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Discussion Starter #1
A full explanation of the indexes, by Martin Pring, here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:prings_inflation_and_deflation_indexes

In a way, it looks as if Pring is reinventing the wheel, because a chart of the CRB Index looks very similar to his inflation/deflation ratio.
He does, however, point out that "in many cases the Ratio leads the commodity market at both peaks and troughs".

A few quotes from the page linked above.
  • The Pring Inflation Index comprises mines and energy stocks. These are equities that benefit from rising commodity prices.
  • Deflation sensitive stocks include industry groups such as banks, insurers, utilities and so forth. These equities tend to out-perform when economic conditions are either weak or in the early phase of a recovery and represent the components of the Pring Deflation Index
  • These indexes are best used by plotting a ratio between them-the Inflation/Deflation Ratio. The StockCharts formula for this would be !PRII:!PRDI
  • A rising ratio is inflationary and a declining one indicates a deflationary environment

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One by each, they are coming around to the "inflation is possible" view

... I am getting nudged in the direction of ‘inflation trade’ and as part of that I might need to concede that the US stock market may not go the way of the bears with inflation in the system ...
https://nftrh.com/2016/04/13/vs-spy/
 

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Not so fast one look @ parabolic debt chart it cant continue forever. Inflation is most common so odds are in favour of predicting inflation @ any random point in time. Though commodities have probably fallen in terms of man hours & energy to produce them, I have heard it said the long term trend in commodity prices has been down for last 5000 years.
 

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update on Pring's chart

I was expecting a double bottom pattern, with a Fib retrace to at least 62%.
But it wasn't to be; it only went as low as 38% retrace.
Inflation/deflation ratio has now cleared the 20-month moving average.
Next hurdle is the red down-trend line.

 
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