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Discussion Starter #41
^ Wow, there is now a survival analysis model/formulation for the existence of the human population.

Now I have the question for the expert(s)- has the above analysis and theorem been applied to the current pandemic? If so, when is it going to end? Doesn't have to be a specific date ... just nailing it as being the end of this year or next year would be good enough for me. Otherwise, I'll stick with the 6' social distancing rule, mask requirement, etc. and wait for the vaccine or the pandemic to die out eventually, whichever comes first. God (if that exists) help us.
To know when the virus will "die" needs more than a survival analysis because the virus is spreading, it's a growing population. Since the virus is spreading at a rate faster than its expected survival, it won't disappear. We can control it, but not eradicate it, same for the flu.

The other issue one has with life expectancy numbers is that usually they will give an age where "50%" of that age group are still alive. So then you are left with the issue of whether you feel lucky or not. Which side of that equation will you be on. You can never know that. So life expectancy numbers can't solve the retirement question completely.

My suggestion that if you are overly worried about dying before you get to spend your money, indicates that you are either a person with a spending mentality or you are worried about what other people may think of you. A saver, while not ecstatic about dying with lots of money unspent, would be less concerned about it then a spender.

You see, a saver looks at money differently. Just having money makes them feel safe, secure and gives them the ability to enjoy their life without the worry of money. Nothing in that last sentence has anything to do with spending it. A spender however, looks almost exclusively at what the money will buy them or allow them to do. I am sure they would like financial security as well, but since spending aspirations tend to come ahead of that, the only way they will ever achieve life without the worry of having not enough money, is if they are lucky enough to earn or acquire more then they can spend. Although possible, it would be much less frequent, I would think.
Well, to me, what makes worth living our lives is our experiences. Some experiences cost time, some cost money, some both, some none. A smile is a positive social experience which cost nothing. Helping friends to move into a new house is a positive social experience which cost time, but not money. Having internet to connect to the world is a positive social experience which cost money, but not time (having internet service). Going out to a picnic with friends is a positive social experience which cost money and time.

Lucky are those who live happily through decades with activities that cost barely no money, like playing in a park, going for a hike, going fun a jogging, going for a bike ride and most outdoors activities in the nature which have only the initial cost of the equipment. I like all those activities and those were my only activities as a kid and I enjoyed them.

But even though I'm not a spender, I like to travel (which cost a lot), I like to go at a chalet with friends (which has a cost), I like to go out to restaurants once in a while, I like to learn and read (free resources are limited).

I'm not worried about money itself, I'm worried about all the experiences I want to live throughout my life. Since some needs money, some needs time, therefore I end up being worried of two things : time and money.

When one saves money, he feels safe because he knows he'll be able to buy things with that money if he has too or if he wants to. But that doesn't mean he knows what he'll buy with that money, so it's just pilling up. On the other side, I know exactly everything I want to do and live throughout my life. Then, to reach my goal, a part of the equation is money and another part of the equation is time. It's not about savings, not about spending, it's about balancing time management and balancing experiences lived in the present vs in the future.

Let's say John is currently 25. He currently saves 15 000$ a year out of 20 000$ extra money and increases that amount by 2% every year. The remaining 5000$ is used to travel every year. He wants to have about 1.5M$ (in today's dollars) at his retirement in order to continue living as of today. Inflation is 2% and his savings are at 6% rate. In 40 years, he'll have 3.2M$, which is 1.45M$ in today's dollar, so he can retire at 65, he has done 40 travels and he can continue travelling every year. Now let's say he doesn't travel and saves 20 000$ instead. He thinks that if he doesn't travel now, he'll be able to travel a lot when he retires. In 35 years, he'll have 3M$, which is 1.5M$ in today's dollar so he retires 5 years early. He hasn't travelled during those 35 years. But since he retired early with the same amount of money, he can only travel once per year, so he travels once per year... he just started travelling 5 years earlier, which means 5 travels at 65 instead of 40 if he had travelled every year. What he bought is not more travel, it's more freedom of time. What's wrong here is that he had to retire at the same age (65) for that extra money no travelling worth it. Saving 20 000$ during 40 years leads to 4.3M$ which is 1.95M$ in today's dollar, which is 0.45M$ more than required which can be spent in 90 travels starting at age 65.

Case 1
  • Saves 15 000$/year
  • Spends 5 000$/year on travel
  • Retires at 65
  • Continues travelling once per year during retirement
  • Travelled 40 times as of 65
  • He is happy with his travel goals
Case 2
  • Saves 20 000$/year
  • Spends no money on travel
  • Retires at 60
  • Starts travelling once per year during retirement
  • Travelled 5 times as of 65
  • He bought 5 years of freedom
  • He never met his travel goals
Case 3
  • Saves 20 000$/year
  • Spends no money on travel
  • Retires at 65
  • Starts travelling once per year during retirement
  • Has not travelled yet as of 65, but can spent extra money on 90 travels
  • He can start his travel goals, as long as he's healthy
The question is : Does John prefer 5 years of freedom or does he prefer meeting his travel goals? He can either buy time & freedom, but not experiences or buy experiences but no time & freedom.

If John's interests would be an experience which costs no money, then Case 2 would be preferred. But that's not the current situation because he needs money to live his passions, unfortunately for him.
 

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Tell John about C-19 and that international travel will not be seen again in his lifetime. He will have more money for other experiences.
 

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Discussion Starter #43
Tell John about C-19 and that international travel will not be seen again in his lifetime. He will have more money for other experiences.
Hahaha, well hopefully that won't happen, with the tourism industry sharing about 10% of the GDP from a total impact point of view. Travel and tourism: share of global gdp 2000-2019 | Statista

But if ever travelling by plane gets very complicated and expensive, then I'll be happy to live in a big country like Canada and I'll do lots of roadtrips. I also guess that the European Union will have its boarders open for countries inside EU, so I may move to EU at some point.

No problems, only solutions!
 

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But if ever travelling by plane gets very complicated and expensive, then I'll be happy to live in a big country like Canada and I'll do lots of roadtrips. I also guess that the European Union will have its boarders open for countries inside EU, so I may move to EU at some point.

No problems, only solutions!
I really doubt we'll see international travel return to anything like in the past and I am happy to have done my fair share already. There's more I'd like to do, but I'll cope, without.

Like you, I see alternatives. I could do worse than stay right where I am, where I looked out my office window to see this just minutes ago:

EDIT: replaced 2 videos with another, scroll down a few posts


So I agree also - no problems, only solutions!
 

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  • Learning languages is part of my personal life goals. I also learn on my own for free using apps which is sufficient so far. I want to be fluent in 7 of the most influential languages so I can speak with local people in their own language. I'm working on my 4th at the moment. I was born knowing only 1. My spouse also and she speaks 5 at the moment because she travelled a lot when she was young. It adds so much more to the travelling experience. I'm also fascinated by languages in general, their history, construction and culture
...
I must say I am impressed by your language ability. May I ask how you maintain the languages you have learned? That I find to be a challenge. I attended a bilingual university for 4 years getting my honours BA after Ontario grade 13. I was fluent in French by graduation and spent time in France not long after graduation. But I have had little occasion to use French for many years and my fluency has eroded to barely passable French.

The same goes for Norwegian. My parents were born and raised there. They used the language at home to some extent when I was growing up. I spent time in Norway in my youth. Again, I have not used the language for many years and I can no longer converse in the language. I can still read it somewhat and I can understand a conversation, but I cannot really participate.

Now I speak Tagalog, the national language of the Philippines. I lived there for 3 years and, before moving, I took night school classes in the language in Vancouver beforehand. I have retained fluency only because my wife and I use the language at home and with our offspring.

So, while I might feel inclined to learn a new language, I find myself unlikely to do so, knowing it will be likely to languish from disuse. How do you solve that problem? Do you purposefully seek out situations that call upon you to use the languages you have learned? Or do you just have a language chip in your brain that keeps the language fresh, no matter how long kept in storage? I notice that those who grew to adulthood in another country with another language never seem to lose it even if they leave that country and rarely use the language later, even over many years. But I see that many, like me, struggle to retain learned languages that were not part of our growing up.
 

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Discussion Starter #46
May I ask how you maintain the languages you have learned? That I find to be a challenge.
I grew up in Quebec, I was raised on a farm, so I had absolutely no exposure to English. People around me spoke French only and no other language.

During my studies, obviously I learned English. We start learning English pretty young. Then I moved to Montreal to go to the university and I was suddenly exposed to a 50/50 French/English city. When I started working, we had clients speaking English obviously, so I had to ramp up. When I was about 20, I started watching movies in English only. Now my English level is decent, but definitely not as native speakers. And recently I don't have to talk English at my job, so I'm getting rusted a little bit.

I was 24 when I travelled for the first time and I went to an Hispanic country. After that travel, I wanted to learn Spanish. It's pretty easy when you are already fluent in French, so my ramp up was pretty fast. I use technology to learn. I use apps, websites, books and I watch movies/series on Netflix. My Spanish level is now at the intermediate level and I was pretty busy in the last few months so I'm stagnating at the moment. Speaking it fluently is the hardest part because you have to find someone to speak to, unless you start speaking to yourself during the day, trying to verbalise everything you do. With apps, it's easy to find someone to talk to. In big cities, it's also easy to find groups to chat with. The biggest issue is to find the time to synchronise with those people. I used to learn during my commutes or before going to bed, it's the only time I have left.

I also started German. It's next-level, it's harder to learn, but it's related to English so I'm able to grasp a few words. Again with Netflix, I started watching series in German.

I want to learn languages "in order of difficulty". My selection consists of the most influential languages in the world. After German, I'll start learning Russian, then Arabic, then Chinese.

My spouse had more luck. She was born speaking French, also, but then she lived 4 years in Brazil where she learned Portuguese. She lived 10 months in Japan where she learned Japanese. She lived 3 months in Spain, where she improved her Spanish. She currently speaks French, English, Portuguese, Spanish and Japanese. And she's currently learning Korean... She's sad that she lost a lot of her Japanese though, since she didn't practice a lot in the past 15 years.

Yes, learning multiple languages requires a lot of maintenance. You must keep up by at least doing some spaced repetition. Spaced repetition - Wikipedia
 

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To know when the virus will "die" needs more than a survival analysis because the virus is spreading, it's a growing population. Since the virus is spreading at a rate faster than its expected survival, it won't disappear. We can control it, but not eradicate it, same for the flu.
... in a nutshell, application of the analysis appears to there is a 50/50 chance of survival of either specimens.
 

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Tell John about C-19 and that international travel will not be seen again in his lifetime. He will have more money for other experiences.
My interest is sailing. I think it likely that getting around by small boat internationally may be permanently changed so much such that only the very wealthy will be able to participate. For example, it costs about $500 to land in Australia to pay for all the invasive species inspections they perform. What if one now has to pay for disease tests and quarantine measures? What if every county does this? Completely destroys the economics and pleasure of the experience.

Am I ever happy to be Canadian. Living in Ontario, Georgian Bay and the North Channel is 4 to 8 hours away depending upon where I launch. BC is also a possibility, even in winter, if I can convince myself and my wife that sailing at a few degrees above zero long term is feasible. Alternatively, scampering back and forth to Mexico might be feasible even if it costs $1000 to land one day, or 14 day quarantine measures.

What a mess. The future is so up in the air right now.
 

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I watch sailing videos on Youtube all the time and am jealous of the bravery of people traversing the world in all weather conditions.

Under the surface of sunshine and gorgeous views, it does seem to be a lot of work though.......and I am well past my prime for that.

I agree that we are lucky in Ontario, to have the Great Lakes, northern lakes and rivers and plenty of places to enjoy the water.

PS..........I am jealous of MP's views too !
 

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PS..........I am jealous of MP's views too !
I'll give you one more, to ramp up the jealousy factor just a tad (or by just a red hair, as a band leader I once worked with used to say). This video clip taken a few days ago from the front of the house I did not post before, because it shows enough of the landscape around here that some BC coastal sailors might be able to identify our location, not that that is such a big deal. I might remove the clip in a day or two. I experimented to the clips I posted upthread and I was able to edit them out of my post, so I know I can remove this one too.

If you sailors know where this is, just do me a favour and keep it to yourselves.

I included another I posted before. You can hear the sounds the whales make. You can also hear the sound of our cat, who wanted to be in on it. The video is rather poor, because the sun was on my cellphone viewfinder and it was hard to tell what I was capturing on video.

- deleted -
 

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My interest is sailing. I think it likely that getting around by small boat internationally may be permanently changed so much such that only the very wealthy will be able to participate. For example, it costs about $500 to land in Australia to pay for all the invasive species inspections they perform. What if one now has to pay for disease tests and quarantine measures? What if every county does this? Completely destroys the economics and pleasure of the experience.

Am I ever happy to be Canadian. Living in Ontario, Georgian Bay and the North Channel is 4 to 8 hours away depending upon where I launch. BC is also a possibility, even in winter, if I can convince myself and my wife that sailing at a few degrees above zero long term is feasible. Alternatively, scampering back and forth to Mexico might be feasible even if it costs $1000 to land one day, or 14 day quarantine measures.

What a mess. The future is so up in the air right now.
Maybe sailing will remain one of the stronger possibilities when air travel becomes all but extinct. Perhaps some added costs but, in the overall scheme...

As far as scampering back and forth to Mexico goes, if you live in Ontario, that's quite a schlepp from Lake Ontario, St. Lawrence Seaway, etc. to Mexico. Maybe better to be based here in BC. Some not bad sailing waters here too.
 

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Maybe sailing will remain one of the stronger possibilities when air travel becomes all but extinct. Perhaps some added costs but, in the overall scheme...

As far as scampering back and forth to Mexico goes, if you live in Ontario, that's quite a schlepp from Lake Ontario, St. Lawrence Seaway, etc. to Mexico. Maybe better to be based here in BC. Some not bad sailing waters here too.
No, Ontario to Mexico does not work. Thinking more of somehow having a west coast boat for the winter, and an Ontario boat for the summer. I think the first step in this thought process would be to propose renting my cousin's house in Comox (I think) for a winter to get the lay of the land. She winters in Mexico and I think the house is otherwise unoccupied.
 

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No, Ontario to Mexico does not work. Thinking more of somehow having a west coast boat for the winter, and an Ontario boat for the summer. I think the first step in this thought process would be to propose renting my cousin's house in Comox (I think) for a winter to get the lay of the land. She winters in Mexico and I think the house is otherwise unoccupied.
You could do a lot worse than Comox. The Comox Valley, including Courtenay and environs, are very nice. Good climate. Proximity to the sea. We have taken direct flights from Comox to Mexico a few times.
 
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