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Discussion Starter #1
Ontario will enter Phase 3 of re-opening this Friday. As with the previous phases of re-opening, people will no doubt immediately start thinking about when the next phase will happen. But there is NO phase 4. Phase 3 is the final phase until there is a cure or a vaccine for Covid-19.

There may be some tweeking of the Phase 3 requirements, there may (probably) be some roll backs in some cases, etc. but generally speaking, this is it, the 'New Normal' from now on. I think there are many people who don't realize that yet and expect that there will be a Phase 4 date when everything will be back to 100% 'normal'. There is no such plan for a Phase 4.

Each Province has their own rules of course but they are all much the same.

So anything that is not allowed in Phase 3 will be allowed when? The answer is not until there is a cure or vaccine.

So what do you think the likely outcomes of all this will be in regards to various types of business and our everyday lives as we have lived them in the past?

For example, major sports is going to start up again but without fans in the stadiums and arenas. Can they survive over the long term without all those ticket sales and merchandising sales that make them money? Or will they be like a 3 legged stool with one leg missing? Are they doomed to go broke and out of business if no viable vaccine or cure is found for several years?

Can even a simple business like a restaurant, any restaurant, survive over the longer term if they have to maintain physical distancing and thus be limited to say 50% of their former business?

Can a business like London, Ontario's Storybook Gardens survive?
It would normally be full of kids every day now. It can't open under Phase 3 as is the case for all kinds of similar businesses.

It's fine to say businesses can now open with limits but that doesn't mean they can survive within those limits and it doesn't mean our lives will be the same as before at all.
 

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Ontario will enter Phase 3 of re-opening this Friday. As with the previous phases of re-opening, people will no doubt immediately start thinking about when the next phase will happen. But there is NO phase 4. Phase 3 is the final phase until there is a cure or a vaccine for Covid-19.

There may be some tweeking of the Phase 3 requirements, there may (probably) be some roll backs in some cases, etc. but generally speaking, this is it, the 'New Normal' from now on. I think there are many people who don't realize that yet and expect that there will be a Phase 4 date when everything will be back to 100% 'normal'. There is no such plan for a Phase 4.

Each Province has their own rules of course but they are all much the same.

So anything that is not allowed in Phase 3 will be allowed when? The answer is not until there is a cure or vaccine.
Call it phase 3, phase 3 with changes (actual phase 4), phase 3a or whatever ... there will be ongoing modifications to existing plans or new plans created.

The back to the "old normal" will likely take significant time (a year if we're lucky), as in worldwide cases have fallen to zero for multiple incubation periods and/or a vaccine or highly effective treatment is found.
 

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It does suck, but it prepares us for what may come in the future, even after a vaccine for this particular virus is found.

If another virus comes along, authorities have a better idea of what to do and when to do it.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Call it phase 3, phase 3 with changes (actual phase 4), phase 3a or whatever ... there will be ongoing modifications to existing plans or new plans created.

The back to the "old normal" will likely take significant time (a year if we're lucky), as in worldwide cases have fallen to zero for multiple incubation periods and/or a vaccine or highly effective treatment is found.
I think you are saying you are one of those who thinks we will go back to 100% cainvest before a cure or vaccine is available. We will not, not even if there are zero cases reported world wide for a month in a row or more. This is it, it will not change in any appreciable way till there is a vaccine or cure, there will be no 'or'. A small tweek perhaps here and there but for example a stadium will never be allowed to open and fill its seats with fans.

Just as they did going into this, the government at all levels will spoon feed us coming out of this. They aren't going to stand up and say, 'don't expect to go to a baseball game for the foreseeable future and by that I mean for YEARS'. They won't be that direct but if you listen carefully you will hear the message being given already.

Ontario actually announced 3 Phases back in late April and within Phase 2, various 'stages'. So right now, Ontario is entering Phase TWO, stage 3. The actual statement made on this Phase 2, stage 3 states, " This ongoing gradual assessment of public health measures will continue until the post-pandemic period when a vaccine or treatment for COVID-19 is available.”

Only after a cure or vaccine is found, will we enter PHASE 3 which is defined as the 'Recovery Phase.' Even at that point they are talking about things still being a 'new normal', not back to the 'old normal'. So if you listen, what they are saying is there will NEVER be a point at which we go back to the 'old normal', there will only be a 'new normal' which will be DIFFERENT than before.

Ontario unveils steps to reopen. Here's what the 'new normal' will look like
 

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I think you are saying you are one of those who thinks we will go back to 100% cainvest before a cure or vaccine is available. We will not, not even if there are zero cases reported world wide for a month in a row or more.
If woldwide active cases go to zero for months there is no medical reason not to go back to the old normal.
 

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I think that Ford is simply attempting to show that he is working hard ...... but in truth, this Phase III will force the Province to reverse course back to phase I (Not II) before September. This reversal will also allow Ford to reverse the back to school plans as well.
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I was laid off in March due to COVID from a place of worship (church) that seats around 1300 at max capacity. Currently we are permitted 30% of occupancy and then when you take into account physical distancing they have decided its not financially possible to re-open. My take is I will not be recalled back to work until a vaccine or treatment is in place. The CERB can only go on so long and who knows after that with the various suggestions being tossed around. So with this Final stage then specific reopenings going forward will be few and far between for a while. But on a positive note we have opened up one half of the building to allow local charity organizations to feed the homeless in our city. They feed about 700 meals each day in various locations and all meals are prepared by a real chef in our commerical kitchen. All of the regular locations for the needy to go to have been basically shutdown due to size restraints inside so something needed to be done. Daily and sometimes more food pickups are done from our local Costco who has an agreement with the parties involved to give all of their food that would normally be discarded. It is processed by many people before being sent out for others.
 

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So anything that is not allowed in Phase 3 will be allowed when? The answer is not until there is a cure or vaccine.
I hate to have to keep bringing it up, but what about the fact that there is no cure, there is no vaccine, and there are serious concerns that an effective vaccine might not be possible?

The issue right now is that it looks like the vaccines might only offer short term protection.

I don't think the general population will accept an indefinite shutdown, even now more people are shifting to enough is enough. In most areas there are only a handful of new cases a day, if any.
 

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Don't forget that it is possible for this virus to mutate out of existence.

Many plagues eventually run through the population and disappear entirely or reappear only in small clusters - and this was long before vaccines..

Of course the opposite is true, it could mutate to be even more virulent or it could simply just recycle each year or every several years like some influenza viruses - and some corona viruses in other species.

We don't know enough yet about resistance or herd immunity or how mutagenic it is to make any conclusions at this point.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
If woldwide active cases go to zero for months there is no medical reason not to go back to the old normal.
Try looking at the bigger picture cainvest.

I sincerely hope we will not go back to the 'old normal' when it comes to Long Term Care. I hope we will see an entire re-vamp of the system with far more government involvement.

I also hope we have learned our lesson in regards to sourcing PPE etc. and that will change to sourcing entirely in Canada. Price isn't everything as we have seen. They make make something cheaper in China but if you can't get it shipped to us or the USA buys up all the supply as they attempted to do, we need our own source.

I think bars are likely to have to re-close. Expecting to mix people and alcohol and still maintain distancing is I think foolish thinking. That's a 'tweek' back that I expect to see happening.

Some business experts are saying this could be the death of indoor malls. Not having an outside access kept them from even being able to open in Phase 2 as other places were able to do. When I think of a smaller indoor mall not to far from us, they were already hurting as people were shopping in the big box stores on the outskirts and many of the stores were hurting badly. It won't surprise me if many of the stores in indoor malls do not re-open. Margins were already small and being able to open while still restricting business with distancing etc. may just be beyond their ability to do and still make a profit.

Many companies are talking about not going back to the 'old normal' in terms of offices. Working from home is likely to become far more common than in the past. Productivity has actually shown to be higher in most cases.

I also expect business travel to be affected permanently as well. Companies have discovered they can do business just as effectively by video conferencing etc. The CEO of Delta Airlines does not expect business travel to EVER get back to 2019 levels.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
I hate to have to keep bringing it up, but what about the fact that there is no cure, there is no vaccine, and there are serious concerns that an effective vaccine might not be possible?

The issue right now is that it looks like the vaccines might only offer short term protection.

I don't think the general population will accept an indefinite shutdown, even now more people are shifting to enough is enough. In most areas there are only a handful of new cases a day, if any.
You are presenting a possible problem MrMatt but offering no solutions or answers.

If your scenario of no effective vaccine and a loss of public support for containment is correct, then how do you see the 'new normal' under those conditions? Are you suggesting the 'new normal' under those conditions will be we will see people ignoring any attempts to contain the virus and willingly going out and risking catching the virus.

'Oh, no effective vaccine. I can't stand this any more. I'm going to just ignore it all.' Is that how you see it?
 

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You are presenting a possible problem MrMatt but offering no solutions or answers.

If your scenario of no effective vaccine and a loss of public support for containment is correct, then how do you see the 'new normal' under those conditions? Are you suggesting the 'new normal' under those conditions will be we will see people ignoring any attempts to contain the virus and willingly going out and risking catching the virus.

'Oh, no effective vaccine. I can't stand this any more. I'm going to just ignore it all.' Is that how you see it?
I'm presenting a serious problem with the plan to stay on perpetual lockdowns and restrictions until a vaccine is developed. The basic concern is that a vaccine is not developed, or that it only lasts a few weeks/months.
Virus immunity may disappear within months: study

Quite simply there is data such as above, that any COVID19 immunity is very limited in time, and there is NO data that COVID19 immunity persists.

What I want to happen, and what I think will happen aren't the same.

I do see lockdown/restriction fatigue growing, and I think people ARE saying "I can't stand it anymore, I'm just going to ignore it all".
Have you seen the photos from the beaches?

I would like an effective vaccine available, and I agree that is the preferred solution.

However, since it looks like an effective vaccine will not happen, I don't think it's realistic to say "just wait for the vaccine". When you say "until we get a vaccine", you are effectively saying "this will never end". I don't think the people will accept that.

I want a better plan, maybe improved monitoring, and intense localized lockdowns to address breakouts.


I have to ask you, since there is no vaccine, and it looks like there will never be an effective vaccine, are you saying we should just stay locked down with closed borders "forever"? Do you think people will accept that?
 

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Try looking at the bigger picture cainvest.
Sure there are other aspects beyond the government "phase restrictions", problems existed before and will exist after said restrictions are lifted.

Here in MB things are getting closer to the old normal every week. Was in Costco last night, aisle arrows on the floor are gone and many people are shopping like normal passing by each other in aisles.

At least the gov will have an updated playbook now for future pandemics, if they happen.
 

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Discussion Starter #18
I'm presenting a serious problem with the plan to stay on perpetual lockdowns and restrictions until a vaccine is developed. The basic concern is that a vaccine is not developed, or that it only lasts a few weeks/months.
Virus immunity may disappear within months: study

Quite simply there is data such as above, that any COVID19 immunity is very limited in time, and there is NO data that COVID19 immunity persists.

What I want to happen, and what I think will happen aren't the same.

I do see lockdown/restriction fatigue growing, and I think people ARE saying "I can't stand it anymore, I'm just going to ignore it all".
Have you seen the photos from the beaches?

I would like an effective vaccine available, and I agree that is the preferred solution.

However, since it looks like an effective vaccine will not happen, I don't think it's realistic to say "just wait for the vaccine". When you say "until we get a vaccine", you are effectively saying "this will never end". I don't think the people will accept that.

I want a better plan, maybe improved monitoring, and intense localized lockdowns to address breakouts.


I have to ask you, since there is no vaccine, and it looks like there will never be an effective vaccine, are you saying we should just stay locked down with closed borders "forever"? Do you think people will accept that?
I understand all of that MrMatt but you are still just presenting a potential (if no vaccine) problem without offering any suggestions as to a solution. You are saying you want a plan from the government, why would any PERSON in government have a better idea than you might have of potential solutions.

IF we do not get an effective vaccine or treatment, then yes, this may well continue for a very long time. In that case each of us, not just the government is going to have to figure out how we will deal with it.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
Sure there are other aspects beyond the government "phase restrictions", problems existed before and will exist after said restrictions are lifted.

Here in MB things are getting closer to the old normal every week. Was in Costco last night, aisle arrows on the floor are gone and many people are shopping like normal passing by each other in aisles.

At least the gov will have an updated playbook now for future pandemics, if they happen.
You just had 5 new cases in Manitoba cainvest after 13 days of no cases at all. Do you think there might be some correlation there between a too lax attitude on the part of the public? If people think that because they have no cases they are free and clear, they are entirely wrong in that belief. There is no shortage of stupid people anywhere, including Manitoba.
 

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You just had 5 new cases in Manitoba cainvest after 13 days of no cases at all. Do you think there might be some correlation there between a too lax attitude on the part of the public? If people think that because they have no cases they are free and clear, they are entirely wrong in that belief. There is no shortage of stupid people anywhere, including Manitoba.
For sure, people here are more relaxed due to the low case numbers and honestly, so am I to a point. I didn't look into it myself but was told the 5 cases were all out of province travellers. Are people here becoming too relaxed ... possibly, but providing the case numbers stay low with little or no community spread it's all good. It would seem the lifted restriction (phase 3) on 14 day isolation for western province travel is allowing some new cases in. Hopefully they'll impose that restriction again if the numbers rise due to travellers.

Kind of timely how those travel related cases came up ... I'm meeting up with a friend visiting from Alberta tonight. :ROFLMAO:
 
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