never be fully immune, ever. That said, if you are the type to be losing sleep over getting a covid infection, I believe that after about day 6 or 7 you are probably starting to be fairly well protected
I don't see why this is important. You wouldn't be losing any more sleep than before you were vaccinated. We put up with 15 months already, another week of caution is trivial.
 

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I don't see why this is important. You wouldn't be losing any more sleep than before you were vaccinated. We put up with 15 months already, another week of caution is trivial.
It is important to understand how it works. The benefit someone gets from that is up to them.
 

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It's more complicated than that.

Ontario had widely disparate outcomes despite similar measures.

There is no question that quarantines and limited interactions work
It is extremely unwise not to question things.

Luckily scientists and researchers agree. For that reason they have looked into effects of lockdowns (and other parameters) in 160 jurisdictions across entire world. They did find that government interventions have no significant effect on deaths and hospitalizations.

Fact is that government interventions don't work.
 

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It is extremely unwise not to question things.

Luckily scientists and researchers agree. For that reason they have looked into effects of lockdowns (and other parameters) in 160 jurisdictions across entire world. They did find that government interventions have no significant effect on deaths and hospitalizations.

Fact is that government interventions don't work.
I thought Japan and Taiwan had very effective government interventions that gave them relatively low deaths, despite their relatively high population density.

I'd be interested to read your study. I honestly don't see how they can claim there was no significant impact.
I think it is interesting that you didn't link to it.

I would suggest that government intervention was the primary reason these countries also did quite well.
 

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I thought Japan and Taiwan had very effective government interventions that gave them relatively low deaths, despite their relatively high population density.

I'd be interested to read your study. I honestly don't see how they can claim there was no significant impact.
I think it is interesting that you didn't link to it.

I would suggest that government intervention was the primary reason these countries also did quite well.

I did link it about 2-3 pages back. I will do it again for your convenience:

Covid-19 Mortality: A Matter of Vulnerability Among Nations Facing Limited Margins of Adaptation

There is couple more referenced in this article (hyperlinks sent to the studies)
States with strictest lockdowns ruined livelihoods — without saving lives
 

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I did link it about 2-3 pages back. I will do it again for your convenience:

Covid-19 Mortality: A Matter of Vulnerability Among Nations Facing Limited Margins of Adaptation

There is couple more referenced in this article (hyperlinks sent to the studies)
States with strictest lockdowns ruined livelihoods — without saving lives
Interesting studies, I just think that their claim is overly broad.

They acknowledge behavior change had an impact.
The problem is that the strictness of the order doesn't' seem to match the amount of behavior change.
Evaluating the effects of shelter-in-place policies during the COVID-19 pandemic << figure 2.
Also I think 14 days is too short.
\
I think the real takehome is that SIP didn't actually reduce mobility.

I still hold that countries with rigid restrictions, that were complied with, had lower death rates.

Compare Japan to Brazil.
 

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Interesting studies, I just think that their claim is overly broad.

They acknowledge behavior change had an impact.
The problem is that the strictness of the order doesn't' seem to match the amount of behavior change.
Evaluating the effects of shelter-in-place policies during the COVID-19 pandemic << figure 2.
Also I think 14 days is too short.
\
I think the real takehome is that SIP didn't actually reduce mobility.

I still hold that countries with rigid restrictions, that were complied with, had lower death rates.

Compare Japan to Brazil.
You can't compare Japan to Brazil. That is a terrible comparison. Look at the factors that actually had effect on hospitalizations and deaths - climate, obesity. Obesity was the single most important factor and an explanation why Asian countries were hit much less than Americas have - please, read the study.

And yes, there are underlying reasons why restrictions don't work. Those reasons haven't and actually can't be addressed though. It has been over 13 months of ineffective restrictions now and the effectiveness haven't improved, while all the damages associated have materialized.

If one would follow the science - government restrictions would be gone by last September. The problem is - in this situation politicians don't follow the science. They simply do politics.
They are and were too deep in to say sorry for ruining lives and economy - we ignored facts and made a mistake. They have to save face even at the cost of ruining more lives.

Science says open it up
 

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Luckily scientists and researchers agree. For that reason they have looked into effects of lockdowns (and other parameters) in 160 jurisdictions across entire world. They did find that government interventions have no significant effect on deaths and hospitalizations.

Fact is that government interventions don't work.
They certainly work well here!

I can watch the level of infection spread each time they loosen the restrictions here. These things are so difficult to draw conclusions from using high level data analysis. Also, lockdowns can mean many things and how much compliance are they getting from the public is another matter.

In the end it's simple logic, if people are forced apart the virus will have great difficulty spreading.
 

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They certainly work well here!

I can watch the level of infection spread each time they loosen the restrictions here. These things are so difficult to draw conclusions from using high level data analysis. Also, lockdowns can mean many things and how much compliance are they getting from the public is another matter.

In the end it's simple logic, if people are forced apart the virus will have great difficulty spreading.
But that's the very problem with society nowadays that are only increased by the pandemic, isn't it?
We get into our camps and then confirmation bias takes over, fed by the media, algorithms in social media, etc.
Your logic makes sense, assuming the spread is done by droplets (it turned out it isn't) and that retention of the virus in the air and surfaces is short (it isn't). For those very reasons I was pro-lockdowns in february- may as well. only then actual scientific studies that go beyond my self-admitted bias showed that my position was wrong. So shouldn't we revisit our predetermined views when faced with scientific evidence?

You are talking about anecdotes heavily influenced by confirmation bias. This doesn't hold up to any kind of scrutiny.
For this very reason we have scientific, peer reviewed studies. To remove and control biases as much as possible.
And those scientific, peer reviewed studies show that government restrictions don't work.
 

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You can't compare Japan to Brazil.
I did compare them.
Japan had lockdowns, Brazil encouraged public gatherings.
Japan had very very few cases, Brazil is a [email protected]#show.

Science says open it up
Science has said that behaviour change alters the spread of COVID19.
Government restrictions can be one aspect of this, for example restrictions on international travel is a forced behaviour change.

I'm not going to debate if they make sense now, as that cost benefit varies by situation.
Myself I think in some cases the restrictions were too light, and in others they were too strong.
Some restrictions were effective, some weren't, some where complied with, some were not.

I think that masks likely did reduce some hospitalizations, are you actually suggesting that wearing a mask in public has no effect?
There is no question in my mind that if you close international travel, you do not bring more cases and new variants into a country. The data supports this.

Really these studies are in my opinion a partial look at the situation, and the conclusion that "restrictions don't work" is a stretch.
 

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Your logic makes sense, assuming the spread is done by droplets (it turned out it isn't) and that retention of the virus in the air and surfaces is short (it isn't).
Care to back this up with current studies?

Currently prolonged exposure indoors is by far the #1 cause for transmission.

You are talking about anecdotes heavily influenced by confirmation bias. This doesn't hold up to any kind of scrutiny.
For this very reason we have scientific, peer reviewed studies. To remove and control biases as much as possible.
And those scientific, peer reviewed studies show that government restrictions don't work.
It's funny how so many social media people hook onto "confirmation bias" like nobody in the world anymore can be objective. And please feel free to show "in depth" peer reviewed studies on restrictions as your previous links don't cover that.
 

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Brazil has over 10x higher obesity rate than Japan. You choose to ignore a factor that has single highest influence on deaths and hospitalizations while focusing on a factor that scientific research shows has no effect.

Look, I am not here to convince you at all. Clearly you are in one corner.
I am simply providing scientific facts. Why do I do that? Because I believe that scientists from France, Switzerland, Czech Republic who wrote and reviewed the paper are smarter than I am.
If you believe you are smarter than them and choose that your opinion has higher value than facts, then go ahead
 

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You can't compare Japan to Brazil. That is a terrible comparison. Look at the factors that actually had effect on hospitalizations and deaths - climate, obesity. Obesity was the single most important factor and an explanation why Asian countries were hit much less than Americas have - please, read the study.

And yes, there are underlying reasons why restrictions don't work. Those reasons haven't and actually can't be addressed though. It has been over 13 months of ineffective restrictions now and the effectiveness haven't improved, while all the damages associated have materialized.
I'll throw another comparison, age. We know that age as big factor a factor as obesity. So average age in Japan: 48.4 years, Brazil: 33.5 years.

The reason why ineffective restrictions haven't worked in Canada and the US is precisely because they weren't really restrictions. You should look at New Zealand and Australia to see how they lockdown when they have an outbreak. You can leave out the whole, but they're an island argument. The point is that they had tough restrictions. 3 days hotel quarantine in Canada? 14 days in New Zealand and Australia. Even without vaccinations they are able to handle it well, by ensuring that you limit spread of covid.

Not too mention that in Canada we're really reactive instead of proactive... case numbers going down? Open things up. Case numbers going up? Lock things down. Then repeat when case numbers go down. The sensible thing would be to keep things locked down until the case numbers are controlled for at least a few months or so. Instead, we're ping-ponging back and forth every few weeks, so obviously these measures aren't working because we're too impatient to actually wait until things get sorted out..
 

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Brazil has over 10x higher obesity rate than Japan. You choose to ignore a factor that has single highest influence on deaths and hospitalizations while focusing on a factor that scientific research shows has no effect.

Look, I am not here to convince you at all. Clearly you are in one corner.
I am simply providing scientific facts. Why do I do that? Because I believe that scientists from France, Switzerland, Czech Republic who wrote and reviewed the paper are smarter than I am.
If you believe you are smarter than them and choose that your opinion has higher value than facts, then go ahead
So are you saying thin people don't catch COVID?

The death rate in Japan was 2.7 per million
Brazil 1900 per million.

I'd suggest that the reason the death rate is 700 times lower in Japan, is at least in part, due government restrictions.
Specifically, travel restrictions and gathering restrictions.

I am not questioning the study itself.
I can accept that the government restrictions they studied did not appear to have a significant impact.

I am disputing the overly broad generalization that government restrictions have no effect.
Are you really willing to say that preventing COVID positive people from entering the country "has no effect"? Is that REALLY your opinion?
 

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So are you saying thin people don't catch COVID?

The death rate in Japan was 2.7 per million
Brazil 1900 per million.

I'd suggest that the reason the death rate is 700 times lower in Japan, is at least in part, due government restrictions.
Specifically, travel restrictions and gathering restrictions.

I am not questioning the study itself.
I can accept that the government restrictions they studied did not appear to have a significant impact.

I am disputing the overly broad generalization that government restrictions have no effect.
Are you really willing to say that preventing COVID positive people from entering the country "has no effect"? Is that REALLY your opinion?
Sorry, but you lost any kind of credibility with this post. Death rate in Japan is 83/1mln, which means death rate in Brazil is about 20 times higher, not 700. Also, ICU numbers in Brazil are just 8 times higher than in Japan. Study looks at both.

Nowhere am I saying that thin people don't catch COVID. Please, show me that quote?
They catch it, they are just significantly less likely to have symptoms, end up in a hospital, or die.

And to previous poster: you pick and choose your data. That's why it doesn't hold up to any kind of scrutiny.
Peer-reviewed study that was linked looks at 160 different Jurisdictions. Not 3-4 like you choose to try to make your point. Anyway, will take peer reviewed study from acclaimed scientists that look at 160 different jurisdictions over anonymous poster picking 3-4 data points to prove his point. And am surprised that anyone with their right mind would do differently.

And I am not presenting my opinion here. I am presenting FACTS from peer-reviewed study
 
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