[Eder]

Time to allow foreign competition.

It is allowed, just not profitable once requirements the big three need to submit to are added to the equation. Thats why Verizon took a powder.

I was looking for an exit out of Rogers since they have given up increasing the dividend rate. This is beginning to look like an opportunity coming up...$70 was my number.

 

[james4beach]

This purchase should be blocked by the government to protect the public interest, and ensure competition. It's a perfect antitrust case.

Too much consolidation among Bell & Rogers. This is the kind of thing which keeps screwing telco consumers and harming the competitive economy. It's the same old story, over and over again.

Anyone going short SJR.B ?

 

[Numbersman61]

I fail to see how this merger affects competition in the cable business. Shaw and Rogers do not compete in the same markets. With regards to cellular, Shaw is a small player.

 

[Eder]

The fact Rogers will sooner or later move the Shaw office out of Alberta will compel government approval. At any rate its a life line for Shaw. Too many competitors in a small country.

 

[Covariance]

I fail to see how this merger affects competition in the cable business. Shaw and Rogers do not compete in the same markets. With regards to cellular, Shaw is a small player.

Agreed. BCE was able to buy MTS a while back which is an imperfect parallel, but similar enough. Rogers, Shaw’s advisors have no doubt studied that one. I would guess the issues will be in wireless where the Government wants to ensure a three player market. We will see.

 

[james4beach]

They absolutely do compete in the same markets. Shaw has a cell phone service which competes with Rogers. In fact I was just about to sign up with Shaw's, but now I'm afraid it will convert into Rogers Fido which is a service I absolutely hate.

Additionally, Shaw might have expanded their internet offering to other regions that Rogers already has a presence in.

There are many ways these companies compete with each other. Merging them harms the competitive landscape and is bad for the country... the merger should be blocked.

 

[milhouse]

If the deal does go through, the Feds will at minimum, have to open competition on the MVNO front.

They absolutely do compete in the same markets. Shaw has a cell phone service which competes with Rogers. In fact I was just about to sign up with Shaw's, but now I'm afraid it will convert into Rogers Fido which is a service I absolutely hate.

Was reading in the G&M that another option is to sell some of Shaw's wireless subscribers to Quebecor or Xplornet to (similar to what Bell had to do when they bought MTS) or to Cogeco to get them into the wireless game.

 

[doctrine]

Shaw can't compete against the Big 3 in wireless. And they don't want to. That is why they are selling. A 4th player cannot compete. There is a strong possibility that Shaw and Rogers combine cable operations and spin out Freedom Mobile. Of course, that will be the end of Freedom Mobile as a major player. They can't afford to expand their network, forget about 5G which will cost far more than 4G by many factors.

By the way, their service sucks pretty bad, unless you happen to be in a core urban area. You get what you pay for with their cheap service - cheap coverage. Urban areas not so popular these days either in the pandemic. Maybe Shaw sees all this and it's time to get out before it bankrupts them. Sell at the top.

For everyone thinking the Federal government will save you, forget it. They collect billions and billions in licensing fees every few years. Maybe there is some alternate universe where the Feds decide to unbuckle infrastructure, but that is mostly a dream, as they have no real incentive or will to do anything.

 

[Numbersman61]

I currently have Shaw cable and high speed Internet. Telus is my cellular and home security provider. A number of my friends have left Shaw and gone with Telus for the entire bundle package. Since Shaw does not have good cell service, they are losing many customers to Telus. I believe this is the main driver for the Rogers deal.

 

[kcowan]

I am a Shaw Mobile customer. I see it as a move to protect their legacy internet service and sell some phones.

I bought DWs iPhone From Virgin and my iPhone 2020 SE from Shaw.

I have very low expectations from any merger.

 

[agent99]

We have Shaw Satellite for TV and Start.ca for internet (uses Cogeco cable). Cell is Speakout which is on Rogers. All work well. But who knows going forward

Do Rogers offer satellite TV? Doesn't seem like it. Interesting to see what they do with Shaw Satellite if this deal goes through. No Rogers cable in our area. Only Cogeco, I believe. Start offer TV over Cogeco's cable, but it is a small player. Bell satellite is available, I believe. Interesting to see how we are affected.

 

[Covariance]

The cost savings, after it closes are about as low risk as they come. Duplicate back office personnel and facilities (accountants, warehouses, planning, lawyers, etc) can be achieved without impacting customer service or competitive positioning. Then there are effiiciencies from combining groups or functions that are subject to scale economies (ie the bigger base lowers the per unit cost). I don't doubt it when Rogers says there are $1billion in savings.

On the new investment front (capital investment) - these networks consume a lot of capital to maintain and from time to time upgrade to new platforms (eg 5G). Investing this across the combined base of users as opposed to duplication is a big help for the company going forward.

 

[Tostig]

I used to subscribe to Star Choice with their most basic offering. Then they were taken over by Shaw and when I eventually looked at what I was paying, it had creeped from their most basic to a Silver package. I think that's what was called negative-billing.

My family complained that I kept watching the same programs over and over again. Those specialty channels kept repeating the same documenatries.

So I cut the service and am on rooftop antenna now.

 

[Mechanic]

Mine is all taxable. My ACB is ~$27 so I am suddenly in the black. I am unsure if I would sell and at what price. It has always been a long term hold for me -- just sitting back and collecting the dividends. What price are you hoping for?

I think if it gets to $35 I'll sell it all and take the cap gain in the taxable. Maybe sell a couple of dogs to offset.

 

[robfordlives]

Tempted to sell Rogers over $60 here as the euphoria of this acquisition wears off. I also don't understand their management. Last year they were hammered because of their unlimited data plans that had huge absorption but the market didn't like it as it reduced ARPU as overage fees took a hit....now they go and acquire a competitor to gain market share - what was the point of the unlimited promo?? It's like there is no plan, they are just hoping something works.

Having said that I would be stuck with some large capital gains. Telco is 4% of my portfolio which I think is too rich

Rogers stock drops as unlimited wireless plans hurt revenue

The results emphasized the pressures facing the entire telecom sector, including intense competition on fees, the shift to unlimited data pricing and the potential for government intervention in cutting cellphone bills

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[Retiredguy]

"Stuck with some large capital gains"

Gosh darn🙉 don't ya just hate it when that happens!

 

[Eder]

I haven't sold, not sure I intend to. It's difficult to find a company as high a quality to replace Rogers, of those that I think are suitable I already own full positions.

I guess I could swap Rogers for Quebecor which I don't own but I believe it would be a wash for my portfolio but would incur substantial taxes.

OK...back to sleep...wake me up when the dividends are paid.

 

[kcowan]

Is anyone else concerned that the acquisition might impact Shaw Mobile And Shaw Direct? I am a customer of both!

 

[james4beach]

Is anyone else concerned that the acquisition might impact Shaw Mobile And Shaw Direct? I am a customer of both!

Absolutely could. Yes I am concerned.

I phoned Shaw today to check something about my bill. The agent told me there is a promotion and I could switch to some plan that would bundle internet + phone at a reduced rate.

I told her, sorry, I'm worried about Rogers buying Shaw. I hate dealing with Rogers (having had years of previous bad experiences with their billing and customer service practices) and so I am hesitant to add any Shaw services now that Rogers is about to ruin them. I already experienced Rogers ruining Fido... I used to love Fido, but it became a disaster once it became Rogers.

I'm not going through that again. In fact, today I started shopping around to competitors to get away from my existing Shaw service out of concern of what Rogers is going to do to them.

 

[andrewf]

Shaw can't compete against the Big 3 in wireless. And they don't want to. That is why they are selling. A 4th player cannot compete. There is a strong possibility that Shaw and Rogers combine cable operations and spin out Freedom Mobile. Of course, that will be the end of Freedom Mobile as a major player. They can't afford to expand their network, forget about 5G which will cost far more than 4G by many factors.

By the way, their service sucks pretty bad, unless you happen to be in a core urban area. You get what you pay for with their cheap service - cheap coverage. Urban areas not so popular these days either in the pandemic. Maybe Shaw sees all this and it's time to get out before it bankrupts them. Sell at the top.

For everyone thinking the Federal government will save you, forget it. They collect billions and billions in licensing fees every few years. Maybe there is some alternate universe where the Feds decide to unbuckle infrastructure, but that is mostly a dream, as they have no real incentive or will to do anything.

Given that the country can only support a couple wireless network operators, maybe it is time to treat it as a regulated monopoly.