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Discussion Starter #1
Your last WAKE UP call I am posting since the market should be telling you what to do.

The largest stock bubble ever is probably finished. Why be part of the herd & have a large percentage over 2% of your money on the table to be part of the herd to fit in with hope for higher prices. This market is headed well below the 2008 lows by 2022 @ the very latest.

Time is running out to get your act together & get out of the markets. The bear rallies will be strong, technical indictors will be screaming buy all the way to the bottom in the next few years well your account drops by + 80%

For those of you that self sabatoge enjoy the journey
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Eder you will want to ride it alone & keep your mouth shut or your friends & family will want to put you in a mental home. @ the bottom no one will want to hear about the stock market for years
 

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I am up over 200% since 2009 not including dividends my holdings now are for dividend income in the future .I could sell it all and take profits but see no point when I would want to own the same stock in 1 ,5 or 10 years .I am going to borrow $200,000 in next 30 days assuming the interest rates drop to 2% on a 5 year mortgage so I can write off the interest and put 10k a month in non registered accounts for next 20 months ,Call me crazy but I have about $x,xxx,xxx sitting in USD cash in my business that we already paid the taxes on.I lost 42% in 2008 and did not blink when my net worth was far less than today.Buy stocks that you think will be around in 50 years and people will still need.
 

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I am up over 200% since 2009 not including dividends my holdings now are for dividend income in the future .I could sell it all and take profits but see no point when I would want to own the same stock in 1 ,5 or 10 years .I am going to borrow $200,000 in next 30 days assuming the interest rates drop to 2% on a 5 year mortgage so I can write off the interest and put 10k a month in non registered accounts for next 20 months ,Call me crazy but I have about $x,xxx,xxx sitting in USD cash in my business that we already paid the taxes on.I lost 42% in 2008 and did not blink when my net worth was far less than today.Buy stocks that you think will be around in 50 years and people will still need.
Ok, these numbers are serious! Was yesterday bottom you think?
 

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lonewolf you are correct but tardy. Your warning would have meant something a month ago but, I must point out the Dow recovered 2000 points or 10% today (yesterday's close to today's close). I'm not saying the crisis is over but after a 30% drop the worst must be behind us.
 

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lonewolf you are correct but tardy. Your warning would have meant something a month ago but, I must point out the Dow recovered 2000 points or 10% today (yesterday's close to today's close). I'm not saying the crisis is over but after a 30% drop the worst must be behind us.
If we have anything like what Italy has, look out below. 30 day quarantine, cannot leave except for groceries, drugs or work and work requires a stamped note from minister of interior. Police are checking very carefully as well
 

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Discussion Starter #10
I am up over 200% since 2009 not including dividends my holdings now are for dividend income in the future .I could sell it all and take profits but see no point when I would want to own the same stock in 1 ,5 or 10 years .I am going to borrow $200,000 in next 30 days assuming the interest rates drop to 2% on a 5 year mortgage so I can write off the interest and put 10k a month in non registered accounts for next 20 months ,Call me crazy but I have about $x,xxx,xxx sitting in USD cash in my business that we already paid the taxes on.I lost 42% in 2008 and did not blink when my net worth was far less than today.Buy stocks that you think will be around in 50 years and people will still need.
That is not the correct way to use leverage. Instead less money should be put on the table i.e., $10,000 with buy & hold in the S&P from Oct 1928 - Oct 2015 grew to 19 million dollars.

$10,000 invested in a leveraged 3x S&P when S&P was above its 200 day moving averaged using the same time period produced 9 trillion dollars with 1% MER. The Buy & hold averaged 9.1% annual return the 3 X leveraged with 200 day moving average averaged 26.87% annual with less draw down.

Over 50 year period $1.00 @ 26.8% grows to 143,206.48

Over 50 year period 1839.61 @ 9.1% grows to 143,206.68

1839 times more money is needed to be put on the table to get the same results over 50 year period.

The safe way to play is put 1800 times less money on the table & use leveraged ETF

Data source 2016 Dow award paper if memory correct using leverage for the long run.
 

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Discussion Starter #11 (Edited)
lonewolf you are correct but tardy. Your warning would have meant something a month ago but, I must point out the Dow recovered 2000 points or 10% today (yesterday's close to today's close). I'm not saying the crisis is over but after a 30% drop the worst must be behind us.
I did start a thread titled its not to late to change your plan no stocks no bonds.

Why I brought up the self sabatoge was because some very astute CMF posters knew something was not right with the market i.e., J4B had started a thread regarding this cant remember the title of it just as the market was topping out. Yet when everything was screaming danger stuck to the asset plan which made me ask the question regarding self sabatoge to take comfort in the herd.

Rusty your right the market was down 20% though I do think the odds are high in a few years that we could be down +80% plus from these levels. Selling @ these levels you will make out like a bandit compared to almost everyone.

The move down could have been corrective close to 2 equal legs down with new highs coming though playing is high risk esp if most of your money is on the table. We probably will know Monday if the rally forms 5 up or 3 up from the lows.

Goldman could have painted the tape on Thursdays decline the market turned right on their price projection they recently released. The strong rally into the close on a Friday made the bears short cover. So now the market is set up to crash with few shorting it.

Bond recently were paying almost nothing. Being long bond funds without being hedged is crazy. The up side is limited with huge potential risk.
 

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Rusty your right the market was down 20% though I do think the odds are high in a few years that we could be down +80% plus from these levels. Selling @ these levels you will make out like a bandit compared to almost everyone.
If the markets are down 80% from the current levels in a few years there will be more serious things to worry about than money.
 

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I think we are looking at weeks or at most months before the market recovery starts and would be surprised if the total drop was 50%. The coronavirus is bad but it is not the black plague, the markets are over reacting. But we are at the end of an 11 year bull market, it was bound to end some time, the coronavirus is just the excuse or trigger. In the mean time keep in mind I don't know what I am talking about, the market will tell you when the crisis is over.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
One of my systems will use the decennial pattern which I have talked about in previous posts that beat the market by 44.9 times (google Millar decennial pattern) with no leverage & use the system with 3x leverage ETF. For more info on using 3x leverage ETFs google Dow awards I think it is the 2016 dow winner. Though all the Dow award papers should be read they might help you develop a method or make your method better. Though remember to make the system fit your personality.
 

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"by 44.9 times"...LOVE those EXACT statistics....never say "by about 45 times" ...sounds SO unscientific...lol
sorry wolf, one of my (many) pet peeves ...er, ah, I mean peeve's....

BTW, FWIW ..I'm thinking of SELLING EVERYTHING ...& heading for them thar hills!!!
 

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Friday's up move may be the start of a 50% retracement. If it is that would take the Dow to a little over 25000 before it plunges again, lower than it already has.
 

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I dont think Corona will destroy us, will it have impact - yes; more impact ? Yes. I think markets could go lower, maybe another 10-15% but that is all based on what the Fed / central banks do this week and next.....

This year will have virtually no profit and I think central banks will need to support markets, maybe I should say not allow the economy to fail.

There are lots, I mean lots of Canadians and Americans that are <$400 / month away from insolvency. So, there needs to be action to keep the lower middle class and lower class elements of society from becoming insolvent during a health crisis. This will inadvertently provide wide stimulus and the monetary lifeblood they need to survive. The wide part of the stimulus will in turn support markets...

Currently, I am sticking to my asset allocations and will consider a rebalance if things take another 10%+ drop.
 
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