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The stock market likes to anticipate events. Notice that the crash began in February when experts were just beginning to think the corona virus might be serious.The bottom came in early March when doom and gloom was all around. Now all the talk is when the quarantine will be lifted or at least eased. I don't believe the world is ending - I think this thing will blow over eventually and the world go back to normal and the stock market reflects this.
A chart of the DJI is a digital recording of the mood of the masses


For the really paranoid, instead of getting out, why not implement stop losses? Then you could actually make money and be somewhat protected if your fears of a crash come true.
For emotion to be in harmony with trading do the opposite of the masses only play the short side. When optimism is high people buy when fear is high people sell. To make emotion In harmony with investing buy puts when optimism is high sell your puts when fear in the streets. By only playing short side your buying when everyone else is buying & selling when everyone else is selling only thing is your buying & selling puts.
 

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The FANGS are holding up the entire market.... the SP500 has like 300 zombie co's.... another 100 that are useless and 75 that are mediocre... you do the math.... I have no idea how this market is where it is....

Apparently today Scotia announced a 40% loss in projected profits.... now, that might not seem bad but the real losses / impact wont surface till Q3 after all the skipped payments are defaulted on..... No thanks.... right now it is speculators and the Fed buying stocks... lots of money on the side lines... Ill wait....
 

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You realize Apple could buy a majority of the remaining market with its free cash? There’s a reason they are holding up the market
 

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The banks made some strong predictions about future loan losses. They are not solely based on Q1 performance, that is a mistake. They are balancing scenarios out for the next year or more. So their projections are already in for Q2 and Q3. And the banks are willing to be aggressive to get the bad news out there quickly.

Cdn banks are already moving off their massive discounts. They are institutionalized money making machines. I made 5 buys over the last 6-7 weeks: BMO @ $63, BNS @ 50, CM @ $77, RY @ 87, TD @ $54. And MFC @ $16. Some of these at dividend yields above 7%. Just like in 2008-09, when none of them cut dividends, other than MFC which now actually has the lowest payout ratio of all of those listed, and yields soared above 8% and in some cases 10%.

And these are some of the lowest returns I've had in the last few months. I believe they are going to move up ahead of the market as the multiples catch up. The bank index is clearly at a post-COVID-19 high, which is very positive.
 

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I think that the Ruling Class are preparing for the collapse of empire.
When the Federal Reserve is purchasing stocks, they are actually purchasing companies and in doing so all public owned companies are being privatized.

Central banking is a privately owned outfit. It is not owned by governments.

As it is, the Federal Reserve has nationalized the banking system.
 

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Damn I am close to breaking my investing plan. There seems to be such little upside to the market right now with a massive downside.

It really feels like selling everything seems like at worst a 'meh choice' and at best a genius move.

Any one else struggling with this?
I personally like to have control when it comes to my money, and therefore, I am not a fan of the stock market. Money is supposed to provide peace of mind and security. I find that the stock market, by and large, works against that goal. Sure people make great gains in the market, but then they suffer great losses. Smoke. Mirrors. Smoke. Mirrors.

We are living in an age of disrupters. Who is to say that those safe blue chips are not slowly becoming dinosaurs? Maybe your portfolio will not bounce back anytime soon. When it comes to stock market investors, I see a whole lot of chicken little's and very few Warren Buffets. Hm. Interesting, isn't it?
 

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There is this perception that Buffett runs a 'stock portfolio' but that's really not how it works. Buffett and Munger make all the really big capital allocation decisions. I'm sure he's involved with the stocks, sometimes.

But they have a full time manager, a younger man I believe, who is in charge of the equity portfolio. And remember that their stock portfolio is only a small part of Berkshire overall. The biggest part of BRK are the insurance business and the various other fully owned & controled businesses.

As far as market investments, they also have a significant bond portfolio. 'Stock picks' are just one part of their big picture, and Buffett is not sitting there all day picking stocks.

In fact, you have to go back to his early years to really get Buffet's stock picking. And he was a very speculative investor, making some enormous, lopsided (non diversified) positions on things that were probably very high risk. He didn't get rich by buying stable old mature stocks.
 

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How do you make money in the stock market"

Good decisions!

How do you make good decisions?

Experience!

How do you get experience?

Bad decisions!

It's normal to be scared when things go wrong. That is where experience comes in. This sort of thing has happened before, some kind of panic or bear market is a normal part of the game. The market will recover, it always has. I don't expect it to go down to zero and stay there. Eventually you learn to plan for it, take it in stride and roll with it. Whether you do that by waiting it out, or bailing at the first sign of trouble, is up to you. But dumping everything when it is down 30% or 40% is almost always a bad idea. At that point you might as well sit tight.
 

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The stock market is a total fabrication.

Plunge Protection

The Federal Reserve has been manipulating stock prices for an eternity.

Every single market component has been manipulated. (Forex, Precious Metals, Libor Rates to mention just a few)

Most importantly .....The rating agencies, the crux of the capitalist system have proven to be fraudulent.

I have studied this issue for 20 years or more. I have a database with all the instances.

The American Capitalist System is a complete fraud.
 

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The divergence with the economy going down & the stock market going up is bigger now then when the DJI made its all time high. The divergence lead to a record setting speed of decline. Will be interesting to see what happens to this one.
 

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The stock market is a total fabrication.

Plunge Protection

The Federal Reserve has been manipulating stock prices for an eternity.

Every single market component has been manipulated. (Forex, Precious Metals, Libor Rates to mention just a few)

Most importantly .....The rating agencies, the crux of the capitalist system have proven to be fraudulent.

I have studied this issue for 20 years or more. I have a database with all the instances.

The American Capitalist System is a complete fraud.
You said it. This is why the rational or fundamental approach no longer works. Markets no longer react to reality the way they used to. And there is no way to know for sure what the manipulators are doing until afterwards, sometimes long afterwards. This is why I prefer the technical approach. You can dissemble the manipulation but you can't dissemble the effects of manipulation.
 

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Damn I am close to breaking my investing plan. There seems to be such little upside to the market right now with a massive downside.

It really feels like selling everything seems like at worst a 'meh choice' and at best a genius move.

Any one else struggling with this?
yup!
my fear is that getting to a 'new normal' post-pandemic world could be disastrous in ways that presidents, prime ministers, other politicians, the stock market,, and yes, even CMF-ers haven't even contemplated yet...
 
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