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Discussion Starter #1
Data source: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirustracker/

There are obviously many differences, but I am looking at the daily new case history (how many new cases over time) to get an idea of whether we seem to be getting control on this situation. What I see under Daily New Cases is a huge difference between provinces, where it looks like most provinces have a pretty stable number over time. The only provinces where daily cases are still increasing are: Nova Scotia, Ontario, Quebec

ON and QC obviously have the largest populations in the country and they neighbour each other (cross-contaminate). Large populations are harder to manage.

Any insights on all this? I see the numbers as hopeful. BC and AB are large provinces too, with large populations, and yet they seem to be controlling their spread.
 

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Ontario looks like it has been more or less constant rate of new infections (so not accelerating). There was a shortage of testing capacity in Ontario so recent high day might just be an artifact of catching up on testing. The rate of new cases in Canada is slowing as you would expect following several weeks of strong social distancing. Now we are waiting for the crest of active cases and the eventual decline.
 

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I gave up on trying to keep track of the numbers. It is futile without comprehensive testing anyways.

The number I am most concerned about is the mortality rate.

They say that half the deaths in Ontario are attributed to nursing homes. I am not sure if that is good news or bad news.

Frankly, I don't even know what the rules are in our city for "social distancing" anymore. It changes all the time.

The rules for nursing homes keeps changing by the hour and yesterday, my wife was handed a piece of thin cloth with a hole on each end for her ears. Then she was told to put a paper towel inside to avoid moisture. The employer bought them at a variety store somewhere.

Today I caught a bit of an announcement on CBC that anyone entering a nursing home had to wear full PPE gear.

Someone should tell the politicians the workers don't even have masks.
 

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Data source: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirustracker/

There are obviously many differences, but I am looking at the daily new case history (how many new cases over time) to get an idea of whether we seem to be getting control on this situation. What I see under Daily New Cases is a huge difference between provinces, where it looks like most provinces have a pretty stable number over time. The only provinces where daily cases are still increasing are: Nova Scotia, Ontario, Quebec

ON and QC obviously have the largest populations in the country and they neighbour each other (cross-contaminate). Large populations are harder to manage.

Any insights on all this? I see the numbers as hopeful. BC and AB are large provinces too, with large populations, and yet they seem to be controlling their spread.
There is a nice article on why BC is doing well, and others on why Quebec is doing poorly.
Lots of reasons, but it really comes down to a bit of luck, and the large number of Snowbirds & Spring break travellers in ON & QC.
 

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Any insights on all this? I see the numbers as hopeful. BC and AB are large provinces too, with large populations, and yet they seem to be controlling their spread.
My guesses are poplulation density and how fast/strict provincial rules were put in place.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
There is a nice article on why BC is doing well, and others on why Quebec is doing poorly.
Lots of reasons, but it really comes down to a bit of luck, and the large number of Snowbirds & Spring break travellers in ON & QC.
Interesting. Yes I agree there is always luck involved. Timing of spring break can indeed be a difference as well and both school and university breaks occur at different times.

But I'll tell you another thing I saw in Cuba, first hand experience at the start of March. When in the hotel lobby, I started having European tourists coming up to me and asking if they could buy some CAD from me. I also had people asking me for hotel tips; how does one book a last minute hotel in, say, Toronto or Montreal?

It happened a few times and I kept thinking, what strange questions. And why does everyone want my CAD.

It took me a few days to figure out what was happening. All the European tourists, with no more direct flights to Europe, were re-booking themselves on the remaining flights .... to transit through Canada or maybe even stay here for a while! It appeared that Toronto and Montreal were the main destinations.

I suspect that many infected Europeans went through YYZ (Ontario) and YUL (Quebec)

I don't know how big a factor this might have been, but I promise you that Italian, French, German tourists, at least from the Caribbean, were coming in droves to Canada.
 

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In Ontario, half the deaths are attributed to older nursing homes where they have 4 patients in a room.

One nursing home has 30 COVID deaths including another one today.

Who puts their family member into a nursing home with 4 to a room ?
 

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Unfortunately, retirement homes will inevitably be harder hit than anywhere except perhaps a hospital.

You have a group of people living in one big 'house' if you will.
Physical distancing and self-isolating are impossible to achieve.
You have people coming in from outside frequently.
The residents are all in the high risk category for serious outcomes if they get the virus.
While government regulated, most are private businesses which has negative implications in terms of what the priorities are.

I get annoyed when I hear our politicians repeatedly saying, 'our senior homes are our highest priority.' It's easy to say the words but I see NO indication that the words are resulting in them DOING anything. Why for example is sags' wife being handed an inadequate mask rather than a government supplied mask? Why if there is a shortage of staff in many of these homes now, are trained staff not be re-directed from hospitals, etc. to protect these most vulnerable FIRST?

They keep talking about an 'iron ring' of protection for these homes. Why then are staff not required to stay on site, 24/7 to stop any chance of the virus being brought into the home? No one in, doesn't just mean no visitors who could bring in the virus. It should be no one in and no one OUT including staff. If it is impractical for staff to 'live-in', then have a shuttle bus taking them between the home and a nearby motel/hotel where they stay in self-isolation when not on duty. THAT is an 'iron ring'.

The real problem as I see it is that they are PRIVATE and as such that is what will always get in the way. After this is all over, that may be a time to look at having all seniors homes become part of our overall Provincial health care systems, just like hospitals are.
 

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In Ontario, half the deaths are attributed to older nursing homes where they have 4 patients in a room.

One nursing home has 30 COVID deaths including another one today.

Who puts their family member into a nursing home with 4 to a room ?
Where else would you put them?

Honestly, how would you care for the elderly in a cost effective manner?
 

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Where else would you put them?

Honestly, how would you care for the elderly in a cost effective manner?
In Provincial nursing homes rather than private nursing homes. If we provide 'universal health care' as part of our Provincial services to residents, why does it end when people need to stay in a nursing home rather than in their own home?
 

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Discussion Starter #11
I think public nursing homes (under the healthcare system) are a good idea. What we're seeing here is yet another failure in privatized health care.

Not to mention the safety of the employees. The employees will be safer under well regulated, government-run health care procedures that are an extension of existing hospitals and nursing.
 

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I think public nursing homes (under the healthcare system) are a good idea. What we're seeing here is yet another failure in privatized health care.

Not to mention the safety of the employees. The employees will be safer under well regulated, government-run health care procedures that are an extension of existing hospitals and nursing.
Of course, we need to spend more tax money.
We're already at a 50% tax rate, covid 19 is going to push that higher, and you want to spend even MORE?
We can't afford it.

Is there really any limit to how much we can tax and spend?
We're already at the point where we can't even let people have a living wage, before we start to tax them to pay for the government.

Enough is enough, the government really needs to get their $#[email protected] together and stick to their basic responsibilities.

They knew about COVID19 in January, and did nothing for months. I agree they might have had trouble closing the borders back them, but they could have done something.
 

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I think public nursing homes (under the healthcare system) are a good idea. What we're seeing here is yet another failure in privatized health care.

Not to mention the safety of the employees. The employees will be safer under well regulated, government-run health care procedures that are an extension of existing hospitals and nursing.
I don't see private nursing homes as a bad thing but there need to be regulations. Government run usually means excessive waste and/or spending IMO.

Covid-19 should have had the government adjust the needed regulations for those places faster than those for the general public, as in, screening for employees and no visitor access.
 

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Data source: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirustracker/

There are obviously many differences, but I am looking at the daily new case history (how many new cases over time) to get an idea of whether we seem to be getting control on this situation. What I see under Daily New Cases is a huge difference between provinces, where it looks like most provinces have a pretty stable number over time. The only provinces where daily cases are still increasing are: Nova Scotia, Ontario, Quebec

ON and QC obviously have the largest populations in the country and they neighbour each other (cross-contaminate). Large populations are harder to manage.

Any insights on all this? I see the numbers as hopeful. BC and AB are large provinces too, with large populations, and yet they seem to be controlling their spread.
I think the size of Canada also plays a part......different areas......BC, central, maritimes are all on different timelines. And while the populations in BC and Alberta are large, they don’t even compare to Ontario. I was surprised that Toronto has more people than the Maritimes, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. I need to finally see the rest of the Canada after all this is done.
 

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I don't see private nursing homes as a bad thing but there need to be regulations. Government run usually means excessive waste and/or spending IMO.

Covid-19 should have had the government adjust the needed regulations for those places faster than those for the general public, as in, screening for employees and no visitor access.
There was a major policy failure there, at some homes, they had an outbreak, and didn't even segregate symptomatic COVID patients. The reality is that we don't have the resources for this stuff. The government is too intent on wasting money.

Good news, in my city they decided to "look at the budget" again. Apparently they realized that maybe they didn't need to spend $200k on some chairs, and apparently there are some items they might be able to cut out. Really this crap never belonged in the budget in the first case.

Before we start putting billions of more spending on the books, lets cut out all the junk we don't need.
 

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Another issue with the LTC staff, is not just that they go home and return, but many of them work in multiple facilities, and even as support for older people still in their own home. Ontario, to my knowledge, still hasn't put a stop to that.
 

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What I do not understand is why the curves and the mortality rates are so different between provinces. Looked at the CBC stats today. Ontario and Quebec curves have been going up, up, up. BC, AB, Sask curves have been flatlining. No doubt there will be a scientific explanation after this has passed. Our rural population is a much older population. I would have thought that the maritime provinces would have had a higher mortality rate because of their aging population but it does not appear to be so. Perhaps the smaller size make the data skew.
 

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To compare at all you have to shift the timelines which this CBC chart does not do. With exponential growth time is a major factor. This is like comparing Canada to Europe and saying we are fine - which is how many countries managed to not prepare at all

The early stages, which Canada still appears to be in, would be impacted greatly by factors such as a super spreader and social distancing policies. Once you have community spread and x cases, the trends line up very close around the world until distancing policies started to work (takes weeks for the numbers to react)

I don't see population density as a major factor. Canadians live mostly in urban cities interacting with each other like everywhere else, just that the cities are further spread out. If more Canadians lived isolated in the boonies maybe but this is not the case.
 

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Some of the differences have to do with timing of school breaks, the number of snowbirds returning as well as both Alberta and BC taking steps before other provinces. Differences in testing rates and how things are reported may also be a factor.

BC school breaks were later and many cancelled their travel plans. Ontario breaks were earlier and there were not many cases do many people travelled.
 
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