Another TA indicator is when @londoncalling posts a couple of purchases in the What are you buying thread. I guess we'll see what happens. The market is expensive. Some stock prices are ridiculous and the general sentiment is that we are in a bubble. I even posted elsewhere about placing some stops to protect myself during the recent run up. My limited experience with market crashes is that they don't happen when expect them. I've been expecting a correction for a while and I think a 10% drop would takesome exuberance out of the market.

 

VIX probably directly correlated with when Trump goes off the rails and spouts threats more than usual.

 

the fall sales event might just have started!!

If you have a strong conviction about this, you might want to check out TAIL, which holds index puts and keeps rolling them over. It responds to the VIX and recently started to rise.

Not my cup of tea personally, and I think it's impossible to time the market, but for those who can successfully time markets, TAIL and VXX may be handy.

 

Good chart. The VIX usually bounces around a few %, but when it starts to jump ~ 25% like it did on Friday and another day this week it usually signals a drop in the market like your chart shows.

The VIX was spiking again after China added export tariffs to the rare earth minerals and Trump was threatening a tariff reaction on Nov1 . But then he tweeted that the sides will likely work something out, he doesn't want to hurt China.

I dont think he wants to cause another market crash like back in April so the market may go down a little more but I think it is more likely to move sideways for awhile , you just never know though w him though.

 

Some regional US banks had trouble w loan losses was pulling the market down yesterday and today too.

 

I don't expect that much buying of the S&P today from the crypto holders. Those who had $ to spend already used it all buying the flash-crash dip that happened on Friday. The others who were over-leveraged, took massive losses and have no cash left to buy anything. Already this morning, we saw many whales lining up to sell AAVE as many still owe debts from Friday's historic crash. It also doesn't help that Justin Sun just removed a lot of liquidity.

With many still shell-shocked and worried of what other tweet may hit the wires this weekend, it's the perfect storm.

On the flip side, the Fear Gauge is already at 'Maximum/extreme'. There isn't any worse category on the list to fall down into, so what else are people waiting for? I suppose if you've already caught too many falling knives...then it's understandable to just remain shell-shocked. I've seen the vix spike much higher than where we're at now, so good luck to everyone. I also know people who love to short the Vix, but there's been a lot of people who blew up doing that as well...

I definitely would love to load up on some discounted AAVE while the big players are forced to sell, but I already did my dip buying since last weekend and need to keep some dry powder around for tax gains, TFSA deposits, etc...

 

On the flip side, the Fear Gauge is already at 'Maximum/extreme'. There isn't any worse category on the list to fall down into, so what else are people waiting for?

It can always get worse.

Myself I'm staying highly invested, I think there are still a lot of good companies.
I'm think about pulling some money off the table, but I think the politics are just too volitile, also some of my big winners, (Micron - MU) I'm not sure that they can't actually sustain these valuations.

 

Ahh, I almost forgot. I have to have a bunch of dividends sitting around in my main RRSP after the last few months. I better start spending it this morning, before Murphy's Law forces the market to go into a melt-up if I get greedy waiting for bigger discounts.

 

It can always get worse.

Indeed... and that's what the majority believe at the bottom when in capitulation, hence they have capitulated.

The main risk though, is how fast the recoveries are nowadays. Even during both recoveries in April, the false one from the rumour that happened at the first rally, and the legitimate rally. I was watching both in real-time, and the main recovery is now literally done in a time frame of minutes only. You need to be THAT FAST when trying to time it... I literally am kicking myself for not just assigning hot-keys for buy buy buy! I lost many thousands in just the small time window due to manually trying to input all my orders.

I never fancied myself trying this setup, as I certainly never wanted to join the band of degenerate day-traders. But it's getting that way now if someone is trying to really time bottoms (which is hard enough as it is).

 

...
You need to be THAT FAST when trying to time it...
...
But it's getting that way now if someone is trying to really time bottoms (which is hard enough as it is).

It's impossible to win, or even do well in that game, so I don't play it.

I invest in things that look like they will return a profit to me as they stand today.
Excellent business at a good price.

I can only look into a few companies at a time, I take their position today and see if it's interesting, if they're close I'll look again later.

I don't have a stack of several dozen companies with a "if they drop to $x they're worth buying".

Often if a company drops significantly enough to change the valuation, there is other news.

 

One advantage of having all your eggs in Global ETF such a XEQT or VEQT is that one does not suffer from multiple financial whiplash when the market is volatile.

 

I have a watchlist that is too big. At any given time I have a few stocks on my buy list. What often ends up happening is my buy list takes my focus and some of the names on my watch list that were previously on my buy list enter buy territory but I have not had time to do a current review.

 

I have a few Watchlists. One contains all current holdings (about 25? including ETFs) and that is generated by the brokerage and sent to me via email at the end of each trading day. That way, no matter where I am at, I can scan the Watchlist in my email to see what was Green or Red that day and by how much, absolute and percentage. I spend no more than about 20 seconds looking at it at my leisure (often not at all) and then I delete it.

The other Watchlist occasionally contains 2-5 entries of stocks (or ETFs occasionally) that I might be interested in owning as a 'swap' from something I already own at the right price. Being in decumulation, I have no new net funds to invest, so buying anything new necessitates the sale of something else - I intentionally spend ALL recurring investment income every year.

I have set up no Alerts that would 'ring' me if they have reached a certain Low, or High, price. I don't want my portfolio to 'own' or 'control' my time or attention.

 

Our son who works from home as programmer told me one of his close friend from the University is making a comfortable living as full time day-trader.

Nothing new. I went to University during the tech boom. I know people who had Coops at Microsoft getting big money, who literally walked out after a few weeks because they got rich daytrading.
Why work for $1-2k/wk, when you just made hundreds of thousands or in some cases millions day trading.

Yes it can be done but the vast majority fail at day trading, it's more like winning a lottery odds wise.

 

I know, that's why I've repeatedly said I don't think it's a winning strategy, and why I don't do it.
I'm just saying I know people who have been successful at it, and I think I know their mindset, of at least my sample.

 

I have a watchlist that is too big. At any given time I have a few stocks on my buy list. What often ends up happening is my buy list takes my focus and some of the names on my watch list that were previously on my buy list enter buy territory but I have not had time to do a current review.

I have a few Watchlists. One contains all current holdings (about 25? including ETFs) and that is generated by the brokerage and sent to me via email at the end of each trading day. That way, no matter where I am at, I can scan the Watchlist in my email to see what was Green or Red that day and by how much, absolute and percentage. I spend no more than about 20 seconds looking at it at my leisure (often not at all) and then I delete it.

The other Watchlist occasionally contains 2-5 entries of stocks (or ETFs occasionally) that I might be interested in owning as a 'swap' from something I already own at the right price. Being in decumulation, I have no new net funds to invest, so buying anything new necessitates the sale of something else - I intentionally spend ALL recurring investment income every year.

I have set up no Alerts that would 'ring' me if they have reached a certain Low, or High, price. I don't want my portfolio to 'own' or 'control' my time or attention.

I am similar in my approach. I have a spreadsheet that ranks my watchlist companies sorted by the best valued companies. Each year I am adding $ to my portfolio and the 1st step at year start is to check my existing weights and create a plan of stocks I want to add or add to. If I need cash, I also list companies I may sell if they are well valued but underperforming.

I have watchlists in the Globe for all the companies I have and those I may want to add. Then just wait for favorable RSI's for the stocks to buy or sell. You have to be flexible too for opportunities as stocks you may not have been watching get oversold due to daily events and become the best valued or are great companies now at a discount. MDA was an ex that fell 30% a month ago so added a little. A Us bank I had just fell ~ 10% a few days ago so added a little etc.

 

So, the market closed today after shifting from 'EXTREME FEAR' back to just 'FEAR' today. lol

I did some trades and a little more nibbling on some discounts.

 

Interesting, when you ask AI to draw itself in a scene...

 

About a month ago I asked Copilot a question on what forums I could visit to discuss Canadian money related issues.

I got this answer (I have been visiting these 3 for a few years)

Financial Wisdom Forum - Index page

Discussion community where Canadian investors meet for financial education and empowerment on personal finance, taxes and investing in stocks, bonds and ETFs

www.financialwisdomforum.org

Canadian Money Forum

A forum community dedicated to Canadian personal finance enthusiasts. Come join the discussion about investing, stock portfolios, equities, frugality, real estate, market trading, taxation, retirement, and more!

www.canadianmoneyforum.com

https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadianInvestor/

 

Rational Reminder is another finance community with discussion forums. https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

 

I visited the page here is part of the introduction

"New account applications will be reviewed by community moderators within 24 hours. Note that we will not accept applications originating from IP addresses known to be Tor exit nodes, or VPNs. "

I began using VPN as I had issues with sympatico email when going to Mexico or South Africa. After trial and error I found UK works best with bell sympatico email. If post on this forum with my VPN you see the UK flag under my name. If do not use VPN the you see the Canadian flag. You will see a Canadian flag under my name as the VPN disconnected in this post.