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Probability of election?

12K views 305 replies 24 participants last post by  sags 
#1 ·
While an election could technically be called at any time with a minority government, what does everyone think the actual probability of one occurring this 2021 calendar year? Im reading trudeau is thinking of having one...
 
#2 ·
Some people are happy with how he's handling the pandemic.

Though to be honest, the things that he's in charge of are a disaster.
vaccine shortages, and a failure to close the border.
I'd bet he's calling an election soon, because someone realized not closing the borders was a PR failure.

The tough decisions are stuck at the premiers.

The problem is that he's trying to time it when his popularity is a bit higher, but he seems to waddle from one failure to the next. I think he'll likely get another minority, anyway.
 
#3 ·
I agree with everything you say. But i mean why call an election when most people would not want to do one during a pandemic. Would be the lowest voter turn out in history. I imagine most wouldnt want to bother with one.
What usually happens to all existing bills that are being read. Do they get scrapped?
 
#4 ·
My guess would be towards the end of October IF the vaccine rollout goes well. I would think that the Liberals do not want to give OToole time to define himself.

Mind you, anything can happen between now and then.

I am not impressed with Trudeau. But I even have less confidence in O'Toole et al- especially since he took so long to move on Derek Sloan.

I believe that O'Toole is desperately in need of a new set of political advisors-and fast.
 
#8 ·
I don't see how the Liberals "messed up" the vaccine rollout as that is a Provincial responsibility, and the Premiers told Ottawa to "stay out" of their business.

Acquiring the vaccines is a Federal matter, but all the countries in the world are chasing vaccines. Canada is not unique in that regard.

I think the Conservatives will have to do far better than hoping Canadians cast an anti-Trudeau vote.

They need to develop some policies that Canadians would support, if they hope to win.

So far, I haven't heard any from the defacto leader Pierre Poilivere, who is on television and Youtube all the time.

Where is Erin O'Toole ?
 
#13 ·
I don't see how the Liberals "messed up" the vaccine rollout as that is a Provincial responsibility, and the Premiers told Ottawa to "stay out" of their business.

Acquiring the vaccines is a Federal matter, but all the countries in the world are chasing vaccines. Canada is not unique in that regard.

I think the Conservatives will have to do far better than hoping Canadians cast an anti-Trudeau vote.

They need to develop some policies that Canadians would support, if they hope to win.

So far, I haven't heard any from the defacto leader Pierre Poilivere, who is on television and Youtube all the time.

Where is Erin O'Toole ?
It is the job of the federal government to secure the vaccine supply.

It is the job of the province to administer it.

The problem is with our poor vaccine supply, and Trudeau misleading Canadians that we have a stable supply.
He was saying he was confident hours before it got cut off.


I agree, the CPC has to do better than anti-Trudeau. Logically that should be enough, but quite honestly people aren't as furious as they should be.
Look how close the US election was, and the argument for an anti-Trump vote was even stronger there.
 
#9 · (Edited)
Canada has a high global ranking for COVID-19 handling and resiliency, according to a Bloomberg survey which evaluates many metrics.

We're doing reasonably well in the pandemic. I think the government has done a good job overall under these circumstances. The last thing we need is a Conservative party to slash government services and start giving tax cuts to the rich... this is exactly how the US developed a large wealth gap and ended up with poor society safety nets (which is now destroying their society).

We also have to remember that today's Conservative party is really Reform/Alliance, which admires the US Republicans. These days, Harper is producing videos for the American right wing media and the party even ran a secret American in the last election! Did that guy ever renounce his US citizenship, by the way?
 
#10 ·
#12 · (Edited)
One significant challenge for the Conservatives will be talent. O’Toole does not currently have much bench strength.

He will more than likely have a difficult time attracting star candidates. People who would be recognized as good Cabinet material. Especially in the vote rich urban areas of Montreal, Toronto 416/905, and Vancouver.

Scheer's tenure, IMHO, did a lot of damage to the Conservative party. It may take some time to repair this ongoing damage. In the meantime O'Toole will have to decide who is target market is. Is he going to push policies that are aimed at placating the 25 percent of Conservative Party members who are social conservatives or is he going to present policies that attract votes-specifically the votes in urban areas, in the Maritimes, and in Quebec.
 
#17 ·
Maybe bribes paid to the vaccine companies. Maybe threats of market disruptions for their drugs in some countries. Maybe threats of Congressional investigations .......questions should be directed to the vaccine makers about what is going on.
 
#19 ·
Those private companies sell a whole lot more than vaccines, for a whole lot more money. At various prices in different countries. No doubt they also benefit from government programs in some places. It's likely not as simple as "vaccine goes to those who pay more for it".
 
#21 · (Edited)
I think some of you guys have very unrealistic ideas of what other countries are experiencing, and are losing sight of the global context.

I'm still a registered patient of a couple US clinics and have been getting email updates. Even if I lived in the US right now, I wouldn't be able to get vaccinated for the foreseeable future. The current estimates I heard from my US clinic are vaccination in late summer. Even though the US has a high vaccine delivery rate, it varies by state, is not equal (probably depends on wealth).

The US clinic that I'm a patient of is a top research hospital in its state. It is a top tier clinic ... and I'm telling you that they will NOT vaccinate me until late summer. In fact they are not even committing to a date, but rather emphasizing that their priority is to vaccinate health care workers and high vulnerability groups.

Canada does have the largest number of vaccine doses secured/locked in, per capita, of any country on earth. That doesn't mean the manufacturers have been able to pump out all the doses immediately on day one. Other countries are in the same boat.

You can look at real statistics if you want to see how we're actually doing. The Bloomberg ranking which can be sorted by doses given per capita , shows that Canada is #11 out of the 52 countries they are tracking. Not the best, certainly, but we're up there.
 
#31 ·
Canada might have the largest number of doses "secured/locked in", but that doesn't matter unless they show up.
Most of Canada has been shutting down vaccination clinics due to shortages, both the US and the EU are restricting COVID19 shipments, though the EU apparently relaxed recently.

As far as the Bloomberg ranking, it showed 13 when I checked (5am Sunday Feb 7) at 2.12 doses per hundred. Far less than the UK or the US at 9.48 & 6.42, and nowhere near Israel at 38.

I think you're a Liberal partisan, and are unable/unwilling to accept that the Trudeau is anything but world leading at everything.
It's February and they're finally taking the steps to control international travel they should have back in March 2020.
Why they didn't lock down the borders, instead of letting Canada be part of the global petri dish is beyond me.
I wonder how many of the 4k variants are here?

There are some things they did right, but I think Canadas Federal COVID response is abysmal, behind only a handful of first world countries.
 
#28 ·
James. I don't know where are you taking this stats .... #11, really?! Check
Yes, I even linked to the ranking. I said the #11 position is based on number of people vaccinated.

Here again is the Bloomberg ranking which I also posted above. Click the column in the table for the number of vaccine doses given.

While it's becoming popular to complain about slow vaccination in Canada, on the world stage, we are doing quite well.

Really, people in all countries are complaining about slow vaccination. I was on a music event chatroom tonight and people from the UK, US, and all over Europe were ALL complaining about how slow their vaccination rollouts are.
 
#23 ·
The current estimates I heard from my US clinic are vaccination in late summer. - You at least got estimate, my mom, MIL, uncle, aunt all above 75 and didn't get any estimate ..
Canada does have the largest number of vaccine doses secured/locked in, per capita, of any country on earth. - very likely just Liberal "fake news", where are those contract and what are conditions?!
 
#27 ·
#29 ·
According to which report?! Liberal Israel Democracy Institute?!
First of all it's not true...just check worldometers.info and maybe they have this rate because they are doing a lot of test? Don't do tests at all and your rate will be 0. By death per 1M, Israel and Canada are exactly the same 52 an 53 places.
Do you really think that Trudeau's Liberals are managing Covid better than Israel?! What a joke!
According to Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research Israel fully vaccinated (2 doses) 23%, Canada .... 0.3 and Canadians are happy :)
 
#36 ·
Israel isn't vaccinating the Palestinian population.......who are awaiting the Sputnik vaccine from Russia, so the statistics may be misleading.

The US is shutting down vaccination sites due to a lack of vaccine. Every country is trying to secure vaccines at a faster rate.
 
#39 ·
Palestinians are not Israeli citizens (even though Israel spending millions on
Humanitarian Aid to the Palestinians).

Just couple of days ago Israel gave to Palestinians 5,000 doses of Covid.
However, considering constant military attacks on Israel , imho, they shouldn't do it.
All Israeli citizens include Arabs, Druz and other minorities getting vaccine same way like Jewish
 
#42 ·
If there was an election now, or in the foreseeable future I would not vote for O'Toole. He has not given me a reason to do so. The Conservatives have a policy convention coming up in March.

It will be interesting to see what policies are passed by the membership vs. what policies are actually put forward by elected those who are elected or running for office leading up to, and during the next election.
 
#43 ·
If there was an election now, or in the foreseeable future I would not vote for O'Toole. He has not given me a reason to do so. The Conservatives have a policy convention coming up in March.

It will be interesting to see what policies are passed by the membership vs. what policies are actually put forward by elected those who are elected or running for office leading up to, and during the next election.
No choice for me .... yes, I'd prefer to vote for Harper...but the major task is to kick out the worse PM ever out of the office
 
#49 ·
I know, isn't it disgusting how Conservatives play the population, and take advantage of religious fervour?

People have powerful beliefs that they hold very dear. They are sacred beliefs at the core of their being. In the case of @gibor365 it is a deep love for Israel and the ties to his ancestry. And then some shady politician shows up, and manipulates them into becoming a voting base.

That was Harper's big idea. To create a religious + pro Israel voting block in Canada, just like the American Republicans do it.
 
#50 ·
O"Toole and the Conservatives have a fundamental problem. The Conservative Party members are estimated to be about 25 percent social conservatives. Canada is 10 percent. Much less in the vote rich urban areas. This creates a fundamental push and pull within the Party. Scheer ruined his chances and set the tone in his first election interview in Quebec.

Instead of spouting the tried, true, and successful responses of Harper he went a different way. He got publicity but it was in the form of cartoons rather than columns. The election continued to go downhill for him from that moment. At first I thought it was a one off...bad advice. But it was not so, he got worse as time went on. O'Toole will not repeat those foolish mistakes.
 
#51 ·
O"Toole and the Conservatives have a fundamental problem. The Conservative Party members are estimated to be about 25 percent social conservatives. Canada is 10 percent. Much less in the vote rich urban areas.
ian, how does this compare to the PCs (before Reform/Alliance took over the party)... for example Mulroney, Diefenbaker.

Back then, was the party still this interested in social conservatism?

I know the tone and strategy that Harper set. But I'm wondering how things were different for the Conservative party before 2000. I'd love to hear from people older than me about those earlier decades.
 
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