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Discussion Starter #1
When flu season ends, and with a vaccine around the corner, the virus scare will end suddenly. (Then we will be back to global warming as the bogyman).

That means that suddenly the main fear relating to investments will be 'what's the damage to the economy?' But this fear is already being priced into stocks. If it has completed this process is anyone's guess, but I'm guessing that there should be a flood of margin calls soon bringing one more plunge to retest the recent lows and we are done.

Remember, stocks anticipate the future. Stocks trade not on yesterdays news, but on what investors collectively think things will be like about 12 to 18 months in the future. When stocks bottom out in a panic, the collective consciousness of investors starts to wonder 'is it really this bad?' Some time in April folks will come to their senses and realize the virus is history, and the excess is squeezed out of previously overvalued stocks. Life will go on, and there is money to be made. have your buy list ready to hand, and don't hesitate to start buying.
 

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Some time in April folks will come to their senses and realize the virus is history, and the excess is squeezed out of previously overvalued stocks. Life will go on, and there is money to be made. have your buy list ready to hand, and don't hesitate to start buying.
You think the upcoming flood of bad financial reports that will come out over the next few quarters won't cause another big market dip?
 

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Things might get worse in the short term. Maybe even much worse. But they'll get much better in the long term.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
Well the fact that bad financial reports are anticipated suggests they may be already priced in. Stated another way, the fact that markets plunged means bad financial reports are being priced in, but who knows if the pricing in is accurate. I suppose if the reports are worse than anticipated, yes another plunge could occur. But if the reports are about what was already anticipated, no.
 

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Well the fact that bad financial reports are anticipated suggests they may be already priced in. Stated another way, the fact that markets plunged means bad financial reports are being priced in, but who knows if the pricing in is accurate. I suppose if the reports are worse than anticipated, yes another plunge could occur. But if the reports are about what was already anticipated, no.
For sure the bad reports based on shutdowns and closures are priced in. And the recent rally is due to the handouts/loans plus promises to get back to work ASAP. But what is not priced in, because it is unknown, is if the US gets over 1 million infections (definitely likely) and all hell breaks loose with state governors taking over and shutting things down even more aggressively.
 

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It is too unpredictable to call right now so the broad market will continue to roller coaster for, I think, at least another month, perhaps two depending on how much worse infections and deaths become. I think by the time Q1 results start coming in, those that surprise to the upside will see aggressive recoveries in stock prices and results that disappoint will be a drag on those stocks. An unequal recovery is what I see happening whenever it occurs.
 

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Discussion Starter #7
An unequal recovery: good point.
My main assumption is that virus's don't transmit very well in the warmer months so the virus thing is likely to die down quickly. Next assumption is damage to the economy will be assessed quickly, and market will commence recovery. Here's to hoping I don't have to eat crow.
 

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Even if the virus spread slows in the summer (and its not just going to disappear), it will pick up again in the fall. We will be living with this until we have a vaccine or a majority of the population has been infected.
 

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Transmit quickly or transmit slowly, you can be sure either way, that a very large group of consumers are still not going to be living the way they use to live.

You tell me that the 10 rattle snakes, in my back yard have now been reduced to only 1, it is still unlikely that I am going to want to go into my backyard.
 

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There has not been one oodle of evidence that this goes away during the summer. It is not the flu. Its been said over and over again. Also no evidence at all that it just vanishes when the tulips bloom (despite what Dr Trump says). Best to listen to medical professionals with decades of experience rather than Dr Trump.
 

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Even if the virus spread slows in the summer (and its not just going to disappear), it will pick up again in the fall. We will be living with this until we have a vaccine or a majority of the population has been infected.

Totally agree, this thing is NOT the influenza and will not just go away next month. It quite likely will be with us growing over the spring and start to get terrible in the summer/fall - depending on if our society can isolate and wash hands !!!

By then a bunch of us will have been infected and obviously survived so .... if there is a vaccine then the game changes.....

As soon as infect people by month stops rising then I am convinced and will buy into the market... I think when Canada and the US are having thousands die each day - yes thousands ! The markets will really drop... its coming and in reality its only 1 month away... On a bright note you wont have to wait too long for the suspense!!

Heres the next thought, if there are just a ton of people that die, there could be some real housing surpluses !!! Might be a good time to grab a rental property !!!! or two.... money will flow through estates and get spent/reinvested. Houses are a different story.
 

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As soon as infect people by month stops rising then I am convinced and will buy into the market... I think when Canada and the US are having thousands die each day - yes thousands ! The markets will really drop... its coming and in reality its only 1 month away... On a bright note you wont have to wait too long for the suspense!!

Heres the next thought, if there are just a ton of people that die, there could be some real housing surpluses !!! Might be a good time to grab a rental property !!!! or two.... money will flow through estates and get spent/reinvested. Houses are a different story.
Well before the virus just under 1000 Canadians were dying every day for years and not much of a housing surplus showed up.
 

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Well before the virus just under 1000 Canadians were dying every day for years and not much of a housing surplus showed up.
Federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu, in response to questions in a parliamentary committee, that “it is safe to assume” the number of Canadians who will fall ill with the virus: “Could be between 30% of the population … and 70%.”

Let's take the low end of 30%.

3.4% Mortality Rate estimated by WHO as of March 3 (mainly China, health system ramp up rapidly)
10.0% Italy (health system collapsed)
1.2% US so far (health system not yet collapsed)

The Swine Flu that a lot of Fox's pundit try to compare this to has a Morality Rate of 0.02%

Let assumes Canada health system does not collapsed in the short term, use 1% mortality rate.

Population of Canada 38 millions x 30% x 1% = 114,000 death

And yet people think " Some time in April folks will come to their senses and realize the virus is history"?

And if the health system collapsed (Ontario could face a critical shortage of ventilators within two months, other provinces are not far behind)

Population of Canada 38 millions x 30% x 10% = 1,140,000 death.

According to Dr. Fauci, an effective Vaccine is not expected to be widely available for 1.5-2 years.

I hope the scenario does not play out as above, but this thing is very far from being over.
 

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I have seen those sort of calculations before, but can't make sense of them.

Starting with Coronavirus Update (Live): 558,416 Cases and 25,262 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer. It says that China has had 3292 deaths as of today. Population is about 1.5Billion. What does 3292*100/1500000000 equal? That would be the % deaths. Worldometer says 2 per million or 2*100/1000000 = ??? Definitely not 3.4%.

You can do same calculation based on other countries. Population of Italy is about 60million. 8215 deaths. 0.014%, So why would we use 1% mortality rate for Canada?

Please show me where I am going wrong with my math.
 

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I have seen those sort of calculations before, but can't make sense of them.

Starting with Coronavirus Update (Live): 558,416 Cases and 25,262 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer. It says that China has had 3292 deaths as of today. Population is about 1.5Billion. What does 3292*100/1500000000 equal? That would be the % deaths. Worldometer says 2 per million or 2*100/1000000 = ??? Definitely not 3.4%.

You can do same calculation based on other countries. Population of Italy is about 60million. 8215 deaths. 0.014%, So why would we use 1% mortality rate for Canada?

Please show me where I am going wrong with my math.
It's of people infected. In China, only 80k were infected out of the 1.4B. If we don't control the spread using aggressive containment strategies like China, the proportion of the population that will become infected will likely rise to 30-60% of total population. Hence relaxing containment strategies early is likely to lead to a lot more people getting infected and dying.
 

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It's of people infected.
Mowan used it as a mortality rate.

3.4% Mortality Rate estimated by WHO as of March 3 (mainly China, health system ramp up rapidly)
10.0% Italy (health system collapsed)
1.2% US so far (health system not yet collapsed)

The Swine Flu that a lot of Fox's pundit try to compare this to has a Morality Rate of 0.02%

Let assumes Canada health system does not collapsed in the short term, use 1% mortality rate.
Italy has had 1333 cases per million of population. If we had same rate, we would have 38*1333=50654 cases. If mortality rate was 1%, we would have 506 deaths? At 10%, 5060. Not 114,000?

If I have this wrong, please advise.
 

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The experts simply don't know enough about the virus. It appears that it is more complicated to figure out because there are oddities in the statistics that don't make sense.

Why are certain age groups in one country suffer mild symptoms, but more severe symptoms in another country. Is the virus mutating or is there some other reason.

There is some evidence from China that the re-infection rate of the virus is 14%......but is it really re-infection, or is the testing flawed and they never were free of the virus ?

One thing appears certain. It is very highly contagious and spreads rapidly when given the opportunity. Almost any large gathering is producing many infections.

Dental conferences, funerals, weddings, parties, cruises, meetings and now the Mardi Gras in New Orleans (what were they thinking) are examples.

The message is clear........Stay home and don't mix in with any crowded areas.
 

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Unfortunately some data from Italy shows the malaria drug combination had no impact. In fact the outcomes were worse due to drug side effects than those taking a placebo.

One hope is the Gilead drug. It is only a treatment but has shown some promise. It began the first human clinical trials last week with 40 healthy patients.

NYC is fast approaching a catastrophic scenario where they may have to rank patients on a point scale on who lives and who dies.

At that point they say they would administer pain relief and symptom drugs to those removed from ventilators.

They may as well try the Gilead drug to see if they can save some lives. Although, maybe they couldn't because the patients were too sick.
 

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Doing similar calculation as above for USA.

Italy has had 1333 cases per million of population. If USA had same rate, they would have 330*1333=439,890 cases. If mortality rate based on number of cases was 1%, they would have 4398 deaths? If 10%, like Italy 43989 deaths.

Because of size of USA and Canada, national numbers will, like China, hopefully be lower than densely populated countries.

Numbers still seem low compared with flu. Something wrong with math?
 

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Doing similar calculation as above for USA.

Italy has had 1333 cases per million of population. If USA had same rate, they would have 330*1333=439,890 cases. If mortality rate based on number of cases was 1%, they would have 4398 deaths? If 10%, like Italy 43989 deaths.

Because of size of USA and Canada, national numbers will, like China, hopefully be lower than densely populated countries.

Numbers still seem low compared with flu. Something wrong with math?
Number will only be so low (cases/million) through containment. If we let up on containment efforts, we will approach 1 million cases per 1 million population.
 
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