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Discussion Starter #1
Damn I am close to breaking my investing plan. There seems to be such little upside to the market right now with a massive downside.

It really feels like selling everything seems like at worst a 'meh choice' and at best a genius move.

Any one else struggling with this?
 

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I agree with Cainvest. I don't know what the market is going to do, but I do know it's better to buy low and sell high than the reverse. Are prices right now high or low? Well they are lower than they were. Where they will be next year or 10 years from now, who knows?
I got panicked out of buying in January and started buying in March, so far am up for the year.
 

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My view is it is going to be a rather bumpy ride through at least the end of 2020, and more likely most of 2021, depending on the size of Wave #2, and maybe Wave #3. There is no way of knowing how and when the saw tooth will resolve itself, but by the time one recognizes the planets have lined up, markets will already be substantially higher. I simply can't guess any better than random chance.....so as a retiree, I am doing and continue to do nothing.

Like Cainvest, anyone into long term accumulation mode should be buying during this 'suppressed' period. This is a 10-20-30 year journey.
 

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Damn I am close to breaking my investing plan. There seems to be such little upside to the market right now with a massive downside.

It really feels like selling everything seems like at worst a 'meh choice' and at best a genius move.

Any one else struggling with this?
Depends on just where you are in life. Some ideas from someone who is a rank amateur at this ;)

For someone in retirement with a substantial nest egg, maybe they could sell everything, put proceeds in GICs or similar and just draw down their savings while hoping that the GIC yield will cover inflation. Depending on balance between registered and unregistered, if retiree needed, say, $50k pa plus CPP/OAS with very little taxation, they could draw $50k pa for 20 years if proceeds of sale was $1Million.

A younger family saving for a home, might also think about cutting their losses. No doubt there are also other personal situations where selling might make sense. Markets at the moment seem higher to me right now than circumstances dictate.

For a younger person, it might be an idea to eliminate any index type equity etfs like XIU/XIC that give you the good with the bad. Buy a dozen or more blue chip stocks from various sectors that will hopefully pay dividends while you wait. Eventually markets should come back, but it could be 5 or 10 years before we get back to where we were 3 or 4 months ago.

Personally, I am in the retired category. I started to sell off our more risky and more complex holdings early this year (for health reasons). That turned out to be fortunate. After the initial crash, I did more weeding. I used the cash to buy a series of bonds and gics with very short to medium term maturity. Cash just in case dividends were cut. The rest, I used to buy a mix of perpetual and rate-reset preferreds. They were basically on-sale! Some still are. Yields in the 5-7% range, some perpetually.

So, no panic selling, just de-risking.
 

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Nah, I won't try to talk you down. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Sell all. Those advising contra are just misery-loves-company types. Can I get a cheap deal on your truck?
 

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Nah, I won't try to talk you down. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Sell all. Those advising contra are just misery-loves-company types.
;)
Potato69, don't listen to Mukhang pera, he's just trying to get on the other side of your trades. I thought of going that route myself, but decided to take the high road.

ltr
 

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There seems to be such little upside to the market right now with a massive downside
On what basis do you say that? Even professionals have no idea which way the market is headed. Why are you so certain there is 'little upside'? Have you considered the possibility that the Federal Reserve could print $10 trillion of new money in the next couple years, making stocks soar to new heights? It absolutely could happen.

For context: I'm probably one of the more bearish people on this board. I don't particularly like stocks.. and I'm not selling anything. And yes, I'm aware that I could see my stocks plummet by 50% to 70%. I hope they don't, but it's always possible.

First, there's no way to know if stocks are going up or down from here. They could go either way! This whole scare could turn out to be overblown... we don't know. Yes, stocks could go down a lot still. But they could also go up on a sooner-than-expected recovery and normalization. They could go up on massive inflation and currency devaluation. There's no way to know what's coming in stocks.

More importantly, one has to stick with existing plans. The whole point of plans is because of situations like we have today!! This is the whole point of asset allocation, couch potato, investment policy statement. You can't throw away plans because something scary came up. What I've learned in 20 years of investing is that something scary or weird always comes up.

Since I started investing, I've experienced a brutal tech crash, then 9/11 terrorist attacks, endless terrorism paranoia and middle east wars, then the 2008 crash which they say 'nearly destroyed the whole financial system'. This stuff happens all the time - and it will keep happening!! Just give it 5 or 10 years.

If you feel uncertain about your plan, maybe you should revisit your plan and adjust the plan. Make sure it's conservative enough for your taste; for example, I'm 30% in stocks. But I think it's really important to use a plan as a framework and stick with the plan.
 

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Since I started investing, I've experienced a brutal tech crash, then 9/11 terrorist attacks, endless terrorism paranoia and middle east wars, then the 2008 crash which they say 'nearly destroyed the whole financial system'. This stuff happens all the time - and it will keep happening!! Just give it 5 or 10 years.
Yep, and us old guys can come up with even more situations than James has already mentioned where everyone, including the financial media would have you believe that "it's different this time!".

OK, maybe it is different this time, just as it was every other time through history (2008 being the worst in my experience), but this time it's a very specific reason, and if they come up with a vaccine, then that's the end of it - case closed..

Don't under-estimate the power of money, especially in USA and how it can make things happen. I am confident they will create a vaccine and this will be over. Others may disagree. We'll see who's right.

ltr
 

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Generally, I would say keep an emergency fund, maintain your asset allocation, and stay the course.....

Nonetheless, if you can reach your financial objectives by investing in safe assets, then you did not need stocks to begin with and you have the option of dumping them any time. Just don't expect that you can get a better price in the future; that may or may not happen.
 

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Was listening to a podcast recently regarding the markets & apparently a record number of new investments accounts are being opened in the US.
 

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Best way to invest, or at least the most common , is to lock in your losses as often as possible. Don’t follow my lead, I made tuition for my kids in a couple of weeks by stock picking my buy and hold Strategy, I’ve got the Worst strategy according to the talking heads. So sell, sell, sell, until you're out of money.
 

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Very good points by all !

I sold all equities (little while back) as I think we are in a bear market rally - I see lots of turbulence and think it will end around Q3.

the markets fundamentals are zippo and i struggle to wrap my head around current valuations.

yes, I will miss the rest of this rally... but i am up this year 6.2% ytd and if I dont face another drop head on ill look at buying in on the next drop.

I believe more in capital preservation than capital appreciation - and the coming risks are notable....

yes not having equities is against my plan but we are in a deflationary market and i want to see this happen from the sidelines & i think speculators are rampant, not long term investors.

if the music stops do you got a chair ?
 

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On what basis do you say that? Even professionals have no idea which way the market is headed. Why are you so certain there is 'little upside'? Have you considered the possibility that the Federal Reserve could print $10 trillion of new money in the next couple years, making stocks soar to new heights? It absolutely could happen.
Amateurs play possibilities professionals play probabilities.
 

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The stock market likes to anticipate events. Notice that the crash began in February when experts were just beginning to think the corona virus might be serious.The bottom came in early March when doom and gloom was all around. Now all the talk is when the quarantine will be lifted or at least eased. I don't believe the world is ending - I think this thing will blow over eventually and the world go back to normal and the stock market reflects this.
 

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For the really paranoid, instead of getting out, why not implement stop losses? Then you could actually make money and be somewhat protected if your fears of a crash come true.
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Thanks for the feedback everyone. Seems like the market though I actually did sell everything yesterday - hence the big bump today.

Only thing I went out of my investing plan was to buy some REITS a couple weeks back. Up 4% so far so I guess that's good. It's only a small part of my full allocation. I was just playing a little bit. That $$$ should have gone to my bonds allocations and although REITS are not a full replacement for bonds at least they're not equities.
 
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